Who wants war in Middle East?

The Middle East is on fire and neither regional nor global actors do much to prevent further bloodshed in the region. Israel’s expansionist and supremacist policies in Palestine and in its periphery force all relevant actors into a regional war. The Israeli leadership knows well that none of the Western global actors dare to follow a deterrent policy against Israel. In addition, considering the deadly silence of the Arab world, there is no strong enough power that can prevent Israel from its genocidal military operations in the Gaza Strip and its brutal policies in the West Bank.

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Who wants war in Middle East
The future trajectories of the Middle East

The future trajectories of the Middle East

The developments in the Middle East after Oct. 7 have led to the emergence of a new insecurity wave in the region. A similar situation had been experienced with the onset of the Arab Spring, which altered the strategic environment of the Middle East significantly. Regional actors attempted to move away from the conflicts caused by the Arab Spring through normalization processes that began in 2020 and aimed at creating a new security environment based on cooperation. Now, they find themselves in a new conflictual setting.

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U.S. election outcomes and changes in leadership have significant implications for the world. Although continuity is often expected in many foreign policy issues, the profile and policy choices of a new president shape American foreign policy priorities. The political identities of Trump and Harris, who are competing in the upcoming November elections, are starkly different and will play a crucial role in determining the U.S. approach to global and regional issues.

Three hundred days have passed since Israel's massacres began. Over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed. When the war started, pessimistic scenarios about Israel's goals and the war's potential escalation have, unfortunately, come true one by one. After a series of assassinations carried out by the genocidal Israeli government in the past week, it is almost universally agreed that we have entered a "period of escalating conflicts."

The press circulated a report in November 2023 that the United States (US) would provide the terrorist organization PKK/PYD with short and medium-range air defense systems. The same reports stated that around 80 PKK terrorists were being trained. Last week, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) delivered a short-range air defense system, known as Avenger, to the PKK/PYD. This process will probably continue with medium-range air defense systems.

After the Oct. 7 attacks organized by Hamas against Israeli targets and Israel’s harsh reaction and genocidal policies have shown that the Western global powers, who have been intervening in the domestic affairs of other nations in the name of modernism, human rights and democracy for decades, are heavily dependent on the pro-Israeli lobby. Most so-called liberal Western states have abandoned their longtime liberal claims for the sake of Israeli interests. By mobilizing all of their resources, they have been supporting authoritarian regimes in the region, violating basic human rights and committing war crimes.

A NATO summit in the shadow of the Biden controversy

Although Washington was specially chosen for the 75th anniversary, Americans, and even the participants, were focused more on U.S. President Joe Biden and whether he would forget things during his speech.

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A NATO summit in the shadow of the Biden controversy
Democrats' Biden Dilemma

Democrats' Biden Dilemma

American politics are experiencing more activity than they have in a long time. While the political earthquake caused by President Biden's debate performance continues, his campaign's unequivocal statement of "I am absolutely not withdrawing" indicates his resistance to calls to withdraw from the race in the coming days. Details reported in the press suggest that Biden's family and close circle recommend that he continue in the race. This group, attempting to dismiss the debate performance as a mere mishap, argues that Biden has overcome past challenges and will overcome this one to defeat Trump. However, this time, the problem Biden must overcome is not external challenges but rather his own health issues, making it unlikely he can convince voters from this point onward.

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In a period when there was doubt whether Biden would even agree to debate Trump, he committed to three debates, with the first scheduled for June before the candidates were officially confirmed. This reflected anxiety within the Biden campaign. Despite positive economic signals, Biden was losing ground due to inflation and immigration issues, and struggled to dispel concerns about his age and mental acuity. To project confidence and counter claims that he was afraid to debate Trump, the Biden campaign insisted on a debate format without an audience.

In the dynamic landscape of global politics, Türkiye’s bid for membership in the BRICS group – which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – represents a strategic move poised to reshape its future. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent attendance at the BRICS meetings in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, underscores Türkiye’s efforts to refine its foreign policy. Although Türkiye has not yet formally applied for membership, Fidan expressed interest in joining BRICS during his recent visit to Beijing.

"The images from last night are proof of how Rafah has turned into hell on earth." These words come from UN High Commissioner for Refugees Philippe Lazarini. I can hardly describe the hellish scenes created by Israel bombing the tents in Rafah, which it had declared a safe zone for Palestinians. It’s more accurate to call it the point where words fail. This attack, following the International Criminal Court’s Chief Prosecutor seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, and the International Court of Justice ordering Israel to halt its operations in Rafah, clearly shows that the Israeli government disregards concepts like rights, law, justice, or international legitimacy. The Netanyahu administration, backed by Washington, continues to massacre innocent Palestinians, showing it acknowledges no authority.

Despite Hamas announcing its acceptance of the ceasefire on Monday, Israel stated that the agreement did not meet their desired level. However, they announced that they would send a delegation to Doha for negotiations. Additionally, they indicated that the Rafah operation would proceed as planned, showing no intention to heed Washington's demands. Despite CIA Director Bill Burns being in the region for the Doha talks and the Biden administration's clear opposition to the Rafah operation, the Netanyahu government shows no signs of backing down. Reports of the Biden administration halting arms shipments to Israel, thus delaying Netanyahu's Rafah operation, had made Hamas' acceptance of the ceasefire a critical turning point. However, Netanyahu's efforts to both continue and expand the conflict from the outset pose the biggest obstacle to ceasefire efforts.

In recent days, news suggesting progress in the discussions between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and approaching the stage of agreement, could herald a new era in the Middle East. Saudis are seeking support from the United States to develop 'peaceful' nuclear technology in response to Iran's nuclear capacity, as well as security assurances in the event of a potential war. The agreement, which includes cooperation in advanced technology and distancing from China, is critical for the Biden administration, as its support depends on it. However, it will be challenging for a government led by Netanyahu, who has always opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state, to accept the insistence of the Saudis on stopping the Gaza war and a two-state solution. The Biden administration aims to use the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia to sideline the Gaza issue and appear to have 'resolved' the Palestinian issue by the November elections, but Netanyahu remains the biggest obstacle to this.

The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran's direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran should be 'proportional,' also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, Iran's UAVs and missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, making the job of the Iron Dome relatively easier. However, Iran's low-intensity and controlled attack with low-cost weapons demonstrated that in a more 'real' war, Israel's task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel's defense to the forefront, seems to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that American foreign aid could reach the approval stage thanks to the attack on Israel indicates how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have decreased.

On Jan. 28, an armed attack occurred at the Santa Maria Church in Istanbul’s Sarıyer district, resulting in the loss of one life. The Counterterrorism and Intelligence Branch of the Istanbul Police Department arrested two foreign suspected members of the Daesh terrorist organization. Some 34 individuals, also detained in connection with the attack, were brought before a magistrate for potential arrest. The Interior Ministry reported 1,046 operations against Daesh from June 1, 2023, to present. Why did Daesh – dormant since 2017 – once again target Türkiye? Is the assault on Santa Maria Church an isolated incident, or does it signify the manifestation of the organization's broader regional plans? How can we decipher the attack given the timing, method, target, and profile of the assailants? What is the status of counterterrorism operations against Daesh? Prominent experts have provided their assessments for our readers.