Syria | SETA

Emergence of the new Syria

The revolution in Syria has achieved its goal, but everything is just beginning. The primary goal of the revolution was to topple the Assad regime. For 13 years, it came very close to toppling the regime from time to time, but what could not be achieved in 13 years was realized in 12 days, and the 61-year-old Baathist regime collapsed. The one responsible for 13 years of tears and bloodshed had to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia.

Shifting balances and power lines in Syria

The opposition's military gains hold the power to reshape Syria’s status quo or push Damascus into the heart of a wider regional conflict

Shifting power dynamics in Syria: Assad regime and allies face major setbacks

The Middle Eastern developments continue to set the agenda of international politics. The Al-Aqsa Flood has become a turning point for the whole region. The ongoing genocide in Gaza against the Palestinian people and the Israeli aggression against the sovereignty of regional countries, directly and indirectly, influence all regional dynamics. Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian proxies in Syria have dramatically changed the Syrian context as well. As a result of the shifted regional balance of power, the opposition forces, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), initiated a military operation against Syria's Bashar Assad regime on Nov. 27.

Assad's missed opportunity: Türkiye's push for the path to peace

Türkiye’s extended hand for normalization represented an opportunity for the Bashar Assad regime. Starting in the early months of 2023, Türkiye demonstrated its determination on this issue. Ensuring territorial integrity, clearing terrorism, enabling the return of refugees and ultimately establishing an inclusive and stable administration in Syria – without excluding the regime – offered Assad a viable way out.

Is Iran strengthening or becoming isolated?

Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.

Is Middle East entering new spiral of conflicts?

A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.

Who benefits from controlled proxy conflict?

The Middle East rang in the new year with assassinations and terror attacks. Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy leader of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Beirut last Tuesday. The following day, two bombings in Kirman, Iran (for which Daesh has claimed responsibility) killed 103 people. As those attacks shifted everyone’s attention to Israel, Iran and Hezbollah pledged to exact “revenge and a heavy price.”

The Gaza War Pushes International Community to Rethink Stance

It is clear that Tel Aviv, which never again wants to see a similar attack to that of October 7, does not care about international reactions. A possible ground operation in Gaza, the opening of a new front by Hezbollah, new attacks in Syria, and further developments in the West Bank are among the hot topics on the current agenda. Our region may experience the horrific repercussions of ambitious deterrence.