What Russia is hoping for after pulling the plug on the Ukraine grain deal
Russia declaring the end of the grain agreement, the Prigozhin uprising, and the post-Vilnius Summit show that it wants the cards to be reshuffled. The Prigozhin uprising exposed weaknesses and rifts in the Russian military, resulting in a loss of political reputation for Putin. It has become clear that Russia cannot achieve a clear victory on the front lines in the near future. However, the slow progress of its counteroffensive indicates that Ukraine also cannot achieve a quick resolution. This balance situation indicates that the war could potentially extend over years, unless Putin makes a sudden decision to withdraw. It is known that the Russian military faces significant manpower and logistical challenges. In this scenario where military superiority is not attainable, we observe the use of asymmetric advantages such as the cancellation of the grain agreement.
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Is the Ukraine War coming to an end?
The Ukrainian forces are launching a counteroffensive, aiming to achieve a decisive result and bring an end to the Russian occupation. However, due to their lack of air superiority, they risk suffering significant losses in this attack. The outcome of this offensive will determine whether discussions about the end of the war can begin or if the conflict will prolong for years to come.
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The Syrian regime is using earthquake diplomacy to gain more legitimacy and accelerate the normalization process in the region. Following the earthquake, Egyptian Foreign Minister Shukri met with Assad in Damascus and delivered humanitarian aid to Syria through the regime. The day after the visit of the UAE Foreign Minister al-Nahyan, who is trying to lead the normalization process with Syria, Assad allowed UN aid teams to cross into opposition-controlled areas of Syria. It is no secret that many Arab countries, including the UAE and Egypt, prefer normalizing ties with the Syrian regime. Although the American administration has expressed its opposition to normalization efforts with the Assad regime in the region, there is no indication of serious pressure being exerted on this issue.
The two countries’ relationship had deteriorated with the pro-status quo Arab countries after the Arab insurgencies and revolutions erupted in 2011. As a result, the Middle East states were divided into two camps: pro-change and pro-status quo coalitions. However, after the consolidation of the status quo in the region and new dynamics of the area, the regional states have begun to normalize their relations with the rest of the region.
NGO volunteers work on the ground around the clock. In the recent past during the coronavirus pandemic, they delivered aid to people alongside government agencies. In the holy month of Ramadan, they serve meals. Every year, around Eid Al-Adha, volunteers work extra hard to help people around the globe by building bridges between donors and people in need. As such, they represent Türkiye through their excellent work.
It is necessary to uphold the sense of solidarity, which emerged among states after the earthquakes. Last but not least, one would hope that the humane way of thinking can triumph over the idea of interest and exploitation in international relations. This is a time to focus on moral values and solidarity – not realpolitik.
Türkiye’s Call for International Assistance and the International Community’s Response
Natural disasters, wars, and economic collapse tend to seriously undermine social order and make it impossible to address even people’s most basic needs. During such periods, it becomes difficult for communities to feed themselves, find shelter, receive medical attention, relocate, and communicate with others. Individuals and communities have provided emergency assistance to such individuals, without expecting anything in return, to address basic needs like food, shelter, and medical treatment throughout history.
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Experts Respond: How will the deadly earthquakes impact Türkiye’s foreign relations?
Southern Türkiye was jolted by twin earthquakes on February 6 that caused unprecedented devastation across an extremely vast area, impacting 11 provinces. Almost on par with the scale of the devastation, Türkiye has also received a huge amount of humanitarian aid from many countries with which Türkiye both has cordial and strained relations. In light of the considerable level of solidarity showcased by many countries, it is still unclear whether this atmosphere of solidarity and amicability will translate into tangible outcomes in the respective bilateral relations between Türkiye and these nations. Likewise, it is also unclear whether the solidarity displayed by countries with which Türkiye had tense relations until the earthquakes will cause a thaw in bilateral ties and lead to a new chapter in relations. We asked foreign policy experts to weigh in on these questions.
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Although Türkiye has had significant problems with NATO, the U.S., and the Western alliance in general in recent years, receiving serious humanitarian aid support during the 6 February earthquakes can be seen as a strong first step. However, the continuation of this and providing comprehensive and permanent support to Türkiye's rebuilding process, which may take at least a few years, will also be critical for the internal solidarity of the Western alliance. If Türkiye feels left alone in this matter in the medium and long term, it will be difficult to solve the priority problems in Turkish-American and Türkiye-Western relations. This will be a handicap in ensuring regional stability.
We see that this disaster, which tests the endurance of our people to an indescribable extent, once again reveals the character of our people who never give up.
The disaster in Türkiye has once again shown how states with problems in bilateral relations forget their hurdles when faced with a humanitarian crisis
The earthquake in Turkey has once again shown how social support networks can play a critical role in helping victims.
Türkiye’s rebuilding process, which may take at least a few years, will also be critical for the internal solidarity of the Western alliance.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to reshape the international balance of power. In this new era, Türkiye distinguishes itself thanks to its diplomatic activity. Indeed, the country has been so important that the Western media, which constantly refer to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as “the sultan,” cannot help but concede that cooperation with Türkiye is absolutely necessary. Surely enough, all eyes turned to Erdoğan when the world needed a broker between Russia and Ukraine, someone needed to create a "grain corridor" in the Black Sea and when Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership.
The Russian threat should be expected to consolidate the growing sense of solidarity among NATO allies in the long run and force Europe to change its perspective
The Turkish government adopted a dynamic approach toward the Ukraine crisis. Its purpose is to shelter the country from the war’s repercussions and to contribute to a policy with the potential to promote peace.
Through cooperation based on mutual trust and shared strategies, Turkey and Africa are taking firm steps forward in bilateral relations
For a better understanding of Turkey-Africa relations, we have asked experts to analyze different dimensions such as education, economy, diplomacy, and defense. At the same time, we have touched upon the importance of the ongoing Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit.
Turkey has been following a policy combining the second and the third styles of politics. Turkey has adopted a holistic approach in its relations with African countries, combining its soft power (humanitarian aid, nongovernmental organizations and trade) with hard power (defense industry and arms sales). That is, Turkey will continue to improve its relations with Africa in all sectors whether it be economic, trade, defense, agriculture, tourism or the struggle against terrorism. In order to deepen Turkish-African cooperation, Turkey will host the third Economy and Business Forum in October and the third Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit in December, both in Istanbul.
In Afghanistan, Turkey's sole agenda is to help constructive and moderate efforts to establish peace and stability
Afghans have a historic opportunity to decide their future and neighboring countries must help them by recognizing the new realities emerging in Afghanistan.
