Quo Vadis?: Regional Perspectives on the Syrian Crisis

Moderator: Taha Özhan, President of SETA Foundation    Panelists: Besma Kodmani, Syrian National Council Veniamin Popov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations Kayhan Barzegar, Center for Strategic Research, Iran Basheer Nafi, Al Jazeera Center for Studies  Date/Time: April 3rd, 2012, TUESDAY 10:00-12:00  Venue: SETA Ankara room, ANKARA

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Quo Vadis Regional Perspectives on the Syrian Crisis
The Syrian Uprising on its First Anniversary

The Syrian Uprising on its First Anniversary

What the Syrian regime fails to see is that this space carved between the political occupations of 2012 and geopolitical balances is about to expire.

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America will only then - if indeed it wants - be free from the three answers or the single al-Assad answer outlined above!

As so many outside powers have clashing geopolitical, security, and economic interests, what does the road ahead look like for Syria?

When the AK Party came to power in 2002, the people were finally able to say “stop” to the gang that took the state hostage during the 1990s.

Syria, which is the most wounding issue we face today, has turned into yet another test for the global platforms.

Assad junk bond and Baathist market

The only thing that will happen if the Assad regime in Syria is not overthrown is the continued political junk bond problem whose existence is extended slightly while its default risk is increased.

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Assad junk bond and Baathist market
Egypt Economic and Political Devaluation

Egypt: Economic and Political Devaluation

Tahrir nowadays is not only a space for those who are celebrating the anniversary of the revolution but also a convenient place to hide for those who want to escape responsibility.

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The worry is not about the possibility of a war breaking out; it is about the hope of building a new regional order in the near future fading away.

The “New Egypt” will be shaped to a great extent by a “negotiation” process between the army and the political actors in opposition. It is likely that Egypt’s transition to democracy will be a long and difficult process.

The world and Turkey, especially within the last five years, have experienced head-spinning events. In fact, the turbulent environment of the last five years does not indicate anything but an even more difficult year ahead.

The wave of uprisings that spread through North Africa, and the Middle East have brought our region to an interesting junction in terms of the proxy wars.

SETA Panel brought two distinguished speakers together to discuss Turkish-Tunisian relations, as well as the recent developments in the Middle East and the North Africa: Foreign Affairs Minister of Tunisia Rafik Abdessalem and Foreign Minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoğlu.

The Kurdish political movement and PKK maintain discourses and activities similar to the ones they exhibited in old Turkey.

Egypt has to confront military tutelage, economic crisis, regional order and international dynamics all while learning the particulars of democratic political competition.

The new paradigm in relations seems to be working so far in critical issue areas, including Syria and NATO’s missile shield.

In the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, the strategy that regional forces adopt will determine the future of the occupation in Iraq.

If we are to talk about a model, it must be the Camp David model which was imposed in our region for decades. It is a model that captured people’s will and gave it to dictators by force.

Following the leak of the Palmer Report to the New York Times, Turkey declared that it considered the report null and reduced its diplomatic relations with Israel to the second Secretary level.

SETA’s public seminar “Seeking Justice And Accountability: Rights Abuses And The Arab Uprisings” brought together Joe Stork and Jan Egeland of Human Rights Watch to discuss human rights in foreign policy making, and efforts to advocate for human rights and influence regimes like that in Syria which has turned a deaf ear to calls to end the brutal clampdown on demonstrators.

Turkey’s long-standing Kurdish issue was also mentioned in the commentaries as a major issue that awaited a comprehensive solution.