A political transition in Libya?

Putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s western front in Libya collapsed last week as the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) captured the strategically important al-Watiya air base to the southwest of Tripoli. The liberation of Tarhunah, a town some 65 kilometers (40 miles) to the capital’s southeast, will completely break the siege of Tripoli.

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A political transition in Libya
Prospects for normalization appear grim in Libya

Prospects for normalization appear grim in Libya

In the last couple of weeks, significant developments have been happening in the Libyan civil war. The Government of National Accord (GNA) and militia forces loyal to the GNA made remarkable military progress in their offensive in the western part of the nation's capital, Tripoli. Armed drones provided by Turkey conducted effective attacks against Haftar forces. Those drone attacks played critical roles in the GNA's military advances in those areas of the country. The GNA also increased its attacks to take back the Watiya Air Base from Haftar's militia.

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Neo-isolationism is among the expectations for U.S. rhetoric in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic and this can melt its frozen ties with Turkey

Turkey faces growing pressure to retreat from three locations: Idlib, where Turkish forces are trying to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe; Libya, with which the Turks concluded a defense pact; and the Eastern Mediterranean, where Turkey is defending its rights under international law.

Turkey is fighting on three fronts to manage the Idlib crisis: a military operation, diplomacy and international public opinion.

Long-standing tension between Turkey and the Bashar Assad regime just turned into a hot conflict. At this rate, everything else will take a backseat to military operations. The critical question is whether Turkey has moved to the "second" stage in Idlib – holding territory, reinforcing observation posts and exercising control around them, and enforcing a safe zone, 30-40 kilometers deep, for Syrian refugees and displaced persons.

Germany knows road to protecting EU interests relies on Turkey

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, on a diplomatic offensive since the Berlin conference, visited Istanbul on Friday. The wide range of topics on her agenda included bilateral trade, the European Union, the situation in Idlib, the proposed safe zone, the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya and refugees, all of which stressed the importance of strengthening German-Turkish cooperation.

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Germany knows road to protecting EU interests relies on Turkey
Turkey's three key steps in the Eastern Mediterranean

Turkey's three key steps in the Eastern Mediterranean

Turkey took three crucial steps in late 2019 to tilt the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Those military and diplomatic measures, which the country took in the Mediterranean theater to strengthen its hand at the negotiating table, indicate that the Libya question will fare as prominently in Turkey's agenda as the Syria file.

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With the decision to deploy troops, Turkey affirmed its plans to remain active in the region and its determination to stand its ground

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is going through a major structural transformation in the last decade. This transformation is closely related to the transformation of power balance in the global scene.

The fall of Tripoli could undermine European energy security and unleash a new refugee wave on already overwhelmed countries

NATO, a 70-year-old military alliance, faces new strategic questions. The challenges that the organization encounters are diverse. Russian cyber-meddling in Western democracies, China's move to buy European infrastructure, Washington's reckless effort to undermine the liberal order, the rise of populism in Europe, terrorism and the refugee crisis are among them. At the same time, there is the question of "what kind of ally" Turkey is.

There is an emerging trend of popular protests all over the world. Citizens who are disenchanted by the conventional political system and procedures hit the streets to express their political and economic demands, or at least express their frustrations more vociferously. Especially the younger generations, who are less interested in regular electoral politics, have shown political consciousness in such a distinctive context.

Turkish-American relations are experiencing the heavy burden of Washington's alliance with the People's Protection Units (YPG), as the YPG is the Syrian branch of the PKK terrorist group, which Turkey has been struggling against for the last four decades. This vision will not change any time soon despite Washington's denial of the PKK-YPG connection. There are many other significant obstacles to the normalization of Turkish-American relations but Washington's flirt with the YPG is the most controversial one.

President Donald Trump's administration in Washington explicitly supported this ambitious alliance, which portrayed itself as the new powerhouse to reshape the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and the Crown Prince of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, Muhammed bin Zayed (MBZ), were the leading figures and sponsors of this project.

The Saudi-UAE alliance's risky ventures, which designate Iran as an archrival and Turkey as an adversary, makes them vulnerable to demands from the U.S.-Israel axis and undermine their international credibility

Libya's civil war has devastated the country for the last five years and is escalating again with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar's recent march to western Libya.

Turkish-American relations are strained again ahead of the delivery of S-400 air defense systems from Russia. In their Moscow meeting at the beginning of the week, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the plan to deliver the first set of S-400 air defense systems to Turkey in early July.

With the U.S. warning of its withdrawal from the Middle East, the new balance of power in the world has begun to be established. The rapprochement between authoritarian Arab regimes and Europe alongside Saudi Arabia's search for convergence with Asian powers are just the consequences of it

The Europeans are following in America's footsteps, revealing that they only care about their own interests. Their support for Egypt proves that

If the aggressive foreign policy of the Riyadh administration continues, Saudi Arabia will become more isolated than ever, as the cases of Qatar and Morocco clearly indicate