The events of 2023 have significantly diversified potential geopolitical and strategic scenarios for 2024.

The mass killings carried out by Israel in response to the large-scale Hamas attack on Oct. 7 have caused a great reaction, both in the region and around the world. As Israeli attacks continued to commit all kinds of war crimes, even some of the Western states that have been giving unconditional support to Israel began to call on Israel to stop its atrocities.

The prisoner exchange agreement reached between Israel and Hamas marks a significant turning point in the course of the war. The agreement implies that Israel has stepped back from its pledge to halt operations until all prisoners are released. However, it is clear that Israeli attacks will continue after a brief hiatus. Predicting that the release of all Hamas prisoners will take months, if not years, it is not difficult to anticipate that the conflict will intermittently intensify and persist for an extended period. The events since October 7 have become the foremost agenda item in the region, transforming the pursuit of a solution to the Palestinian issue into a new driving force. Therefore, in the coming period, we can expect the Gaza war to continue with its ups and downs, while diplomatic efforts for a final resolution intensify.

Navigating a tumultuous week in the U.S. presidential race, it's evident that leadership crises persist in both parties. Tuesday's elections in Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky revealed that despite Biden's waning popularity, Republicans face an uphill battle. The ongoing potency of the abortion issue for Democrats and the sustained resistance against Trumpian candidates were evident. Surveys highlighting Biden's perceived disadvantage in age and the challenge of presenting a vibrant alternative to Trump contribute to the complexity.

The Biden administration hasn't fundamentally altered its unwavering support for Israel since the beginning of the crisis. However, in the face of heavy criticism from the international community, regional countries, and even its own party and American public, especially in the past two weeks, it has started emphasizing the humanitarian crisis more. As Washington increasingly finds itself isolated on the international stage, it has begun to add qualifiers, such as the need to protect civilians and ensure humanitarian aid access, while reiterating its full support for Israel. Reports have also suggested that Israel is preparing for a large-scale invasion of Gaza, but Washington is recommending a narrower operation that takes into account the safety of hostages and civilians. The change in rhetoric seems to reflect the administration's growing awareness of the need to alleviate public pressure.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens to spread across the region and exacerbate great power competition. As United States military bases in Iraq and Syria come under drone attacks more and more frequently, a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea shot down cruise missiles that the Houthi rebels in Yemen fired at Israel – harassing fire from Iran’s proxies.

The non-Western world viewed U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel as unconditional support for that country’s heavy bombardment and blockade of the Gaza Strip. Blaming Hamas – “the other team” – for the killing of more than 500 Palestinians at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital, the U.S. President neither shared any evidence nor talked about forming an international committee to investigate what happened.

Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has been underway for 12 days. Preparing for a ground operation, the Israeli army kills hundreds of Palestinians every single day. The strict blockade of Gaza, which prevents the delivery of humanitarian aid, has already rendered hospitals in the besieged Palestinian enclave unable to operate. As relief supplies pile up in Egypt, the tragedy in Gaza worsens. The following remark by Philippe Lazzarini, Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), best summarizes what is happening: “Gaza is being strangled, and it seems that the world right now has lost its humanity.”

In President Biden's visit to Israel on Wednesday, it wouldn't be surprising if he reiterates his 'unconditional' support while also placing veiled conditions on the Gaza operation. Statements by Secretary of State Blinken during his shuttle diplomacy in the region highlighted how uncomfortable regional countries are with Israel's attacks. Biden's meetings with King Abdullah of Jordan, President Sisi of Egypt, and Palestinian leader Abbas indicate his reluctance to provide Israel with unwavering, unconditional support and his consideration of regional dynamics. Despite his initial statement of unconditional support for Israel, it could be argued that he insists on the condition that it does not escalate into a regional conflict.

Since the very first moments of the latest Hamas attacks against Israel and the Israeli attacks against the Gaza Strip, the global Western powers have declared their unconditional support for the Israeli security forces in the form of military, political, diplomatic and economic support. After the latest wave of the escalation of violence and tension in the Palestinian lands, the Israeli side and its Western allies started to blame and demonize Hamas and other Palestinian actors as the only responsible actors in the cycle of violence. As usual, no big Western power, namely the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, has tried to hold Israel responsible for the violence committed against innocent civilians in the Gaza Strip (or in the West Bank).

New geopolitical transformations are taking place in world politics as the inability of international organizations, starting with the United Nations, to promote peace and security encourages all countries to prepare for new solutions, cooperations and rivalries.

The Biden administration is careful not to create expectations regarding the prisoner exchange agreement with Iran, aiming to emphasize that such "humanitarian" efforts are separate from the nuclear issue. Immediately after the successful exchange, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran, indicating that the situation is not merely a simple prisoner swap. The fact that the exchange also involves the release of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue frozen in South Korea for humanitarian purchases shows that it is more than just a prisoner exchange. The U.S. government, perhaps to avoid any political cost domestically, is both imposing new sanctions and claiming that it has no connection to the stalled nuclear negotiation process.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s trip to New York highlighted the question of United Nations reform anew.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s address at the 78th United Nations General Assembly provided a profound insight into the global and regional priorities that guide Turkish foreign policy. In an era marked by escalating global and regional power rivalries, growing global uncertainties and a changing regional geopolitical landscape prevalent with security challenges, Türkiye faces the imperative of redefining its foreign policy.

I am in New York City, where the heart of diplomacy is beating, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. This year’s general debate theme, which takes place after the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) expansion and the G-20 summit in New Delhi, India, will be “rebuilding trust and reigniting global solidarity.”

The People’s Republic of China and India are two Asian global powers in the non-Western part of the world, with their huge populations, fast-growing economies and distinct political cultures. The increasing diplomatic and economic influence of the two countries has increased the importance of Sino-Indian relations. They are the two potential countries that can greatly change the global balance of power. The question is whether they are partners or rivals. Today, I will try to answer this question briefly.

In a world marked by escalating global power struggles and growing uncertainty, the United Nations, as the foremost international organization, will once again take center stage at the upcoming General Assembly. Unsurprisingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will abstain from attending, as has been their custom during the annual New York gathering each September.