The framework for the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) “bold self-criticism” regarding the municipal election has become clear. Describing March 31 as a turning point, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reportedly spoke at the party’s Central Executive Committee (MYK) meeting on Tuesday. At that meeting, he stressed that a significant number of voters, who voted for the AK Party in May 2023, did not participate in Sunday’s election. Identifying the role of the rising cost of living, inflation, the declining living standards of pensioners and the selection of candidates as the main reasons behind the AK Party’s poor performance, Erdogan highlighted the responsibility of the headquarters, the party organization and candidates alike. The Turkish president’s warnings about the “lost of blood and soul, not just votes” and his comments –“no person around this table, including myself, can escape the responsibility of the March 31 election’s outcome” and “we will either realize our mistakes and get better or keep melting like ice facing the sun”– suggest that the AK Party is taking stock and analyzing what happened.

A path forward for AK Party

Obviously, the first step to preventing “the emergence of a wall between oneself and the nation” is to reflect on oneself, one’s party organization and one’s actions. It is to interpret the electorate’s message accurately and to do what is required. Replacing one’s team may be required but must not be considered adequate. In other words, taking stock should lead to a road map capable of persuading voters – one that the entire party should be willing to follow. The AK Party also needs a new brand of politics that suits economic recovery and the improvement of the living standards of low-income earners. It goes without saying that the AK Party’s bond with the electorate has weakened and the long years in power elicit some reactions. That makes comprehensive mobilization and an overhaul of how the party conducts its business absolutely necessary. That is because the March 31 elections, a new turning point, yielded a result different from the 2009 and 2019 municipal elections – when the AK Party witnessed a decline in its popular support. After 22 years and 17 elections, the AK Party finished behind the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Moreover, CHP-affiliated mayors will govern some of the AK Party’s strongholds in the Aegean, central Anatolia and the Black Sea regions. That, too, gave rise to certain challenges that the movement must confront.

CHP's social municipality strategy pays off

The reelection of CHP-affiliated mayors, who relied on "social municipality" and perception management, by a wide margin has strengthened that party’s drive to “stay in charge of municipalities before coming to power.” Having received the support of opposition voters, the CHP could reach out to conservatives through a number of municipalities in the Anatolian heartland that it just won. That some newly elected mayors, not just the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, have been spotted at morning prayers was just a case in point. The CHP may not have become the “new CHP” already, but it proved capable of mimicking the AK Party’s past methods and discourse – albeit to some degree. In other words, it is possible to conclude that the Republicans are going through a learning process. It would be a mistake for the AK Party to underestimate – or unnecessarily exaggerate – its opponent. Led by a master of politics, the AK Party can keep calm as it takes stock and, accordingly, update its teams and policies. Improving coordination, going over how business is conducted, and taking positive steps toward communicating with disgruntled voters would obviously create synergy as well. Over the next four years, the AK Party will find plenty of opportunities in party politics and international affairs. To size those opportunities, it is necessary to create a road map for the medium and long terms – not just the immediate future. [Daily Sabah, April 6, 2024]