Turkish raison d'être in northern Syria

Turkey's sole wish in Idlib is to maintain domestic and regional stability. This is what all involved actors must be aware of first.

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Turkish raison d' tre in northern Syria
Renewable alliances and maunderers in Idlib

Renewable alliances and maunderers in Idlib

Russia's eagerness to have a presence in the Mediterranean is an old, well-known and deep-rooted policy. Syria, the country that could offer Russia the best chance of reaching the Mediterranean, presented an incredible opportunity for the country to implement its policy of reaching warmer seas when Bashar Assad called for help from Moscow in 2015. Russia has already developed good relations with countries such as Iran and Syria to contain NATO countries and U.S. allies in this region.

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To solve the crisis in Idlib, the international community is hoping for the success of a four-nation summit and fresh diplomatic talks. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel and France's President Emmanuel Macron, scheduled to take place on March 5, keeps alive the hope of ending what the U.N. called “the worst humanitarian crisis of the 21st century” diplomatically.

The recent escalation of violence between Turkey and the Assad regime in violation of the Sochi deal marks a significantly tense moment that may risk a deterioration of relations between Ankara and Moscow. Turkey has given an ultimatum to the Assad regime to withdraw its troops outside of the zone encircled by Turkey's military observation points until the end of February. So far, the Assad regime has resisted the idea of withdrawal and continued to expand further into the territory. However, Turkey expects its Russian counterparts to either convince or force the Assad regime to comply with the conditions laid out as part of the Sochi deal that was signed in September 2018.

Turkey faces growing pressure to retreat from three locations: Idlib, where Turkish forces are trying to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe; Libya, with which the Turks concluded a defense pact; and the Eastern Mediterranean, where Turkey is defending its rights under international law.

There were too many controversial issues on the table in President Erdoğan’s recent visit to Washington and the meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Washington's continuing support for the People's Protection Units (YPG); the S-400 missiles; the situation with the F-35 fighter jets; Washington’s policy on the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) and other sanction bills against Turkey are urgent issues for Turkey that need to be tackled constructively by the American authorities. Only a reset in Turkish-American relations can assure a significant change, but the circumstances are not conducive to a reset. For the moment the Democratic Union Party (PYD) issue seems to be the biggest problem leading to constant tensions between the two countries.

Erdogan-Trump Summit

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, November 13. Kadir Ustun, Executive Director at SETA Foundation DC, discusses Erdogan-Trump summit, what President Erdogan has achieved in this visit.

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Erdogan-Trump Summit
What's on table for Erdoğan-Trump meeting

What's on table for Erdoğan-Trump meeting?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is in Washington, D.C. today for a highly anticipated meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. There are many issues on the two leaders' agenda, including Turkey's procurement of the Russian S-400 air defense system, Washington's relationship with the PKK terrorist organization's Syrian branch and the fight against the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ).

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday announced his decision to visit Washington. He reached that decision following a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, who invited him.

Another important meeting in Washington between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to be held next week. The state of Turkish-American relations and the crises between the countries make this meeting more critical than any other to date between the two leaders.

U.S. President Donald Trump changed his mind about pulling American troops out of Syria – again. The latest reversal of policy reflects the Pentagon's concerns that the U.S. withdrawal will play into the hands of Russia and Iran. The return of U.S. servicemen to Kobani and Qamishli, and the military buildup in eastern Syria suggest that the White House is on board.

PKK's existence in Turkey, Syria and northern Iraq is the number one national security problem for Turkey. This is the Turkish red line that Western media organs have been refusing to see

President Erdoğan vowed that Turkey will not stop working until Syria completes its reconstruction process

Last week, anti-Turkey activism in Washington reached new heights. For the last one month, the campaign against Turkey deteriorated the ties between the two countries at the public level. In addition to setting a tone against Turkey in the U.S., it also generated a serious reaction from the Turkish public against the U.S.

From sanctions against Turkey to cooperation with nonstate actors, the U.S. establishment seeks ways to help the PKK form a statelet in the region

The death of the Daesh leader is a significant development in the fight against the terror network. The literature on terror organizations argues that for terror groups utilizing religious discourse and religious framing for collective mobilization, the decapitation, death or imprisonment of leaders is a highly effective intervention.

Much has been written regarding Ankara's negotiations with Russia and the U.S. and the process and potential outcomes of the accords the countries have reached following intense diplomatic activity.

The PKK/YPG threat in the region is far from over, but the group's nationalist project — the so-called 'cantons' — are now dead in the water

Turkey's legitimate campaign in Syria needs further steps to establish terror-free areas in the region

The U.S. must realize that any activity by the YPG terror group can directly trigger Turkish operations to remove it from the region

Turkey's deals in Syria have provided a great opportunity for a more secure region, but there is still a lot of work to do