Israel, which has paralyzed the Hezbollah organization, took a further decisive step by killing Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, on Sept. 27. All observers agree that the killing of Nasrallah will dramatically influence the future of not only Hezbollah and Lebanon but also the Middle East. In this article, I will underline some of the implications of this killing.
Before focusing on the implications of the assassination, we first need to contextualize the Hezbollah organization. It is important to know that Hezbollah has two complementary representations. First, Hezbollah was established as a reaction to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. In other words, Hezbollah was founded by a group of Lebanese Shiite people to force Israel to end the invasion of their country. As a matter of fact, Hezbollah successfully forced Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000. Therefore, many people consider Hezbollah a heroic organization, which also waged a successful war against Israel in 2006. Eventually, Hezbollah has been the most effective Lebanese political and security actor since then.
Second, Hezbollah, which was established as a proxy organization by Iran in Syria, is known as a vital actor in the Iranian-led resistance axis. Hezbollah has intervened in many regional crises in the name of this resistance axis. One of the most important and effective interventions by Hezbollah is its participation in the Syrian civil war on the side of the Bashar Assad regime. For years, the Assad regime, Iran and Hezbollah fought against the Syrian opposition and killed thousands of Syrian Sunni Muslims. Although they claimed they were fighting against terrorist organizations, both Iran and Hezbollah have been blamed for the deaths of thousands of innocent Syrian civilians. Since then, Hezbollah has fallen out of favor with Sunni Muslims and has been labeled a sectarian organization.
Therefore, there are many implications of the killing of Nasrallah.
Post-assassination changes
First of all, the killing will change the effectiveness and relevance of Hezbollah. It seems that the assassination of Nasrallah will dramatically influence the future of the organization. One of the reasons is the killing of the top first and foremost effective 20 leaders of Hezbollah by Israel. The experienced leadership and the entire command level were eliminated. Furthermore, considering the infiltration of Israeli agents, it will take time for the organization to recover from the damage.
Second, after being paralyzed, Hezbollah will lose its dominance in Lebanese politics. At least for a while, Hezbollah may remain in the background. One of the results of the decay of Hezbollah will be the decrease of the Iranian influence in Lebanese politics. The second reason will be the loss of trust in Iran by many Shiite and non-Shiite Lebanese political actors, since Iran could not defend them against the threats. The third result will be the rise of vulnerability in the already fragile Lebanese political system. Regional and global powers will surely exploit this vulnerable situation. Unfortunately, Lebanon may enter into a new period of civil war.
Third, Iran and its regional policies were severely damaged by the assassination of Nasrallah. Israel’s comprehensive attacks against Iran and Iranian proxies, the bombing of the Iranian Embassy in Syria, the Ismail Haniyeh assassination in Tehran, the suspicious death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and lastly the killing of Nasrallah jeopardize all of the political gains that Iran has been pursuing since 1979 under the slogan of “exporting the revolution.” Iran has largely lost its deterrence power. It seems that, from now on, Iran has to use a more peaceful political and security discourse. After withdrawing its attention from regional developments, Iran will focus on its domestic politics. It has many severe economic and social problems waiting for a solution. Additionally, Iran may intensify its efforts to increase its deterrence power. The most effective way of achieving this objective is the continuation of its uranium enrichment, which may cause a new crisis.
Fourth, the killing of Nasrallah will have important implications for the Middle Eastern region as well. It seems that after getting rid of the negative perception of Oct. 7, Israel seized an opportunity to initiate a regional design. Considering the unconditional support given by the U.S. and other Western countries, they support these Israeli initiatives. There is no Arab state resisting the Israeli and Western regional projections. At this point, they are immune from the newly emerging regional balance of power. However, this does not mean that they will not be affected in the near future. New regional conditions may lead to new political actors and new regional developments.
Furthermore, Iran’s withdrawal from the wider region may cause a power vacuum in some regional states, such as Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. It is not clear how other Arab states will react to this withdrawal. Iran will not serve as the main political other for Sunni Arab regimes anymore. Considering their unwillingness to deal with the Palestinian issue, Sunni Arab governments may be questioned by their respective populations. Eventually, a new wave of discontent may initiate in the Arab world.
Let’s wait and see.
