Due to the lack of global leadership and the increase of uncertainties and insecurity in the wake of the collapse of the bipolar world and the Soviet Union, many small and middle states began to restructure their foreign policy orientation. The intensification of global rivalry, the increase of unilateral intervention and the return of power politics have led small and middle states to diversify their foreign relations and form regional political and economic platforms to overcome global threats and challenges.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned the question of Sweden’s NATO membership into an opportunity to start a new chapter in Türkiye’s relations with the West. Having hosted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in Istanbul ahead of the Vilnius summit and stating that Ukraine deserved to join the alliance, Erdoğan brought up the need to remove obstacles before his country’s European Union membership.

It cannot be said that the efforts of Turkish foreign policy to open up space for itself through pragmatic steps in line with regional and global balances are adequately understood. Analyzes that depict Türkiye as "breaking away" from the Western alliance are based on the misconception that Türkiye cannot rationally determine its national interests and act accordingly. When every relationship President Erdogan develops beyond the Transatlantic alliance is presented as either an alternative to the West or a distancing from the West, unfounded prejudices about Türkiye's foreign policy emerge. As analyses of Türkiye are reduced to variations of the perception of a country caught between the West and the East, constantly experiencing ebb and flow, problematic perspectives on Turkish foreign policy become widespread. Unless it is based on the assumption that Türkiye has legitimate national interests and priorities, these analyses lose their ability to provide a profound explanation.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan started a new debate ahead of this week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Commenting on Sweden’s bid to join the Alliance, he argued that the relevant countries should “clear Türkiye’s path to European Union (EU) membership.” That statement aligned perfectly well with the readout of Erdoğan’s most recent phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden.

Türkiye gained the world’s attention yet again – this time, due to its diplomatic activism. Ten days before the grain deal’s expiry, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Istanbul. At the same time, diplomats and journalists continue to wonder whether Türkiye will approve Sweden’s NATO membership application ahead of the Vilnius Summit on July 11-12, 2023. Furthermore, Erdoğan is scheduled to visit the Gulf states on July 17-19 and host Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on July 27.

Sweden made headlines in Türkiye again this week by permitting yet another Quran burning under police protection on the first day of Qurban Bayram, also known as Eid al-Adha. That heinous act took place near a mosque in Stockholm, as had another burning in January, and had absolutely nothing to do with freedom of expression. Quite the contrary, it was a hate crime targeting Muslims and an obvious act of provocation.

Last weekend's historic events in Russia have sparked discussions on the role and preferences of the United States and its allies. The main motivation of Prigozhin, one of Putin's closest associates, was to preserve the power and autonomy of Wagner. However, there have been frequent speculations that he may have been "encouraged" by the West. Putin accuses Prigozhin of betraying him, while the Kremlin suggests the involvement of "external forces." It is worth noting that these comments and insinuations are politically driven and difficult to substantiate. However, an important question arises regarding whether American policy seeks Putin's removal from power. Given the strained relationship with the West due to the Ukraine occupation and the economic costs faced by Moscow, it can be argued that they may prefer a weakened Russia at the negotiating table rather than pushing it into chaos.

As we witnessed one of the most significant elections on the centennial of the Turkish Republic’s founding, Insight Turkey proudly presents a special issue that meticulously evaluates the elections and examines how Türkiye’s foreign policy will be shaped in their aftermath and we hope and believe that the insightful and stimulating debates raised on the issue will be helpful to our readers.

On June 23, 2023, the world experienced a great surprise when the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, revolted against the Russian government. Seemingly, the revolt arose due to increasing tension between the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Defense Ministry, especially Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

The world system has undergone a large-scale transition for the last two decades. The ultimate victory of the United States declared after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 lasted only for a decade. In spite of giving an effective answer to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. has been unable to maximize its national interests at the global scale and provide international peace and stability.

Türkiye will preserve its “strategic autonomy” and redouble its efforts to promote normalization and stronger relations based on “mutual interests.”

The Ukrainian forces are launching a counteroffensive, aiming to achieve a decisive result and bring an end to the Russian occupation. However, due to their lack of air superiority, they risk suffering significant losses in this attack. The outcome of this offensive will determine whether discussions about the end of the war can begin or if the conflict will prolong for years to come.

Turkish foreign policy is faced with the task of preserving the gains it has made in various critical issues, from Libya to Azerbaijan, Ukraine to the Eastern Mediterranean, while improving economic relations with Europe, increasing effectiveness within NATO, and managing the impacts of global power shifts.

The participation of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the G-7 summit in Hiroshima holds significant symbolic importance. The choice of Hiroshima sends a message of a nuclear-free world, while Zelenskyy's surprise attendance draws attention to the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. In addition to this emphasis, the explicit support of G-7 countries for Zelenskyy and President Biden's statement on F-16s also stand out as political developments with a deterrent effect on Russia. By addressing the Taiwan issue, a clear political message was conveyed, making this G-7 meeting the most politically significant so far.

We experienced another historic night on May 14. The number of votes President Erdoğan received, surpassing 27 million, represents the highest vote count ever recorded. Despite the theories that 5 million new voters would be a handicap for him, the sense of "enough is enough" among the electorate would help secure victory for the opposition, and the economic problems would guarantee a change in power, we saw that these claims did not materialize in the results. The problems among the opposition, their inability to offer a clear message despite the formulation of a joint program, and the difficulties faced by candidate Kılıçdaroğlu in persuading large masses determined the fate of the election. Thanks to the strong psychological advantage brought by the first round, Erdogan will secure a greater proportional advantage and win in the second round.

Considering the devastating effects of new-generation weapons, global powers cannot launch direct wars against each other. Therefore, they prefer to engage in indirect battles, as the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, did during the Cold War. Their proxies fight each other; they control the tide of the war from behind closed doors by procuring military equipment and by providing economic and financial assistance to wage war.

French President Emmanuel Macron paid an important visit to China and met Chinese President Xi Jinping last week in the shadow of the fierce protests in the streets against the government and its controversial pension reform.