Good cop, bad cop play against Turkey?

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean seem incapable of de-escalating. Although the situation on the Sirte-Jufra line in Libya remains under control thanks to Turkey’s diplomatic talks with the U.S. and Russia, last week’s explosion in Lebanon and the Greco-Egyptian maritime deal fueled tensions anew. Athens and Cairo recently announced that they had concluded an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement, directly challenging Turkey’s November 2019 deal with Libya. As a matter of fact, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias did not hesitate to describe that agreement as “the opposite” of the Turkish-Libyan treaty.

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Good cop bad cop play against Turkey
Turkey's proactive regional role and UAE's panic

Turkey's proactive regional role and UAE's panic

Turkey’s most recent steps in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean raised questions in foreign capitals about that country’s international standing. As Americans grappled with President Donald Trump’s call to delay the 2020 elections, the European media went berzerk over the Hagia Sophia’s reclassification as a mosque. On the one hand, they called on European leaders to respond to “Sultan” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom they charged with neo-Ottomanist expansionism. At the same time, European reporters appreciate that Erdoğan has been filling the power vacuum that the United States left behind, empowering his country in the process. They also understand that the Turkish president, as an experienced leader, does what his European counterparts fail to do and takes his country to a new level of agency.

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All eyes turned to Lebanon after Tuesday’s horrible explosion in Beirut. According to the Lebanese health minister, at least 154 people died in the accident and over 5,000 others survived with injuries. An estimated 200,000 to 300,000 citizens have been left homeless. Lebanon, where protests broke out in October over economic hardships, suffered a financial loss of between $10 billion and $15 billion from the explosion.

Most analysts call the explosion at the Port of Beirut Lebanon’s Chernobyl. It is the moment of truth that put the last nail in the coffin of the nation’s rotten and dysfunctional political system.

The Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque's reopening, an embodiment of Turkey’s free will, could not have been possible without Erdoğan’s leadership and the Turkish people’s confidence in him. Hagia Sophia’s "resurrection" has become a symbol of Turkey’s efforts to become a prominent player in the international arena. A missing piece of our national identity has thus been put back in place. No politician would ever dare to reverse this decision as long as Turkey remains a democracy.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have escalated in recent days amid Greek concerns over Turkey’s decision to issue a NAVTEX for the research vessel Oruç Reis to start drilling near the island of Kastellorizo. Athens, claiming that Ankara had violated Greece’s continental shelf, issued a counter-NAVTEX and placed its navy on high alert. Turkey rejected the Greek claim, reaffirming that the islands, including Kastellorizo, did not have a continental shelf, and deployed 15 warships to the area.

Preparations in Libya and Egypt's difficult test

Both sides of the Libyan conflict are getting ready for the Sirte-Jufra front. The attack on al-Watiya air base, probably by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), demonstrated both parties’ determination. As Turkey took precautions to prevent future attacks, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar held talks with the interior ministers of Libya and Malta on Monday.

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Preparations in Libya and Egypt's difficult test
Emerging power vacuums and Turkey s new activism

Emerging power vacuums and Turkey’s new activism

Hagia Sophia’s reinstatement as a mosque resulted in a sudden spike in Western media reports about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Needless to say, almost all of those stories were full of accusations and speculation about Turkey’s agenda.

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French President Emmanuel Macron once said the 'NATO is brain dead.' Considering all the confusion the alliance is facing at critical moments, this statement has some basis. Lack of trust among the member countries and lack of cooperation and coordination have become some pervasive features of the strongest military alliance in modern history.

With Turkey's support, forces loyal to Libya's internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) liberated al-Watiya air base from Khalifa Haftar's forces on May 18. The recapture of the air base, a key strategic site in the western part of the country, marked the start of a series of defeats for Haftar forces and their eventual retreat from western Libya.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters Friday that his administration was keeping a close eye on the Libya situation. He referred to increased diplomatic contacts between Turkey and Libya, including Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and top military commander Yaşar Güler’s recent visits to Tripoli, as "shadow marking." Erdoğan stressed that those visits took place "as part of a certain plan."

Following back-to-back successes by Government of National Accord, all sides seem to reorder positions

Germany's European Union presidency began yesterday. Given Chancellor Angela Merkel will quit politics in October 2021, she is likely to have a desire to make significant moves in the next six months to leave a lasting mark on European politics.

Tensions between Turkey and France have escalated over Libya. The latter is part of a group of countries infuriated by putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s most recent military defeats. Having failed to stop a Turkish vessel en route to Tripoli, Paris now seeks to limit Ankara’s room to maneuver through the European Union and NATO. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that his government would not allow Turkey’s “dangerous game” in Libya, as his foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, urged the EU to discuss the future of its relationship with the Turks “with nothing ruled out, without being naive.” He attempted to justify his call with reference to the organization’s own interests.

Libya has become a major focal point of the power struggle in the Eastern Mediterranean. That country’s future is directly related to energy politics, European security and North Africa’s stability. The United States Africa Command’s (AFRICOM) most recent announcement about Russian aircraft bombing Libyan government forces in Sirte demonstrated how closely Washington is watching the Russian presence in Libya – despite major distractions like the upcoming presidential election.

Ankara’s ability to reshape geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean has demonstrated the need for Europe to engage with Turkey under new terms

Tensions have once again peaked between Turkey and Greece over a number of traditional disputes involving the Aegean and Cyprus, as well as over recent disagreements regarding maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean. Athens has attempted to invalidate Turkey’s November 2019 agreement with Libya to limit Turkish control over area in the Eastern Mediterranean spanning to the Gulf of Antalya. Athens believes it can pursue an unjust and maximalist policy with support from France, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Greek Cypriots. Given the recent dispute over the Aegean continental shelf, the Eastern Mediterranean has emerged as the main platform for a renewed rivalry between Turkey and Greece.

Putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s western front in Libya collapsed last week as the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) captured the strategically important al-Watiya air base to the southwest of Tripoli. The liberation of Tarhunah, a town some 65 kilometers (40 miles) to the capital’s southeast, will completely break the siege of Tripoli.

The coronavirus pandemic hasn't just made people obsessed with hand hygiene and social distancing. In fact, we are equally eager to predict how the world will change post-pandemic – hence the wrangling among political leaders regarding the economic crisis that this public health emergency will ensure.

Turkey’s Health Minister Fahrettin Koca has become the embodiment of the country’s fight against the coronavirus. He urged everyone last week to “declare their own state of emergency” – possibly suggesting that the Turkish government was not prepared to impose an official curfew yet.

As China declares victory over the coronavirus, the World Health Organization (WHO) says Europe has become the pandemic’s epicenter. With Italy’s death toll on the rise, Western leaders have responded to the crisis in different ways. It is possible to argue that ideology, together with their respective health care systems’ total capacity and leadership styles, played some role there.