President Biden is struggling to convince anyone but himself that he can win against Trump. On top of his debate performance severely shaking his candidacy, Biden can't prevent Trump from turning the failed assassination attempt into a significant political advantage. Unlike Trump, who secured full support at the Republican Party convention, Biden has virtually no backing within his own party. The image of Trump, who quickly recovered from a bullet wound, versus Biden, who is battling COVID, summarizes the race's atmosphere in the past few weeks. Reports that key party figures are suggesting he reconsider his candidacy, but Biden is resisting, indicate that his departure is just a matter of timing.
PARTY ELITES TELL BIDEN TO 'STEP ASIDE'
The postponement of the delegate poll planned for Wednesday to solidify Biden's candidacy suggests that Democrats are increasingly convinced of the need for a candidate change. This procedural poll, intended to confirm Biden's nomination by reaching the necessary delegate count in the primaries, was supposed to focus the convention on Trump. According to media reports, Senate Democratic Leader Schumer and House Democratic Leader Jeffries pushed for this delay. With tensions boiling within the party, finalizing Biden's nomination would have exposed internal rifts.
The fact that party elites are both delaying the delegate poll and urging Biden to withdraw, as leaked to the press, shows that the critical juncture has been reached. Reports of both Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer advising Biden to step aside, and his refusal to do so, highlight that even the party's heavyweights are no longer standing behind Biden. The highest-profile call yet came from California Representative Adam Schiff, running for the Senate in November and close to Pelosi, urging Biden to withdraw. Schiff declared, "Trump will undermine the foundations of American democracy, and I seriously doubt Biden will win in November."
POLLS AND CAMPAIGN FINANCING
Polls conducted after the debate fiasco showed support for Biden dropping in swing states, although Trump's lead was within the margin of error. Subsequent polls continued to show a decline in support for Biden, though some still suggested he could win. An AP-NORC poll conducted July 11-15 before the assassination attempt showed that two-thirds of Democrats believed Biden should withdraw. Post-assassination attempt polls are almost certain to worsen the picture for Biden. His resistance, claiming he hasn't seen a poll indicating he can't win, will weaken further as more unfavorable polls emerge.
Campaign financing issues are known to end campaigns in American elections. Biden, who previously stated only God could make him withdraw and that polls didn't show he couldn't win, recently implied he might step aside if advised by a doctor due to health reasons. On Wednesday, it was announced that Biden had contracted COVID and would be resting, yet he continued to appeal to donors via social media. Referring sarcastically to supporters of Trump, like Elon Musk, he urged his followers to donate, saying, "I’m sick ... from Musk and friends' attempts to buy the elections." It had been reported that major Democratic donors had frozen donations to both Biden's campaign and congressional campaigns. Biden aims to demonstrate to party elites that he still has broad support by gathering contributions from small donors.
THE KAMALA HARRIS FORMULA
With internal party pressures, negative poll results, campaign financing difficulties, and daily examples of his declining mental and physical capacity, it seems unlikely Biden can resist for long against the political winds favoring Trump. Democrats are increasingly pushing to break Biden's resistance. At this stage, the question of how Kamala Harris would fare against Trump as the natural alternative arises. It's hard to argue that Harris can win on her own profile, as she hasn't demonstrated significant leadership success over the past four years. On issues like the immigration crisis and relations with European allies, Harris hasn't effectively managed the areas Biden entrusted to her. Her advantage lies more in identity politics, as a woman and a non-white candidate, which will resonate with the Democratic base but won't be enough. A formula that unites and fully mobilizes the party is needed. During a period when Biden is resisting the obvious signs of his waning viability, the inability to have this discussion freely is Democrats' greatest disadvantage.
