Saudi gamble at delicate time: Detentions, oil price war

Saudi Arabia has been in the news for the last several weeks due to recent economic and political developments in the kingdom. If the government does not control the pace of the developments, it will be quite difficult to maintain social, economic and political stability. The ailing King Mohammad bin Salman and his son Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) took some seemingly significant but high-stake gambles in the last few weeks.

More
Saudi gamble at delicate time Detentions oil price war
With Soleimani dead and Iran vowing revenge what's next

With Soleimani dead and Iran vowing revenge, what's next?

Since the killing of Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad last week, there have been debates, questions and concerns about the potential implications of this attack on U.S. foreign policy and the international relations of the Middle East in general. The missile attacks of Iran on a base in Iraq and the debates about a Ukrainian airlines plane presumably shot down by a missile increased the level these discussions.

More

There will be a lot of questions about the state of global politics in 2020. The unpredictability and uncertainty of superpower behavior and instability of the international system generate a lot of question marks about the potential developments set to take shape in the coming year. Here are some of the issues and areas that we will continue to watch during 2020.

Despite large-scale developments, changes since start of decade, some problems triggering start of uprisings in Arab countries still exist

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is going through a major structural transformation in the last decade. This transformation is closely related to the transformation of power balance in the global scene.

Miscalculated steps in foreign policy have already changed the U.S.' image as one of the most 'concerned' world powers

'Welcome to the real world. It sucks. You're gonna love it.'

Last week, once again since 2004 there were rumors about a potential reunion of the characters from the TV show 'Friends' to produce a show together. This it seemed more serious than before as it seemed the characters had agreed to be part of such a project. Even the rumor itself excited the fanbase of the series. On social media Jennifer Aniston's Instagram picture of the six characters together continued this excitement. Of course the realization of such a project is yet to be seen.

More
Welcome to the real world It sucks You're gonna love
Time for the PKK and its sponsors to admit defeat

Time for the PKK and its sponsors to admit defeat

The PKK/YPG threat in the region is far from over, but the group's nationalist project — the so-called 'cantons' — are now dead in the water

More

The Arab League's approach to the Turkish counterterrorism operation east of the Euphrates is irrational and doesn't serve regional peace or stability

The primary purpose of the Turkish operation is to drive out terrorist groups threatening regional security and secure the area in line with international law

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in his address to the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA), in the opening ceremony of the new legislative year, clearly outlined Turkey's position concerning the east of the Euphrates River in northern Syria.

Israel's occupation of Palestine and constant attacks to the unarmed civilians prove the harm the country causes to the World peace, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said

Saudi Arabia's Aramco, one of the biggest companies in the world, was hit by armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also known as drones. A total of 18 drones and seven missiles were launched against the Saudi infrastructure. The attack was the worst on Middle Eastern oil facilities since Saddam Hussein set fire to Kuwait's oil wells in 1990. The attack knocked out 5% of the world's oil supply, and oil prices increased almost 20% as a result. Even though the attacks were claimed by Houthi rebels, Saudi Arabian officials blamed Iran, at least for providing weapons to the Houthis. Some officials even claimed that Iran was directly involved in the attacks.

This week's attack on the facilities of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, was no mere skirmish among proxies. Iran has allegedly fired missiles, loaded on drones, to strike at the heart of the Saudi oil industry. Although Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed the attack, already some fingers are pointing to Tehran. Hence a series of questions: have tensions in the Gulf, which have been escalating since May 2018, already spun out of control? Is the policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran giving way to war? Why did U.S. President Donald Trump escalate tensions right after sacking John Bolton, his hawkish national security adviser? What will be the Trump administration's military response to an attack that it considers a casus belli? As world leaders pack their bags for the United Nations General Assembly's opening session, the world is still trying to answer those questions.

Despite its ups and downs, the Astana Process is the only serious option currently playing a decisive role to create a permanent solution in the Syrian crisis

President Donald Trump's administration in Washington explicitly supported this ambitious alliance, which portrayed itself as the new powerhouse to reshape the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and the Crown Prince of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, Muhammed bin Zayed (MBZ), were the leading figures and sponsors of this project.

This chaotic period, which intensified or started with the Arab Spring insurgencies, has been deepening every other day..

The political and economic deadlock and protests that have been going on for the last eight months in Sudan demonstrate that the country suffers from a typical postcolonial illness, experienced by almost every other African nation.

Pentagon officials continue to maintain the same dysfunctional and hostile policies against Turkey. They are now using Turkey's purchase of the S-400 air defense systems from Russia as a pretext to pressure and threaten Turkey. The Pentagon's recently resigned chief Patrick Shanahan had warned his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar about economic sanctions and the abandonment of military cooperation between the two NATO allies.

The Saudi-UAE alliance's risky ventures, which designate Iran as an archrival and Turkey as an adversary, makes them vulnerable to demands from the U.S.-Israel axis and undermine their international credibility

The growing tension between the U.S. and Iran is in the spotlight in our region. Washington is approaching Iran with a policy of "maximum pressure." They have not only strengthened the sanctions but also sent an aircraft carrier to the Gulf.