Before the European Council's leaders' summit two months ago, experts and journalists in Turkey discussed the European Union's possible sanctions. The frozen EU agenda came into the Turkish public's focus with the sanctions threat. Both sides knew that sanctions were illogical and would not contribute to bilateral relations.

The TurkStream pipeline, a milestone project for both Turkey and Russia, marks its first anniversary since it delivered the Russian natural gas to Turkey and Europe on Jan. 8, 2020. In a general evaluation of its first year, the pipeline can be considered as a success for both Turkey and Russia, while its achievements are expected to increase more in the following years.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reciprocated Russian President Vladimir Putin's earlier remarks about him being "a man of his word who would go all the way for his country." He, too, described Putin as "someone who speaks his mind and keeps his promises."

The United States reached its long-anticipated decision on sanctions over Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia. Outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump imposed Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions on NATO ally Turkey's Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) under pressure from U.S. Congress. The sanctions, as they stand, are not necessarily severe, although there is the possibility of additional steps being taken. However, what is important is that there is now room for the incoming U.S. administration to reengage with Turkey.

Two news stories with completely opposite titles appeared in Western media last week. The first story was about Turkey allegedly provoking its NATO allies by testing the S-400 air defense system. The other related to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks on the “unprecedented” level of cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine, viewing the Ukrainian leader’s decision to award President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with the medal of honor as problematic for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. That development, The Times argued, could be detrimental to Erdoğan’s relationship with Putin.

As Turkey grows stronger, it must develop a new kind of relationship with not just the Western alliance but also Russia. The Black Sea may be a geopolitical space where that claim will be put to the test.

Armenia engaged in acts of aggression in Nagorno-Karabakh, days after its attack on Tovuz in western Azerbaijan. That country opened fire on its neighbor’s civilian population on Sunday, which elicited a strong military response from Baku. A number of villages have since come under Azerbaijani control. It would appear that Yerevan made a huge miscalculation in the Caucasus and did not take seriously enough Turkey’s commitment to stand in solidarity with Azerbaijan.

After Libya's internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) – with Turkish military support – launched Operation Volcano of Rage against putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar and his militias, conditions on the ground changed dramatically.

Tensions between Turkey and France have escalated over Libya. The latter is part of a group of countries infuriated by putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s most recent military defeats. Having failed to stop a Turkish vessel en route to Tripoli, Paris now seeks to limit Ankara’s room to maneuver through the European Union and NATO. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that his government would not allow Turkey’s “dangerous game” in Libya, as his foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, urged the EU to discuss the future of its relationship with the Turks “with nothing ruled out, without being naive.” He attempted to justify his call with reference to the organization’s own interests.

The main focus of the politicians, academicians, researchers and intellectuals in the United States has been China for the last several decades as Americans believe China has the biggest potential to challenge the American hegemony. Publishing houses have been publishing books and academic journals have been covering research articles about China, a country that widely remains a mystery for most Americans; therefore, they closely follow developments about China to track not only political, military and economic developments but also its scientific and technological potential. In other words, there has been an increasing polarization between the U.S. and China, which has further accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic.

After a six-hour meeting between leaders and technical committees, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart announced a cease-fire for Syria's Idlib. During the meeting at the Kremlin, the presidents gave short speeches. The whole world followed the process as the decisions could trigger an escalation in violence while intensifying the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Syria. Turkey and Russia both wanted to end the civil war but were unwilling to concede their positions. For both Turkey and Russia, bilateral relations were at stake as well.

Turkey's objectives amid the recent tensions in Idlib are clear and the scope of a possible military operation would be limited..

There is an ongoing debate on Turkey's foreign policy decisions vis-a-vis the brewing crisis in Idlib. A rhetorical whirlpool has emerged around tensions with Russia, the significance of U.S. and EU statements, and Turkey's homework for Idlib.

The recent escalation of tensions around Idlib which have developed in response to coordinated attacks by the Syrian regime and Russia have put the pledges of the Astana and Sochi peace processes under a heavy strain..

Despite supporting opposite sides, Turkey and Russia have maintained dialogue for the last several years in the Syrian crisis. Together with Iran, another Bashar Assad supporter, they initiated the Astana Process. They have taken several significant steps to lessen the level of violence in the country. However, the Assad regime has insistently violated the cease-fire and continued its attacks against the opposition and civilian targets.

With Hungary, Bulgaria and Serbia to depend on TurkStream, Turkey’s importance to increase in terms of energy security

There will be a lot of questions about the state of global politics in 2020. The unpredictability and uncertainty of superpower behavior and instability of the international system generate a lot of question marks about the potential developments set to take shape in the coming year. Here are some of the issues and areas that we will continue to watch during 2020.