The revolution in Turkish intelligence

Celebrating its 97th anniversary, the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) has become one of the most prominent institutions in Türkiye’s rising power profile and deepening international geopolitical portfolio. Especially since 2010, there has been a significant change and transformation in Türkiye’s intelligence doctrine and practices. With the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the comprehensive transformation in Türkiye’s security and strategic environment and the newly emerging threat environment necessitated Türkiye to undergo a holistic strategic transformation. In particular, the challenges posed by the Syrian civil war made it imperative for Türkiye to develop state capabilities in critical areas. The proliferation and diversification of asymmetric threats, the rise of terrorism as one of the primary threats to Türkiye’s security, and the transformation of the region into a center of intelligence wars prompted Türkiye to adopt a new military and intelligence policy. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s revolutionary steps in foreign and security policies and the defense industry were taken in the field of intelligence, and Türkiye identified its strategic priorities and developed its intelligence capabilities and capacities accordingly.

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The revolution in Turkish intelligence
Biden's election dilemma navigating the Israel question

Biden's election dilemma: navigating the Israel question

President Biden's message during his visit to a church in the state of South Carolina and the reactions of some protesters seemed like a summary of the dilemma he will face in preparing for the presidential elections. In 2015, a perpetrator advocating white supremacy killed 9 black citizens who came to the church for worship, a message that was discussed in the public eye as a result of Trump's message on the eve of the 2016 presidential elections. By starting his 2024 campaign with a visit to this church, Biden tried to show that black votes would be critical. By making a reference to Trump's expressions about immigrants 'poisoning' the country's blood, he conveyed the message that the real 'poison' is the idea of white supremacy. The messages given to the political electorate in South Carolina, a critical state that brought Biden to candidacy in 2016, stand out as an effort to reach out to black voters, which will play a critical role in the upcoming election.

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After World War II, an ideological war emerged between the fascist bloc and an alliance of liberals and communists. The United States spearheaded the establishment of the United Nations and its specialized agencies to create a new world order based on rules, norms and procedures.

The Middle East rang in the new year with assassinations and terror attacks. Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy leader of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Beirut last Tuesday. The following day, two bombings in Kirman, Iran (for which Daesh has claimed responsibility) killed 103 people. As those attacks shifted everyone’s attention to Israel, Iran and Hezbollah pledged to exact “revenge and a heavy price.”

The new year got off to an extremely busy start in Türkiye.

The Turkish national defense minister affirmed Wednesday the ongoing commitment of Türkiye to revitalize the Black Sea Grain deal.

Türkiye expects concrete steps on F-16 sale: Defense Minister

The Turkish national defense minister said Wednesday that Türkiye was monitoring the process of requesting the purchase of F-16 fighter jets from the United States, noting they were expecting to see concrete steps regarding the process "as soon as possible." Addressing negotiations with the U.S., Yaşar Güler urged the correction of attitudes and approaches that directly affect Türkiye's national security.

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Türkiye expects concrete steps on F-16 sale Defense Minister
Terror attack in Iran deepens security crisis in Middle East

Terror attack in Iran deepens security crisis in Middle East

On Jan. 4, Tehran Times, an international newspaper of Iran, described Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the United States in Iraq, as the “architect” of the new regional geometry in the Middle East. On the same day, a terrorist attack occurred in Kerman, Iran, killing more than 100 civilians.

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The al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7 created a significant rupture in both the Palestine-Israel issue and the Middle East region. Israel, which was in a very difficult situation in the face of Hamas’ resistance, chose to take out its anger on innocent people. To date, more than 20,000 innocent people, most of whom are children and women, have been martyred by the Israeli occupation forces. Supported by the majority of the Western states, especially the United States, Israel did not refrain from committing war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Gaza. Israel unabashedly violated the basic principles and norms of international law and the decisions of international organizations on the subject.

This paper argues that the al-Aqsa Flood operation launched by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades –the military wing of Hamas– on the morning of October 7 has led to a psychological and epistemological rupture in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Middle East politics as the operation marked a paradigm shift in the philosophy of the resistance. The infiltration of al-Qassam into the occupied territories by land, sea, and air was a clear sign of a change in the strategy of the resistance to continue the active struggle against the aggressive expansionism and aggression of the Zionist Israeli government. In this context, the study tries to frame Operation al-Aqsa Flood and analyze the dimensions of the rupture. Besides this, it will also outline the possible impact of the operation on global and regional politics, considering that the ongoing process will change the political balance in the Middle East.

This article delves into the legal discussions surrounding the crisis unleashed by the military operation launched on October 7, 2023, in Southern Israel by Palestinian forces of the resistance based in Gaza. Israel considered this a “terrorist attack,” asserted the right of self-defense, declared war on Gazans, and started the continuous and indiscriminate bombardment of Gaza. As a result, Gaza has become the new Dresden, in which thousands have been killed and tens of thousands injured. This article is an attempt to answer the following questions to illuminate the legal issues surrounding the current crisis and the broader context of Israel’s legal status as a state and its territorial claims: Was the Palestinian offensive in Southern Israel an instance of terrorism and/or an act of aggression? Which side of the conflict can rightfully claim the right of self-defense? Did Israel commit genocide in Gaza? Do Israel’s statehood and territorial claims rest on firm legal grounds? Is it legally sensible to argue that Israel is a threat to international peace and security?

The latest edition of Insight Turkey has been released, featuring a special focus on the Turkic World. This issue includes four insightful commentaries and four in-depth research articles, delving into various aspects of the Turkic World. Additionally, it offers four articles on other topics, notably discussing the Palestinian issue in the context of the October 7 operation and examining Türkiye-Russia energy relations.

The year 2023 began relatively strong for the U.S. in terms of its claim to global leadership in foreign policy. However, due to a strategic blind spot in the context of the Gaza conflict, it ended on a disappointing note. In the upcoming year, it is not difficult to predict that the Biden administration will attempt to diminish this loss of reputation. However, President Biden's unwavering support for Israel poses a significant obstacle. While Washington acknowledges the unsustainability of this stance, overcoming it to influence Israel's "war cabinet" will require more than leaking discontent to the press. In 2024, Biden must shift his focus from providing ideological support to Israel and concentrate on repairing America's political interests and reputation. Failing to do so will hinder his ability to unite his party or establish superiority in the power struggle with Russia and China.

Important parameter for guarantor model is Israeli government and its expected transformation, which is highly probable in the short term after its clear failures

The year 2011, the beginning of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions, has been considered by most observers of the Middle East as a turning point in the history of the region. The process of mass demonstrations, insurgencies and revolutions is generally known as the Arab Spring. It is claimed that the region has entered into a new epoch with this sweeping wave of changes.

The Biden administration's performance succumbed to ideological perspectives and strategic blindness.

Describing 2023 as a relatively quiet year for Turkish foreign policy would exclude the events of Oct. 7 and their aftermath. The trend of normalization, ongoing since the general elections in May, played a pivotal role in determining the overarching course of foreign policy. Despite unresolved issues, emphasis was placed on minimizing potential conflicts and prioritizing common interests. In the post-election period, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted for a regional foreign policy centered on Gulf country relations, making the economy a primary focus. To mitigate security risks from Syria, ministerial-level talks with the Assad regime were initiated. Noteworthy strides were made in normalizing relations with Israel and Egypt. Erdoğan’s robust support for Azerbaijan in liberating Karabakh bolstered Türkiye’s status as a geopolitical player in 2023.

The current Western governments have been giving full and unconditional support to Israel’s oppressive policies and atrocities. Pro-Israeli Western governments do not take into account their citizens’ views on the latest developments in Palestine. They prefer to support the Zionists but not their people. However, they know that their pro-Israeli positions damage their relations with other countries.

During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The events of 2023 have significantly diversified potential geopolitical and strategic scenarios for 2024.

Biden, in a ceremony where he criticized antisemitism this week, recounted the political pressures he faced for stating 35 years ago, 'Being Jewish is not necessary to be a Zionist. And I am a Zionist.' Biden has previously used expressions like 'If there was no Israel, we would have to invent it' and linked the security of Jews to the existence of Israel. It can be politically surprising that Biden, in his second term, insists on his Israel policy, risking American national interests. The only explanation for Biden's insistence might be an irrational and ideological perspective based on assumptions that many Jews might not accept.