What does CHP want to do?
As Türkiye’s political parties and leaders analyze the municipal election results, it remains unclear what Turkish politics will look like in this new period. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid due respect to the people’s choice on election night, making an inclusive statement that encouraged the opposition to speak responsibly.
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Local elections and future of Turkish politics
It is still unclear to what extent the local elections to be held on Sunday will affect Turkish politics. In terms of macro-political dynamics, the main patterns of politics in Türkiye are not expected to change. After the local elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will have more than four years ahead of him.
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Ahead of this weekend’s municipal elections, the People’s Alliance, and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) alike, make the case that there are actually two candidates in each district. The argument that voters should opt for their second favorite if their own party cannot win so that their least favorite candidate does not end up in office is intended to create a “second round” effect.
The municipal election campaign of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has been riddled with crises, and I am not talking about their various statements that have become the subject of controversy. For example, this is not about the CHP chairperson’s remarks about Turkish citizens who paid for their exemption from military service or Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu’s comments on housewives.
Türkiye’s municipal election remains approximately one month away, but the political parties have been running low-intensity campaigns. In other words, we have not yet witnessed strongly worded statements, serious alienation or significant polarization – an absence of the "survival" discourse.
Local elections are scheduled to be held in Türkiye on March 31. Although local elections may not significantly shape the immediate future of the country, they hold the potential to trigger numerous political dynamics.
CHP fails to grasp shifting opposition dynamics
With the 2024 municipal elections just 53 days away, the People’s Alliance has momentum, while the opposition parties have failed to form alliances. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), built electoral alliances in 2019 and 2023. This time around, it has no choice but to collaborate with the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), which succeeded the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), in some provinces. It is no secret that the potential partnership between the CHP and YSP in Istanbul would be facilitated by Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu – which would open him up to criticism from the People’s Alliance, as well as the Good Party (IP). Meanwhile, Başak Demirtaş’s seeming interest in running for mayor suggests that the CHP might have to campaign alone in Istanbul. She is, of course, the wife of jailed ex-HDP Chairperson Selahattin Demirtaş. Such a development would make “grassroots as opposed to intraparty cooperation” the only option on the table, but the main opposition party has been handling the situation in a very fragmented and counterproductive manner.
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Costs of AK Party and IP's intensifying rhetoric about CHP
The campaign rhetoric heats up with the municipal elections less than 70 days away. The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Good Party's (IP) narratives promise to challenge the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
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Parliament returned from recess on Tuesday to debate the PKK’s terror attacks. The PKK carried out suicide attacks against the Turkish forces in northern Iraq on Dec. 22 and Jan. 12, claiming 21 lives. That development fueled a multifaceted debate in Türkiye.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) mayoral candidates in 26 provinces, including Istanbul, on Sunday.
The new year got off to an extremely busy start in Türkiye.
Twelve Turkish soldiers lost their lives earlier this week in an attack by the terrorist organization PKK in northern Iraq. I offer my condolences to their families and the nation.
Ahead of the March 2024 municipal elections, the ongoing Good Party (IP) crisis continues to capture everyone’s attention. That party’s chairwoman, Meral Akşener, recently accused the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, of "cowardice." Several parliamentarians are rumored to be on the brink of leaving the IP over those comments.
With the 2024 municipal elections just three months away, the crisis within Türkiye’s political opposition worsens amid accusations of conspiracy. The Good Party’s (IP) decision to contest the election “freely” and “individually” encouraged some members of the municipal councils in Ankara and Istanbul (who were part of the "ecosystem" that the two mayors created) and some parliamentarians to resign.
The IP leadership’s refusal to endorse the main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) mayoral candidates in Istanbul and Ankara caused uproar among local chapters and council members, whom those municipalities support financially, as well as other proponents of electoral alliances. In other words, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, widely seen as mayors of the 2019 alliance, used their influence over the IP – arguably the price that IP Chair Meral Akşener and her movement are expected to pay.
Recently, commentators have been arguing whether CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel would make an offer to right-wing fringe parties. Recalling that pro-change voices within the main opposition party had been critical of the “table for six” and DEVA, Babacan argued it would be a “contradiction” for Özel to enter into talks with them. That was hardly surprising considering that the former CHP chairperson, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, faced criticism over his decision to offer parliamentary seats to DEVA, the Felicity Party (SP), the Future Party (GP) and the Democratic Party (DP). Indeed, the pro-CHP media treated the right-wing fringe parties like parasites.
Over the past few months, the Republican People's Party (CHP) has been working toward convincing the Good Party (IP) to join forces ahead of next year's municipal elections. Local leaders who happen to be part of the municipal ecosystem in Istanbul and Ankara support some type of collaboration.
The municipal election campaign in Türkiye kicked off with a debate on alliances and cooperation. It seems that the People’s Alliance will campaign for the March 31, 2024 elections similarly to the 2019 and 2023 elections following a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairperson Devlet Bahçeli.
The Good Party (IP) is trying to deal with resignations, an inquiry into the financial affairs of its chairperson’s family members, and allegations of missing funds and harassment.
The main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) recently elected chairperson, Özgür Özel, is still looking for ways to back up his pledge to "change" with concrete steps. Despite having defeated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost the 2023 presidential election, Özel needs to manage intraparty power struggles. Provided that some pro-CHP commentators refer to Özel as party chair and to Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu as the movement’s leader, it is safe to say that this dual structure has already become an actual fact within the main opposition party. Whether Özel is a mere placeholder or that party’s co-chairperson, this new situation shall take a toll on the CHP.
Türkiye’s main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, lost the race for Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson to Özgür Özel over the weekend.
