Is Sochi 2.0 possible?
The deadline for Bashar Assad’s retreat from Idlib has passed. Turkey remains committed to the Sochi agreement..
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Is there any hope for Idlib solution?
To solve the crisis in Idlib, the international community is hoping for the success of a four-nation summit and fresh diplomatic talks. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel and France's President Emmanuel Macron, scheduled to take place on March 5, keeps alive the hope of ending what the U.N. called “the worst humanitarian crisis of the 21st century” diplomatically.
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The recent escalation of violence between Turkey and the Assad regime in violation of the Sochi deal marks a significantly tense moment that may risk a deterioration of relations between Ankara and Moscow. Turkey has given an ultimatum to the Assad regime to withdraw its troops outside of the zone encircled by Turkey's military observation points until the end of February. So far, the Assad regime has resisted the idea of withdrawal and continued to expand further into the territory. However, Turkey expects its Russian counterparts to either convince or force the Assad regime to comply with the conditions laid out as part of the Sochi deal that was signed in September 2018.
By the end of February, Turkey expects Bashar Assad to withdraw to the agreed-upon cease-fire line stipulated in the Sochi agreement. Yet, nothing has come out of diplomatic negotiations between Ankara and Moscow.
Turkey's objectives amid the recent tensions in Idlib are clear and the scope of a possible military operation would be limited..
Turkey is fighting on three fronts to manage the Idlib crisis: a military operation, diplomacy and international public opinion.
Is the honeymoon over for Russia and Turkey?
It is true President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have had an amenable relationship. Turkey and Russia are also both regional actors that share partnerships on many issues. The recent cooperation between the two countries is not as black and white as foreign affairs and alliances between countries were during the Cold War. To call this period of cooperation a "honeymoon," however, would be incorrect.
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Idlib most challenging agenda in February
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described last week's regime attack in Idlib that claimed eight Turkish lives, as a "turning point" in the Syrian civil war. In addition to giving Bashar Assad time to retreat beyond the Turkish military observation posts by the end of the month, Erdoğan pledged that Turkey would push the regime forces away on its own if necessary.
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The Syria civil war has been a test for the international community since it began almost nine years ago. The world has failed to respond and stop the bloodshed as the worst humanitarian tragedy since World War II unfolded under its watchful eyes.
The recent escalation of tensions around Idlib which have developed in response to coordinated attacks by the Syrian regime and Russia have put the pledges of the Astana and Sochi peace processes under a heavy strain..
The Syrian civil war has always had great potential to worsen any day. Since May 2019, the Bashar Assad regime has been pummeling the Syrian opposition's last holdout in the northwestern province of Idlib.
SETA Security Radar attempts to anticipate the course of major security issues Turkey faces and how to develop and enhance sound and relevant responses within this increasingly challenging regional security environment.
With tensions between Iran and the United States de-escalating for now, there is talk about cease-fire agreements in Libya and Idlib.
Insight Turkey, one of the leading academic journals in Turkey, in its latest issue entitled as “Turkey’s New Foreign Policy: A Quest for Autonomy,” resonates on the importance of Turkey’s increasing role and effectiveness in the international realm.
President Erdoğan vowed that Turkey will not stop working until Syria completes its reconstruction process
This study is designed to deliver background information, to lay bare the course of the S-400 procurement process, and to provide the reasoning to better understand the responses to the famous five “wh” and “how” questions.
Turkish-American relations are strained again ahead of the delivery of S-400 air defense systems from Russia. In their Moscow meeting at the beginning of the week, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the plan to deliver the first set of S-400 air defense systems to Turkey in early July.
By speaking of the Adana agreement signed between Ankara and Damascus in 1998, Russian President Putin aims to encourage both sides to cooperate together for the future of Syria
U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to bring home thousands of American troops triggered a new rebalancing in Syria and the Middle East.
The latest issue of Insight Turkey, 'The Struggle over Central Asia: Chinese-Russian Rivalry and Turkey’s Comeback,' focuses on different topics including the latest developments in Central Asia, which has high potential but came under the spotlight only in recent years and also the highly important general and presidential June 24, 2018 elections in Turkey.
It is still unclear which superpower – Russia or the U.S. – has better ties with Turkey at the moment, as Ankara is open to working with anyone who respects its national security concerns
