Dynamics in Türkiye as local election looms
Local elections are scheduled to be held in Türkiye on March 31. Although local elections may not significantly shape the immediate future of the country, they hold the potential to trigger numerous political dynamics.
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CHP fails to grasp shifting opposition dynamics
With the 2024 municipal elections just 53 days away, the People’s Alliance has momentum, while the opposition parties have failed to form alliances. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), built electoral alliances in 2019 and 2023. This time around, it has no choice but to collaborate with the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), which succeeded the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), in some provinces. It is no secret that the potential partnership between the CHP and YSP in Istanbul would be facilitated by Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu – which would open him up to criticism from the People’s Alliance, as well as the Good Party (IP). Meanwhile, Başak Demirtaş’s seeming interest in running for mayor suggests that the CHP might have to campaign alone in Istanbul. She is, of course, the wife of jailed ex-HDP Chairperson Selahattin Demirtaş. Such a development would make “grassroots as opposed to intraparty cooperation” the only option on the table, but the main opposition party has been handling the situation in a very fragmented and counterproductive manner.
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The campaign rhetoric heats up with the municipal elections less than 70 days away. The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Good Party's (IP) narratives promise to challenge the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
Parliament returned from recess on Tuesday to debate the PKK’s terror attacks. The PKK carried out suicide attacks against the Turkish forces in northern Iraq on Dec. 22 and Jan. 12, claiming 21 lives. That development fueled a multifaceted debate in Türkiye.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) mayoral candidates in 26 provinces, including Istanbul, on Sunday.
The new year got off to an extremely busy start in Türkiye.
CHP, counterterrorism and two-pronged discourse
Twelve Turkish soldiers lost their lives earlier this week in an attack by the terrorist organization PKK in northern Iraq. I offer my condolences to their families and the nation.
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Why CHP is compelled to work with YSP
Ahead of the March 2024 municipal elections, the ongoing Good Party (IP) crisis continues to capture everyone’s attention. That party’s chairwoman, Meral Akşener, recently accused the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, of "cowardice." Several parliamentarians are rumored to be on the brink of leaving the IP over those comments.
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With the 2024 municipal elections just three months away, the crisis within Türkiye’s political opposition worsens amid accusations of conspiracy. The Good Party’s (IP) decision to contest the election “freely” and “individually” encouraged some members of the municipal councils in Ankara and Istanbul (who were part of the "ecosystem" that the two mayors created) and some parliamentarians to resign.
The IP leadership’s refusal to endorse the main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) mayoral candidates in Istanbul and Ankara caused uproar among local chapters and council members, whom those municipalities support financially, as well as other proponents of electoral alliances. In other words, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, widely seen as mayors of the 2019 alliance, used their influence over the IP – arguably the price that IP Chair Meral Akşener and her movement are expected to pay.
Recently, commentators have been arguing whether CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel would make an offer to right-wing fringe parties. Recalling that pro-change voices within the main opposition party had been critical of the “table for six” and DEVA, Babacan argued it would be a “contradiction” for Özel to enter into talks with them. That was hardly surprising considering that the former CHP chairperson, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, faced criticism over his decision to offer parliamentary seats to DEVA, the Felicity Party (SP), the Future Party (GP) and the Democratic Party (DP). Indeed, the pro-CHP media treated the right-wing fringe parties like parasites.
Over the past few months, the Republican People's Party (CHP) has been working toward convincing the Good Party (IP) to join forces ahead of next year's municipal elections. Local leaders who happen to be part of the municipal ecosystem in Istanbul and Ankara support some type of collaboration.
The municipal election campaign in Türkiye kicked off with a debate on alliances and cooperation. It seems that the People’s Alliance will campaign for the March 31, 2024 elections similarly to the 2019 and 2023 elections following a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairperson Devlet Bahçeli.
The Good Party (IP) is trying to deal with resignations, an inquiry into the financial affairs of its chairperson’s family members, and allegations of missing funds and harassment.
The main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) recently elected chairperson, Özgür Özel, is still looking for ways to back up his pledge to "change" with concrete steps. Despite having defeated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost the 2023 presidential election, Özel needs to manage intraparty power struggles. Provided that some pro-CHP commentators refer to Özel as party chair and to Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu as the movement’s leader, it is safe to say that this dual structure has already become an actual fact within the main opposition party. Whether Özel is a mere placeholder or that party’s co-chairperson, this new situation shall take a toll on the CHP.
Türkiye’s main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, lost the race for Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson to Özgür Özel over the weekend.
The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, rejected President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s call on all political parties to draft a new constitution – as expected. Besides questioning the current administration’s legitimacy, on which he blames his latest election defeat, the CHP chairperson urged his former allies not to negotiate with the ruling People’s Alliance: “The six opposition leaders shared their views on the constitution with the public already. We have signed that document and unveiled it. As journalists, you are welcome to ask the other leaders why they choose to invalidate their signatures.”
The Good Party (IP) Chairperson Meral Akşener continues to confront the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the “table for six.” Recalling that she “drank the hemlock” for Kılıçdaroğlu’s victory, she recently said that “there is no such thing as the Nation Alliance anymore” and that “the IP and CHP are rivals.”
The Good Party (IP) took another step toward contesting next year’s municipal elections without joining any alliance as Kürşad Zorlu, the movement’s spokesperson, announced their decision to field mayoral candidates in all 81 provinces. As such, IP Chairperson Meral Akşener shut the door on a potential alliance with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) – at least for now.
Turkey's opposition bloc has yet to come to an agreement on a joint road map for the 2023 elections, and their chances to construct one seem to be quite low
The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) made headlines again, as three parliamentarians resigned and Muharrem Ince, the CHP’s presidential candidate in the 2018 election, is preparing to launch his own movement. CHP Deputy Özgür Özel, the minority whip, blamed these developments on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but the problem is more complex and deeply rooted. CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s policy of stripping his party of ideology and identity, in an attempt to unite the opposition, appears to have hit a dead end.
