Five weeks have passed since the most critical election in Türkiye’s recent political history, yet the impact of that vote remains a subject of debate.

Türkiye’s opposition parties continue to reflect on last month’s elections. The pro-opposition Nation Alliance has temporarily disbanded as its members remain preoccupied with their internal debates.

Losing the May 2023 elections dragged Türkiye’s opposition parties into a crisis of “change” and “taking stock.” The leadership fight within the Republican People’s Party (CHP) continues to capture the Turkish people’s attention.

Türkiye’s main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, refuses to change. On Tuesday, he described President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a threat to the country’s survival. His combative tone was obviously part of an attempt to resist calls for change from within the Republican People’s Party (CHP). That is why Kılıçdaroğlu said that he would be willing to enlarge the opposition bloc popularly known as the "table for six" to “bring Türkiye into the light” – in defense of his decision to form a grand coalition ahead of the May 2023 elections.

Negotiations are already underway among opposition parties regarding next year’s municipal election. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Good Party (IP) are experiencing the tension of party congresses and, having failed to take stock of their latest defeat, their leaders continue to get calls to step down. Accordingly, there is a deepening polarization between supporters and opponents of those party leaders.

Erdoğan has a respectable track record. In addition to the 1994 mayoral race in Istanbul, he has won 16 popular contests (including several constitutional referendums) since 2002. In May 2023, after 21 years in power, the Turkish leader achieved a parliamentary majority with the People’s Alliance and received the Turkish people’s permission to serve five more years as president.

With Türkiye’s transition to a presidential system in April 2017, after a historic referendum that saw 51.4% of the votes cast in favor of the new system, political parties in Türkiye immediately began to adapt to the new system. The presidential system, which requires candidates to win an absolute majority of first-round votes, forged pre-election alliances. It became clear to all opposition parties, led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), that on their own they could not defeat Erdoğan or the AK Party (Justice and Development Party) under Erdoğan’s leadership?

After the presidential and parliamentarian elections held in Türkiye on May 14, Turkish and external observers analyzed the results to determine the winners or the losers. In this article, I will try to evaluate the winners of the elections.

After the May 14 elections in Turkey, disturbing comments emerged on social media platforms aimed at earthquake survivors. How earthquake survivors would affect the election outcome had been heavily speculated, and many had criticized the government for the way it handled the disaster. Foreign and domestic opposition media alike considered that the earthquake would shake support for incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the earthquake-hit provinces, yet the results of the election proved otherwise. This prompted supporters of the opposition to share hateful remarks towards the earthquake victims who voted for Erdoğan. Such actions were condemned by government officials and investigated by the police.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who won the May 14 elections, built his second-round campaign around the inclusive motto of “Türkiye’s Great Victory.” In line with his "balcony" speech on election night, that campaign signals that the entire country – except terrorists – will win on Sunday. In truth, this is Erdoğan’s way of inviting the supporters of all parties to help build the "Century of Türkiye" over the next five years.

Sinan Oğan, who contested the presidential election as the ATA Alliance’s candidate, endorsed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ahead of Sunday’s second round. Rejecting allegations of a “deal” between himself and the incumbent, he insisted that he acted in line with his “principles” and highlighted the importance of “stability” with reference to the People’s Alliance’s parliamentary majority.

Türkiye successfully held a historic election in line with democratic maturity. Governments around the world watched closely as 88.92% of eligible voters participated in the election and Turkish democracy proved its strength yet again. In the end, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan beat his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, by almost 5 percentage points. Meanwhile, the People’s Alliance claimed 322 parliamentary seats – the majority – with 49.5%.

Tens of millions of Turks went to the polls and cast their votes last Sunday to choose the next president and the 600-seat Parliament. Over 30 political parties and five multiparty political coalitions (the People’s Alliance, the Nation Alliance, the ATA Alliance, the Labor and Freedom Alliance, and the Union of Socialist Forces Alliance) competed in the elections. At first, there were four official candidates, namely, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Sinan Oğan and Muharrem Ince. However, after the withdrawal of Ince, only three of them competed for the Presidency.

We experienced another historic night on May 14. The number of votes President Erdoğan received, surpassing 27 million, represents the highest vote count ever recorded. Despite the theories that 5 million new voters would be a handicap for him, the sense of "enough is enough" among the electorate would help secure victory for the opposition, and the economic problems would guarantee a change in power, we saw that these claims did not materialize in the results. The problems among the opposition, their inability to offer a clear message despite the formulation of a joint program, and the difficulties faced by candidate Kılıçdaroğlu in persuading large masses determined the fate of the election. Thanks to the strong psychological advantage brought by the first round, Erdogan will secure a greater proportional advantage and win in the second round.

The election campaign has finally boiled down to a debate over the “real” nationalists. It is hardly surprising that nationalism, which has been on the rise globally since former U.S. President Donald Trump’s term, remains critically important in Türkiye – which continues to combat terrorists.

What international media have dubbed “the world’s most important election in 2023” is less than a week away. Whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins will have wide-ranging implications.

Türkiye has become one of five countries that build fifth-generation warplanes.