What direction will Trump's Türkiye policy take?
In the first week after Trump’s election victory, he named several people he intends to appoint to his cabinet, signaling that border security and immigration will be his top priorities.
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Continuity and change in U.S.-Türkiye ties
U.S. election outcomes and changes in leadership have significant implications for the world. Although continuity is often expected in many foreign policy issues, the profile and policy choices of a new president shape American foreign policy priorities. The political identities of Trump and Harris, who are competing in the upcoming November elections, are starkly different and will play a crucial role in determining the U.S. approach to global and regional issues.
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Türkiye has made significant advancements in its defense technology and capabilities which are essential in the face of threats posed by various terrorist organizations and the security risks from conflicts near its borders. Türkiye’s regional and global significance has also grown, as it strives for “a fairer world” where human rights, freedom, and dignity are upheld without discrimination, in line with the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. As President Erdoğan once declared, Türkiye’s “responsibility extends beyond securing our own safety and prosperity. Our strength lies in our resources, actions, and the aid we provide to the afflicted and oppressed worldwide, beginning with our immediate surroundings”. As such, the Century of Türkiye addresses a broad spectrum of domestic and international challenges, aiming for a future where Türkiye stands as a democratic, secure, and prosperous nation, exerting a constructive and influential role on the global stage.
Türkiye’s foreign policy has been gaining momentum in recent months as a series of developments bolster each other, taking place in quick succession.
Some analysts think ‘it’s too early’ to say all disputes will be resolved while others say two NATO allies still maintain ‘positive strategic relationship’
Following Türkiye’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership in the Turkish Parliament, the U.S. State Department notified Congress of a $23 billion (TL 698.52 billion) sale of fighter jets to Türkiye and an $8.6 billion sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets to Greece, another ally in the NATO. The sale to Türkiye includes 40 Lockheed Martin F-16s and equipment to modernize the existing fleet of 79 F-16s. Greece will receive 40 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters and related equipment.
After approval of Sweden's NATO bid and Raisi's visit
As the municipal election campaign gained momentum with the unveiling of mayoral candidates and the fine-tuning of their campaigns, two major developments took place in foreign policy: the Turkish Parliament’s approval of Sweden’s NATO admission on Tuesday and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to the Turkish capital, where Türkiye and Iran signed 10 agreements.
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US otherization policy toward Türkiye
The United States has been doing almost everything to otherize and alienate Türkiye throughout the last decade. The damaging steps taken by the last three U.S. governments, namely Barack Obama, Donald Trump and the current Joe Biden administrations, show that anti-Türkiye policy has become the state policy.
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The Turkish national defense minister affirmed Wednesday the ongoing commitment of Türkiye to revitalize the Black Sea Grain deal.
The Turkish national defense minister said Wednesday that Türkiye was monitoring the process of requesting the purchase of F-16 fighter jets from the United States, noting they were expecting to see concrete steps regarding the process "as soon as possible." Addressing negotiations with the U.S., Yaşar Güler urged the correction of attitudes and approaches that directly affect Türkiye's national security.
The political dynamics within the American Congress and the activities of lobbying groups have long been significant factors negatively impacting Turkish-American relations. Since the 1970s, Congress has constrained the broad authority of the White House in foreign policy, leading to decisions against Türkiye on issues such as Cyprus and Armenia. In recent years, Congress has extended its influence into areas like Syria and defense cooperation.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan started a new debate ahead of this week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Commenting on Sweden’s bid to join the Alliance, he argued that the relevant countries should “clear Türkiye’s path to European Union (EU) membership.” That statement aligned perfectly well with the readout of Erdoğan’s most recent phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden.
The meetings held by the Turkish delegation during their visit to Washington earlier this week once again showed how necessary constant dialogue is due to the busy agenda of Turkish-American relations. Apart from bilateral issues, Türkiye and the United States need to step up their efforts in order to work together on regional and global issues. It is no secret that there are issues where the two NATO allies do not agree or, worse yet, pursue opposing policies. However, many challenges such as hot war, food crisis, energy, great power rivalry and climate change make it all the more necessary to focus on shared interests.
Why does Türkiye want to buy F-16V aircraft and modernization kits? Why are there problems in procuring these aircraft and modernization kits? How would a lack of US sales approval affect Turkish-US relations?
In the aftermath of the twin quakes in Türkiye, we see that some states are trying to help beyond their capacities, while others are a little below par
Although Türkiye has had significant problems with NATO, the U.S., and the Western alliance in general in recent years, receiving serious humanitarian aid support during the 6 February earthquakes can be seen as a strong first step. However, the continuation of this and providing comprehensive and permanent support to Türkiye's rebuilding process, which may take at least a few years, will also be critical for the internal solidarity of the Western alliance. If Türkiye feels left alone in this matter in the medium and long term, it will be difficult to solve the priority problems in Turkish-American and Türkiye-Western relations. This will be a handicap in ensuring regional stability.
Türkiye’s rebuilding process, which may take at least a few years, will also be critical for the internal solidarity of the Western alliance.
Keeping in mind that Bolton’s threat has zero impact in Turkey, one can conclude that his real aim is to fuel doubts about election security.
