The pressure keeps mounting on Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson, with just seven months left until next year’s elections in Türkiye. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been challenging the main opposition leader to run against him in next year’s elections if he has "the capability and courage." Kılıçdaroğlu responded to the president's challenge by inviting him to compare arguments in a televised debate – which still does not seem to weaken the impact of Erdoğan’s election challenge. I have repeatedly argued that Kılıçdaroğlu’s current position – the opposition’s joint presidential candidate but not quite yet – was quite convenient for the pro-government People’s Alliance. Indeed, Erdoğan has been tapping into that arsenal with great pleasure. Yet, the pressure on the CHP head has not been limited to Erdoğan’s moves. Those commentators, who do not think that Kılıçdaroğlu stands a chance against the incumbent, have stepped up their criticism, too. In this sense, the opposition circles have been critical of Kılıçdaroğlu’s “unsuccessful trip to the United States” as well as his perceived monopoly over the joint candidacy. The Good Party (IP) Chairperson Meral Akşener’s “electability” criterion, too, has been a source of fear among those folks that deem Erdoğan perfectly capable of securing a second-round victory. That is why Kılıçdaroğlu encounters pressure from the People’s Alliance and the opposition. In truth, the driving force behind that multilayered pressure has been Kılıçdaroğlu’s obvious success in another area. One way or another, the main opposition leader has positioned himself as the most likely person to receive the opposition’s endorsement by undermining all the other potential candidates. The opposition bloc’s decision to postpone the debate on endorsing a joint candidate – supposedly to prevent that candidate from being “tarnished” – played into Kılıçdaroğlu’s hand, too. Yet, the opposition – which was quite comfortable just a few months ago, believing that economic challenges would inevitably chip away at the government’s popularity – no longer seems to feel that way. The government’s social housing plan and additional steps to improve the living standards of low-income citizens changed the political atmosphere, mounting additional pressure on the “table for six” and Kılıçdaroğlu. That is why pro-opposition figures have been more vocal about the CHP chair not being “worthy of the presidency” for “lacking the necessary qualities.”

Cost of being late

The opposition’s worst mistake was to decide to wait until the election timeline to be announced before endorsing its candidate. Provided that Erdoğan will run on the People’s Alliance ticket and the election will take place no later than June 18, 2023, it hurt the opposition’s chances that the “table for six” turned the endorsement issue into a tiresome pursuit. Indeed, the opposition bloc cannot seem to break that vicious circle. They account for that delay by saying that they are focused on the “transition period” and trying to stop the candidate from being “tarnished.” It is my opinion that the opposition bloc’s approach suffers from certain assumptions from the parliamentary system. They are faced with Erdoğan, who taps into 20 years of experience to make fresh political moves quickly. Here is what they seem to disregard: It is rather difficult for any candidate to win the race by campaigning for just a few months under any presidential system. That is why the campaign must be treated as a marathon and the potential joint candidate needs to develop the kind of high profile that will make them more important than the six opposition leaders. By contrast, the chairmen and chairwoman seated around the “table for six” engage in negotiations as if the parliamentary system were still in place.

'Unstable coalition' criticism

Let us be fair, though. They know that they need a joint candidate to win a simple majority and try to stick together for that purpose – which means that they are aware that Türkiye has a new system of government. They have not, however, fully understood the presidential system when it comes to endorsing a candidate. In this sense, the opposition leaders are busy negotiating the terms of their coalition – as if Türkiye will elect a president under the parliamentary system. They seem to think that establishing a structure capable of running the country during the transition would inspire some sense of confidence and stability among voters. That is how they hope to address the criticism of their coalition being unstable. The opposition keeps building the hype for an “impossible joint candidate/miracle worker” as the clock keeps ticking. That candidate is supposed to defeat Erdoğan but act like a symbolic head of state – as if the parliamentary system were still in place. They are supposed to be a leader that can guide Türkiye in a crisis-ridden world yet heed the six opposition chairs. Let me reiterate that election campaigns under the presidential system are nothing like mayoral elections. They are marathons. The opposition keeps restricting the ability of their candidate(s) to become marathon runners – whether they opt for a joint candidate or multiple candidates. That is why, despite all the harsh criticism, Kılıçdaroğlu remains the potential candidate that is readiest among them all. [Daily Sabah, October 24, 2022]