Direction of change in Türkiye's main opposition CHP

Türkiye’s main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, lost the race for Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson to Özgür Özel over the weekend.

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Direction of change in Türkiye's main opposition CHP
Why the debate over a new Turkish constitution

Why the debate over a new Turkish constitution?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s address to Parliament’s opening session focused on his call for a new constitution. Stressing that Türkiye should draft a civilian constitution for the first time since the republic’s early years, the Turkish leader made the case that the 1982 Constitution, which was drafted by the junta that carried out the Sept. 12, 1980 coup, could not address the country’s needs. He thus urged everyone to answer his call for a new constitution “with a constructive approach.”

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The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, rejected President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s call on all political parties to draft a new constitution – as expected. Besides questioning the current administration’s legitimacy, on which he blames his latest election defeat, the CHP chairperson urged his former allies not to negotiate with the ruling People’s Alliance: “The six opposition leaders shared their views on the constitution with the public already. We have signed that document and unveiled it. As journalists, you are welcome to ask the other leaders why they choose to invalidate their signatures.”

The Good Party (IP) Chairperson Meral Akşener continues to confront the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the “table for six.” Recalling that she “drank the hemlock” for Kılıçdaroğlu’s victory, she recently said that “there is no such thing as the Nation Alliance anymore” and that “the IP and CHP are rivals.”

The Good Party (IP) took another step toward contesting next year’s municipal elections without joining any alliance as Kürşad Zorlu, the movement’s spokesperson, announced their decision to field mayoral candidates in all 81 provinces. As such, IP Chairperson Meral Akşener shut the door on a potential alliance with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) – at least for now.

Good Party (IP) Chairperson Meral Akşener is doubling down on “fielding mayoral candidates individually.” Although the People’s Alliance, led by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), talks about contesting mayoral races with “battering ram” candidates, Akşener remains inclined to get her party’s General Executive Council to make that decision permanent. She does not heed the warning of pro-Republican People’s Party (CHP) commentators that opposition mayors will not get reelected under the circumstances either.

Who is to blame for 'opposition-less' Turkish politics?

The attempt by the Good Party (IP) chairperson, Meral Akşener, not to form any alliances for next year’s municipal elections continues to set the political agenda in Türkiye. The current situation does not just highlight the opposition’s ongoing crisis. It also reflects on the May 2023 coalition that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) spearheaded. That is why Akşener’s new discourse, on top of the CHP’s internal strife and "change" debate, remains the subject of a heated political debate.

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Who is to blame for 'opposition-less' Turkish politics
Turkish opposition's anti-refugee stance threatens all of us

Turkish opposition's anti-refugee stance threatens all of us

It is no secret that the opposition Good Party (IP), the Victory Party (ZP) and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) fueled xenophobia in Türkiye with reference to Syrian asylum-seekers and illegal migration ahead of the May 2023 elections. The opposition’s joint presidential candidate and CHP chair, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, built his campaign around anti-refugee sentiment – which effectively triggered the negative side effects of the cost of living. It seems highly likely that the CHP and the rest will resort to the same tactics for next year’s municipal elections.

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As the Good Party (IP) Chairperson Meral Akşener’s criticism of the opposition alliance sets the political agenda, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost the 2023 presidential race, refuses to respond to Akşener or any right-wing party. Despite having formed the "grand coalition," he keeps mum and politely ignores questions from reporters.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan heavily criticized Türkiye’s opposition parties last week, arguing that he had failed to encounter “an opposition of our caliber and quality.” Recalling those opposition leaders refused to learn from their mistakes despite losing 17 times in a row, the president complained that the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), could not “alter its fascist DNA” and engaged in fascist behavior by questioning the legitimacy of the ballot box.

With just seven months left until Türkiye’s local elections, the opposition remains focused on assigning blame for their election defeat. One might argue that properly reflecting on what happened in May 2023 would benefit the new alliance model. Yet, commentators close to the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) make accusations against the alliance’s right-wing members, whose spokespeople make negative remarks about the alliance – which hardly amounts to meaningful analysis. If anything, the current debate threatens to alienate non-ideological voters, whom the opposition attempted to win over to secure a simple majority.

One might reasonably expect the "change" debate within the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to die down since Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, announced his decision to seek reelection in next year’s municipal elections – instead of running for CHP chairperson. The main opposition party continues to elect its provincial delegates yet it seems almost certain that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the incumbent, will be able to keep his job with no major problems. That is why he should find it easier to set his party’s agenda, but the CHP will presumably remain preoccupied with internal confrontations.

Whereas Imamoğlu’s decision de-escalated tensions around the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the main opposition party, pro-opposition columnists curiously interpreted that move as a challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It goes without saying that any politician would enjoy being compared to the Turkish leader, who has been in charge for 21 years and just secured another five years in office. By the same token, opposition leaders tend to criticize Erdoğan as part of their job, enjoying (openly or secretly) whenever he talks about them in his public appearances.

Established to tackle the political and economic crises of the 1990s, the AK Party encountered many challenges. It opted for what was possible and rational as opposed to ideology to skillfully analyze the future of world politics.

Türkiye’s governing alliance pays no attention to the opposition and prepares for next year’s local elections. The resulting political void is filled by a showdown between and within the opposition alliance’s members. As new details about past negotiations and disappointments surface in the media, the opposition continues to bleed internally.

The opposition seems unable to recover from its most recent election defeat. If anything, the ongoing crisis gives way to destruction. Having formed a "grand coalition" before the May 2023 elections, the "table for six" parties find it difficult to even analyze why they lost.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu took the stage in the final act of the "change" debate within the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). Issuing a call to action on social media, he essentially argued that the Turkish people demand “a change of CHP’s leadership and management in terms of generation and vision.” Imamoğlu’s emphasis on “youth” was a thinly veiled jab at the party’s 74-year-old chairperson, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson whom the opposition holds responsible for their defeat in May 2023 elections, has been fighting for survival in the face of mounting criticism. Trying to keep his seat, the 74-year-old politician presses all the buttons at once – as he had on the campaign trail. He likens CHP to a ship and insists that his job as its captain is to take it to "the port" safely. He also counters the increasingly rampant discourse of change with an emphasis on renewal.

The CHP chairperson holds the upper hand because he controls the majority of party delegates. Accordingly, he can get reelected comfortably and handpick mayoral candidates. Yet, the leaked Zoom meeting suggests that Kılıçdaroğlu must sack a large number of CHP executives. By contrast, Imamoğlu needs to step into the arena.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) provincial leaders Thursday that his movement wanted to capture opposition-held municipalities, starting with Istanbul and Ankara, in the March 2024 local elections.

Five weeks have passed since the most critical election in Türkiye’s recent political history, yet the impact of that vote remains a subject of debate.