It would be accurate to suggest that the demise of the post-World War I order in the Middle East began on Sept. 11, 2001. The U.S. response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks triggered a period of prolonged transformation and a series of crises, including the invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent fall of the Taliban, the downfall of Saddam Hussein after the invasion of Iraq and the Arab revolts that started in December 2010.
Interestingly enough, Iran and Israel were the two main regional powers to benefit from these developments. Saddam Hussein's fall meant the elimination of a mutual enemy for both countries. Furthermore, the newly formed Shiite government in Iraq contributed to Iran's growing regional influence. Similarly, the demise of the Taliban allowed Tehran to exert greater influence over Afghanistan and Pakistan. The fact that a number of U.S. interventions in the Middle East ended up empowering the Islamic Republic of Iran of all countries is nothing short of ironic.
If anyone actually thought that the Arab revolts, the most recent wave of change in the Middle East, would allow Iran and Israel to put pressure on the region, though, time has proved them wrong. In the end, a counter-revolutionary wave sponsored by Saudi Arabia helped restore the status quo. Against the backdrop of these developments, Iran emerged as the rising power in the Middle East.
As Hasan Kösebalaban suggests, Iran currently represents the greatest power holder in Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa. Although the Arab revolts caused a crisis in Syria, they created new opportunities for Iran in its relations with the United States. In this regard, nuclear negotiations and the anti-ISIS struggle allowed the Iranian government to transform how it relates to the United States – which, since the 1979 revolution, represented a struggle between the Great Satan and a rogue state. As a matter of fact, the voices of analysts calling for cooperation between the U.S. and Iran have become audible despite the Israel lobby. At this point, the Obama administration seems willing to tolerate opposition from Tel Aviv in order to turn over a new leaf with Tehran by persuading Iranian authorities to limit their nuclear program.
Many observers expected that the talks between the P5+1 and Iran, which began with the interim agreement in November 2013, to reach a conclusion in the 10th round that took place in Vienna. Instead, the parties agreed on continuing negotiations until July 1, 2015, thus preventing dialogue from coming to a halt – an undesired outcome for all sides. If the nuclear negotiations result in a final agreement, though, Iran's influence will grow in the foreseeable future.
Unsurprisingly, Saudi Arabia and others will be deeply disturbed by the growing influence of Iran, which would assist the United States against ISIS. The fact that Saud Al Faisal, the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia, made an unexpected visit to Vienna alone would attest to the level of frustration. Meanwhile, the extension of talks will provide the Republicans an opportunity to remind the Obama administration that they told him so. At the same time, the GOP could possibly buy into the notion that the extension works to Iran's advantage and bow to pressures from the Israel lobby to propose heavier sanctions against Tehran in Congress and put Mr. Obama in a tough spot. Looking at the big picture, however, one witnesses Iran making a smart move through nuclear negotiations and the anti-ISIS struggle in the regional chess game.
[Daily Sabah, 01 December 2014]
