What the 3rd US intervention means for Gulf's future

After U.S. President Donald Trump had the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain sign the Abraham Accords on Sept. 15 at the White House, people have been wondering which Arab country will be next.

More
What the 3rd US intervention means for Gulf's future
The search for the Arab world

The search for the Arab world

In the wake of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions, the Arab world lost touch with its role as the main carriers of Arab nationalism. In reality, the process of the dissolution of the Arab world started on 9/11 when some citizens of Saudi Arabia executed the most devastating terrorist attacks in the history of the United States. Shortly after Sept. 11, the U.S. invaded Iraq, claiming that the Saddam Hussein regime was about to produce nuclear weapons.

More

Recent tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have multiple drivers including the race for exploitation of energy resources, long-standing maritime disputes, and the broader geopolitical competition between regional powers. While Turkey’s recent assertiveness of her rights in the Eastern Mediterranean drew renewed attention to the region, this round of confrontation has been long in the making.

French President Emmanuel Macron has openly had Turkey in his crosshairs for quite some time.

For the last several weeks, French President Emmanuel Macron has been targeting Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in his statements about regional developments in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. Although it is not uncommon for him to make such undiplomatic positions when it comes to foreign policy, his recent remarks about Turkey demonstrate that his tone is becoming more aggressive than it used to be.

Emmanuel Macron was welcomed by political leaders in Europe and the United States when he defeated his right-wing populist rival Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential race in 2017.

What does France want from Turkey?

For the last decade, the main concern of Turkish foreign policy has been the crises in the Middle East and North Africa, which include threats emanating from different terrorist groups and state failures as a result of Arab insurgencies. Ankara, however, has been spending its energy on its relations with Western countries, especially France and the United States, rather than on these crises. Nowadays, many observers both from inside and outside the nation have been trying to answer the question, “What does the West want from Turkey?” In this piece, I will try to trace the roots of Paris' approach toward Ankara.

More
What does France want from Turkey
Macron's irrational actions and EU's indifference

Macron's irrational actions and EU's indifference

The French president seems to forget that people in the region already know that France is not a regional power and indeed, has colonial fantasies.

More

Turkey counters encirclement strategy by concluding maritime accord with Libya, unnerving inimical regional, global powers

'No one can question' deal, 'especially France' says Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay

After the formalization or normalization of bilateral relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel, many observers began to discuss the agreement's impact on Middle Eastern politics and the Arab World. It seems that the biggest impact will be on the future of the “political Arab world,” which collapsed in the wake of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions during the Arab Spring.

During a meeting with the editors of The New York Times seven months ago, former U.S. Vice President and current Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden labeled President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan an “autocrat” and criticized Turkey for its constructive relations with Moscow and policies over northeastern Syria.

On Friday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, along with former energy chief and current Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, announced that Turkey had discovered some 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas – the largest deposit found in the country's history.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean are escalating anew to dangerous levels. Turkey responded to a Greek-Egyptian maritime agreement, which undermined Germany’s mediation efforts, by dispatching the research vessel Oruç Reis, alongside frigates, to the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek military consequently went into high alert.

The analysis discusses the evolving dynamics of Turkey’s military involvement in Libya, laying out Turkey’s motivations for supporting the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, and examining how Turkey’s recent military achievements on the ground may leverage its hand diplomatically to secure a political settlement that protects its interests in Libya and in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) celebrated its 19th birthday earlier this week. Over the course of its history, the movement has single-handedly governed Turkey – an accomplishment that has eluded all others in the history of the country’s multi-party democracy.

The current tension in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece is a consequence of Greece’s unfair and maximalist claims that violate Turkey’s rights in the region. Any sober analyst would agree on the unfair nature of the plans that Athens tries to impose on Ankara. These aggressive claims are supported by actors like France, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) who all have their own problems with Turkey.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean seem incapable of de-escalating. Although the situation on the Sirte-Jufra line in Libya remains under control thanks to Turkey’s diplomatic talks with the U.S. and Russia, last week’s explosion in Lebanon and the Greco-Egyptian maritime deal fueled tensions anew. Athens and Cairo recently announced that they had concluded an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement, directly challenging Turkey’s November 2019 deal with Libya. As a matter of fact, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias did not hesitate to describe that agreement as “the opposite” of the Turkish-Libyan treaty.

Turkey’s most recent steps in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean raised questions in foreign capitals about that country’s international standing. As Americans grappled with President Donald Trump’s call to delay the 2020 elections, the European media went berzerk over the Hagia Sophia’s reclassification as a mosque. On the one hand, they called on European leaders to respond to “Sultan” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom they charged with neo-Ottomanist expansionism. At the same time, European reporters appreciate that Erdoğan has been filling the power vacuum that the United States left behind, empowering his country in the process. They also understand that the Turkish president, as an experienced leader, does what his European counterparts fail to do and takes his country to a new level of agency.

Turkey and Greece have been in conflict for the last several decades. However, mainly due to a series of anti-Turkish moves made by the Greek state and the transgressed explanations made by Greek officials, tensions between the two countries have risen dramatically in recent years. As a reaction to Turkey’s improvement of its defense industry and its effective interventions in regional crises, Greece has been trying to exploit every opportunity to produce anti-Turkish policies.

There is a significant responsibility for the European Union and NATO to facilitate finding a fair diplomatic solution to the recent efforts that try to contain and exclude Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.