Traditionally, Türkiye-Iran relations have been defined by a mix of competition and cooperation. Sharing a long land border and possessing a multidimensional historical depth, numerous dynamics simultaneously affect the relationship between the two countries.

Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.

We're talking about the possibility of Israel's attacks on Gaza triggering a regional war after October 7. Recent developments actually indicate that we are already in the midst of a regional war. However, the fluctuating intensity of such conflicts and the fact that the parties involved are not always clearly defined make it difficult to label it as a regional war. The evolution of warfare between countries, occurring in complex ways across different arenas and activating the capacities of various parties, has made traditional, all-encompassing wars increasingly rare. Many countries now prefer proxy wars due to their lower cost, lower risk, and deniability.

A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.

The new year got off to an extremely busy start in Türkiye.

On Jan. 4, Tehran Times, an international newspaper of Iran, described Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the United States in Iraq, as the “architect” of the new regional geometry in the Middle East. On the same day, a terrorist attack occurred in Kerman, Iran, killing more than 100 civilians.

As uncertainty, competition and conflict gain momentum within the international system, Türkiye engages in diplomacy to play a more defining role in global and regional crises.

During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The prisoner exchange agreement reached between Israel and Hamas marks a significant turning point in the course of the war. The agreement implies that Israel has stepped back from its pledge to halt operations until all prisoners are released. However, it is clear that Israeli attacks will continue after a brief hiatus. Predicting that the release of all Hamas prisoners will take months, if not years, it is not difficult to anticipate that the conflict will intermittently intensify and persist for an extended period. The events since October 7 have become the foremost agenda item in the region, transforming the pursuit of a solution to the Palestinian issue into a new driving force. Therefore, in the coming period, we can expect the Gaza war to continue with its ups and downs, while diplomatic efforts for a final resolution intensify.

The operation launched by Hamas against Israel on Oct. 7 continues, accompanied by Israel’s extensive air and ground operations. Israel’s military attacks carried out to overcome the shock experienced within the country, reestablish military deterrence and eliminate Hamas through the collective punishment method have now completed their 24th day.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens to spread across the region and exacerbate great power competition. As United States military bases in Iraq and Syria come under drone attacks more and more frequently, a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea shot down cruise missiles that the Houthi rebels in Yemen fired at Israel – harassing fire from Iran’s proxies.

In President Biden's visit to Israel on Wednesday, it wouldn't be surprising if he reiterates his 'unconditional' support while also placing veiled conditions on the Gaza operation. Statements by Secretary of State Blinken during his shuttle diplomacy in the region highlighted how uncomfortable regional countries are with Israel's attacks. Biden's meetings with King Abdullah of Jordan, President Sisi of Egypt, and Palestinian leader Abbas indicate his reluctance to provide Israel with unwavering, unconditional support and his consideration of regional dynamics. Despite his initial statement of unconditional support for Israel, it could be argued that he insists on the condition that it does not escalate into a regional conflict.

Former President Trump's Middle East policy was extremely pro-Israel. Trump declared Jerusalem as Israel's capital to satisfy his evangelical base, arguing that Israel could normalize relations in the region without solving the Palestinian issue through the Abraham Accords. He presented the "Deal of the Century," a plan largely based on Israel's priorities, promising economic investments for Palestine.

Last Friday, Israel asked the United Nations to relocate 1.1 million Palestinians to the south of Gaza within 24 hours. Although the U.N. warned that such an evacuation was impossible and likely to entail devastating humanitarian issues, the Israeli army continues to prepare for a ground operation after a weeklong heavy bombardment. Driving the Palestinians to the south is widely seen as Israel’s multistep plan to completely eliminate Hamas’ entire capacity – including its tunnels. Experts argue that Tel Aviv made that decision to make up an excuse to kill civilians and reach its actual goal of making Gaza unhabitable. There is talk of the possibility of Israel forcing all Palestinians to move from Gaza, which it has blockaded for 16 years, to Egypt. It goes without saying that such a development would not only put Egypt in an extremely difficult position but also trigger humanitarian crises and radicalization in the region. Let us recall that the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, along with its decision to turn a blind eye to the humanitarian tragedy in Syria, helped various radical organizations to emerge or grow stronger.

Israel has been subjecting Gaza to a total blockade and heavy bombardment for more than a week. While the non-Western world speaks out against those measures, U.S. President Joe Biden offered his unconditional support to Tel Aviv – a development that threatens to cause the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to result in more devastation.

Hamas’ surprising attack on Israel on Oct. 7, followed by Israel’s ongoing and disproportionate military operation in Gaza, has the potential to become a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern history. Predicting the extent of Israel’s incursion into Gaza remains uncertain, and Hamas faces immense challenges in maintaining its resistance.