In the U.S. presidential elections, while the economy stands out as the most important issue influencing voters, the importance of immigration has been on the rise in recent years. The record number of crossings at the Mexican border in 2023 made this issue one of the country's top priorities. Republican criticism of the Biden administration's so-called 'open border policy' has been quite effective. Actions taken by Republican-led states like Texas and Florida, such as sending migrants to Democratic states like New York and Massachusetts via buses and planes, kept the issue in the spotlight. As many small towns struggled with strained municipal services and budgets due to the influx of new migrant populations, immigration and the border crisis became key topics in the presidential elections.
TRUMP'S IMMIGRATION POLICY
Trump promises to carry out the largest deportation operation in history if he comes to power, showing just how important the issue of immigration is, especially for Republican voters. According to Pew Research surveys, immigration was considered an important issue by 52% of all voters in the 2020 elections. Although this percentage fell to 48% in 2022, a survey released in September showed it had risen to 61%. After the 2016 elections, Trump sparked major controversy by imposing travel restrictions on several Muslim countries in the name of fighting terrorism, a move that went down in history as the 'Muslim ban.' Despite legal pushback, the Trump administration implemented harsh measures to limit both legal and illegal immigration.
The Trump administration took several steps to make immigration and asylum more difficult. It tried to block crossings at the Mexican border using a legal provision known as Title 42, citing the need to prevent infectious diseases. The Biden administration, which was also criticized for continuing this policy, did not attempt to prevent crossings as strictly as Trump. When the Biden administration ended the policy of turning migrants away at the border following the declaration of the end of the Covid-19 pandemic in May 2023, the U.S. experienced the highest number of migrant entries in its history by the end of the year. The Biden administration, which claimed to act in accordance with international law rather than closing the border or building walls as Trump had called for, failed to manage the border crisis, allowing immigration to become a political liability.
HARRIS'S STRATEGY
President Biden tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with 'solving the problem at its source' by managing relations with other countries in the immigration crisis. Harris was responsible for addressing economic issues and gang violence in Central American countries like El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, which send the most migrants to the U.S. Republicans were somewhat successful in holding Harris accountable for the border crisis by framing her as responsible for addressing these long-term economic problems in those countries. Although Harris supported a stricter border policy in June 2024 and backed the border security legislation Trump had opposed, she currently avoids discussing the immigration crisis, possibly to distance herself from the political costs of the issue.
Trump’s political success partially hinges on keeping the concerns of white voters about immigration and the economy at the forefront in an increasingly diverse country. For this reason, he continues his anti-immigration rhetoric, which he believes worked in the 2024 elections. In a televised debate with Harris, Trump frequently highlighted the issue of immigration, even bringing up sensational claims about Haitian immigrants eating people's pets in Springfield, Ohio. Despite having previously referred to immigrants as drug dealers, criminals, and rapists, Trump believes that such extreme rhetoric resonates with his base. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign seems to be avoiding making clear proposals on immigration, accepting the risk of allowing Trump to set the main narrative around the issue.
Trump and the Republicans successfully keep several points in the public discourse: that the border crisis amounts to an 'invasion' of the country, that drug cartels easily cross the border, that immigrants have criminal backgrounds, that they use healthcare services for free, that non-citizens vote in elections, and that immigrants pose a security risk in general. Harris's avoidance of directly opposing Trump’s promises of mass deportation and only responding to criticism about her weakness in handling the immigration crisis could be seen as a sign that she is struggling with this issue. Seemingly wary of alienating white voters in key states, Harris appears to miss an opportunity to increase support among Hispanic voters by not standing firmly against Trump's plan for mass deportations. By avoiding the topic that polls show favor Trump, Harris seems to be making a strategic choice, but the cost of leaving such an important issue to the opponent could be high.
