Preparations in Libya and Egypt's difficult test

Both sides of the Libyan conflict are getting ready for the Sirte-Jufra front. The attack on al-Watiya air base, probably by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), demonstrated both parties’ determination. As Turkey took precautions to prevent future attacks, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar held talks with the interior ministers of Libya and Malta on Monday.

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Preparations in Libya and Egypt's difficult test
The purpose of the anti-Turkish campaign

The purpose of the anti-Turkish campaign

The effective steps Turkey has taken to fill the deepening power vacuum in its region have hurt the interests of many foreign governments. Those countries are unsettled by Turkey’s transformation into a regional and global player with game-changing capabilities under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership.

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With Turkey's support, forces loyal to Libya's internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) liberated al-Watiya air base from Khalifa Haftar's forces on May 18. The recapture of the air base, a key strategic site in the western part of the country, marked the start of a series of defeats for Haftar forces and their eventual retreat from western Libya.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters Friday that his administration was keeping a close eye on the Libya situation. He referred to increased diplomatic contacts between Turkey and Libya, including Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and top military commander Yaşar Güler’s recent visits to Tripoli, as "shadow marking." Erdoğan stressed that those visits took place "as part of a certain plan."

Libya's urgent need is a strong stability, which is only possible with the elimination of spoilers like Haftar and his primary sponsor, the UAE

Following back-to-back successes by Government of National Accord, all sides seem to reorder positions

3 crucial points in the Libyan crisis

After Libya's internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) – with Turkish military support – launched Operation Volcano of Rage against putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar and his militias, conditions on the ground changed dramatically.

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3 crucial points in the Libyan crisis
Egypt s unreasonable target in Libya

Egypt’s unreasonable target in Libya

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's latest comments on the Libyan crisis have led to a discussion of the Egyptian state. Many observers began to rethink the perception and power of Egypt over the last seven decades. Most observers agree that el-Sissi has downgraded the position of Egypt. After the military coup in 2013 – which brought el-Sissi to power – Egypt transformed into a sub-contractor of two ambitious Gulf monarchies, namely the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

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Libya has become a major focal point of the power struggle in the Eastern Mediterranean. That country’s future is directly related to energy politics, European security and North Africa’s stability. The United States Africa Command’s (AFRICOM) most recent announcement about Russian aircraft bombing Libyan government forces in Sirte demonstrated how closely Washington is watching the Russian presence in Libya – despite major distractions like the upcoming presidential election.

After a successful military operation by Libya's Government of National Accord (GNA) against the pro-Haftar militias and mercenaries over the last several weeks, Haftar and the states who support him began to talk about a cease-fire. However, most observers do not trust the putschist Haftar and supporting states. They question the sustainability of the cease-fire because of Haftar force’s repeated violations of not only cease-fires but also basic human rights. Besides, Haftar forces have repeatedly committed war crimes. For instance, they attacked civilian targets on the first day of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan and launched air attacks on hospitals and schools.

Turkish-Egyptian cooperation in Libya can offer much more to Egypt's long-term interests than Cairo's current alliance with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh

Tensions have once again peaked between Turkey and Greece over a number of traditional disputes involving the Aegean and Cyprus, as well as over recent disagreements regarding maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean. Athens has attempted to invalidate Turkey’s November 2019 agreement with Libya to limit Turkish control over area in the Eastern Mediterranean spanning to the Gulf of Antalya. Athens believes it can pursue an unjust and maximalist policy with support from France, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Greek Cypriots. Given the recent dispute over the Aegean continental shelf, the Eastern Mediterranean has emerged as the main platform for a renewed rivalry between Turkey and Greece.

As Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) attempts to liberate Sirte and Jufra, diplomatic talks are regaining momentum. The latest move came from Egypt, where President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi met putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar and Libyan politician Aguila Saleh before unveiling the Cairo Declaration. That document relates to a cease-fire, a road map for political reconciliation, the establishment of the Presidential Council and elections within 18 months. Although Russia and the U.S. endorsed the call for a cease-fire, the Cairo Declaration, which exclusively deals with eastern Libya and intends to keep Haftar in business, does not create common ground or reconcile other stakeholders, including Turkey. Hence Ankara’s description of the declaration as "stillborn."

Fayez al-Sarraj, Libya’s prime minister, visited the Turkish capital on Thursday to hold talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Unlike in the past, his hosts in Ankara welcomed a joyous Libyan leader, celebrating the liberation of Tripoli, including its international airport.

In Libya, the Government of National Accord's (GNA) forces continue to take control of critical locations around the country's capital Tripoli from militias loyal to warlord Khalifa Haftar. After the GNA's capture of the strategic al-Watiya air base two weeks ago, it managed to then take control of Tripoli International Airport. The seizure of the airport and the surrounding areas in the south and east of the city are critical achievements for the GNA. Haftar's forces are withdrawing to eastern and southern parts of the capital after their defeats. His militias also withdrew from Tarhuna, their last remaining stronghold in the western part of Libya. At the same time, a tacit agreement from the government's side was demonstrated as GNA troops did not attack the withdrawing forces. This handling of the Tarhuna withdrawal by the GNA and the pro-Haftar elements is a diplomatically promising step toward political talks.

Ankara-based think tank head comments on recent developments in Libya, recent government victories against warlord Haftar

The main focus of the politicians, academicians, researchers and intellectuals in the United States has been China for the last several decades as Americans believe China has the biggest potential to challenge the American hegemony. Publishing houses have been publishing books and academic journals have been covering research articles about China, a country that widely remains a mystery for most Americans; therefore, they closely follow developments about China to track not only political, military and economic developments but also its scientific and technological potential. In other words, there has been an increasing polarization between the U.S. and China, which has further accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic.

On April 4, 2019, the putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar started his well-funded and well-supported campaign to take Libya's capital Tripoli and topple the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) run by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Haftar's forces were initially successful in taking over many cities in Western Libya and encircled Tripoli.

As the world learns to live with the new normal in the post-pandemic period, all the ancient wars of words in Turkey’s political arena are already back. For days, the Turkish people have been talking about subtle hints from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) about a military coup, hate speech on social media, the future of political alliances and the prospect of newly established parties signing parliamentarians "on loan."

Despite the dominance of the coronavirus pandemic, the Libyan crisis is high on the agenda of international politics. The world has been watching the success of the Turkish-backed legitimate government against putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar.

Putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s western front in Libya collapsed last week as the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) captured the strategically important al-Watiya air base to the southwest of Tripoli. The liberation of Tarhunah, a town some 65 kilometers (40 miles) to the capital’s southeast, will completely break the siege of Tripoli.