The United States will go to the elections on Nov. 5, and many internal and external observers for weeks have been discussing the political positions and discourses of the two candidates, Donald Trump representing the Republicans and Kamala Harris representing the Democrats. While discussing the possibilities, observers have been taking many personal, national and international parameters into consideration. Surely, the Nov. 5 elections will certainly be a very interesting one. Although the presidential race is an internal affair of the U.S., all governments around the world will closely watch the presidential elections wondering who will become the next president of the U.S. since it is still considered the most powerful state and hegemon of the world.
There are certain parameters to take into consideration while analyzing the U.S. election campaigns. The personalities of the two candidates are widely discussed in media and political circles. First of all, this is the first time that a U.S. presidential candidate has withdrawn from the race. In history, six American presidents chose not to run for reelection for the second term. However, unlike Joe Biden, none of them declared their candidacy first and withdrew it later. Biden was the oldest elected president in 2020. His presidency and candidacy were heavily discussed. Many physicians, political analysts, politicians and journalists asked Biden not to run for reelection for the second term mainly due to his age and health concerns. After his withdrawal, Biden explained his support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Secondly, Donald Trump, who lost the last election to Biden, received the largest number of votes than any previously elected U.S. president. He questioned the results and claimed that the elections were stolen from him through fraud. Trump’s claims led to the storming of the U.S. Capitol by his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, which shook American politics. That is why, Trump is determined to get revenge and to win the elections against the Democrats. It seems that another defeat for Trump may lead to political problems in the country. Therefore, many observers have pessimistic views about the future, claiming whether Trump wins the election or loses it, the outcomes will have similar negative effects on American democracy. The paradox that these observers have in common is they share the idea of “neither with Trump nor without him.”
Third, the two candidates have traditional positions regarding domestic issues. While Harris largely represents the Democrat Party by supporting the traditional economic, social and political standing of the party’s constituents, Trump’s views largely represent the perspectives of the Republican voters. While Democrats are more liberal and internationalist, Republicans are more conservative and isolationist. Accordingly, Democrat Harris has been asking liberals, disadvantageous groups and minorities to vote for her, while Trump mainly asks for conservative and economically liberal domestic groups' votes. However, Harris will face difficulties getting its traditional constituents' support. On the one hand, many Democrats do not want to vote for a president who supports Israel’s genocidal policies. On the other hand, they feel obliged to vote for Harris to prevent the return of "the worst." While the first choice will cause a lower turnout in the coming elections, the second one will cause a higher turnout, similar to the last presidential elections in 2020.
Furthermore, when we look at foreign policy issues, we see that there are similarities as well as differences in the candidates' perspectives. Harris clearly explained her ideas about immigration and border security. While she advocates for an immigration reform package, Trump is determined to take severe actions against both legal and illegal immigration. He claims that he will complete the wall at the American-Mexican border.
As for the climate issue, Harris considers global warming as an “existential threat” not only to the U.S. but also to all humanity. On the other side, Trump continues to question the scientific explanations of climate change. He has explained that he will withdraw the U.S. from the international platforms working on the climate crisis.
The perspectives of the two candidates regarding the global powers are largely different. While Harris is staunchly anti-Russian and tries to fortify the American position in Europe, Trump is a critic of the transatlantic alliance (NATO) and seeks to finish the Russian-Ukrainian war. Harris pointed out that she will continue to support Ukraine against “as long as it takes” to encounter the Russian threat. That is, unlike Harris, Trump, who explained that he would stop the U.S. aid to Ukraine, is determined to take more aggressive actions against China. Trump wants to challenge the rise of the Far Eastern country in all sectors, from technology to economy and military.
It seems the most significant common ground they meet is the Middle East, as there is not much difference between the policies of the two parties and/or the candidates on the matter. Although Trump had claimed that he would reverse Obama’s Middle Eastern policies during his first period, he could not do so. He even kept the main American actor, Bret McGurk, on the ground, so that McGurk continued to carry out strategies in the region. Therefore, there is no reason to expect that he will reverse the current U.S. administration in the Middle East.
There is also the shared understanding of the two candidates toward Israel, to which both Harris and Trump have explained their full support. They even declared their competition on endorsement of Israel, which may be the most depressing issue in the race for the American presidency. No candidate questions the Israeli atrocities against the Palestinians, while both of them are determined to continue sending military support to the aggressors. It seems that under either president, the U.S. will continue to pursue unilateral foreign policies to undermine principles of international law and decisions of international institutions.
