As the Libyan putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar grows weaker, his sponsors begin to speak louder. Building on angry statements from Greece and France, Egypt raised the ante by taking a fresh step. That country’s usurper president, Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, declared an attack on Sirte and Jufra a "red line" for Cairo and threatened to "directly intervene" in Libya.
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Turkish-Egyptian cooperation in Libya can offer much more to Egypt's long-term interests than Cairo's current alliance with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh
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Tensions have once again peaked between Turkey and Greece over a number of traditional disputes involving the Aegean and Cyprus, as well as over recent disagreements regarding maritime jurisdiction in the Eastern Mediterranean. Athens has attempted to invalidate Turkey’s November 2019 agreement with Libya to limit Turkish control over area in the Eastern Mediterranean spanning to the Gulf of Antalya. Athens believes it can pursue an unjust and maximalist policy with support from France, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Greek Cypriots. Given the recent dispute over the Aegean continental shelf, the Eastern Mediterranean has emerged as the main platform for a renewed rivalry between Turkey and Greece.
As Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) attempts to liberate Sirte and Jufra, diplomatic talks are regaining momentum. The latest move came from Egypt, where President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi met putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar and Libyan politician Aguila Saleh before unveiling the Cairo Declaration. That document relates to a cease-fire, a road map for political reconciliation, the establishment of the Presidential Council and elections within 18 months. Although Russia and the U.S. endorsed the call for a cease-fire, the Cairo Declaration, which exclusively deals with eastern Libya and intends to keep Haftar in business, does not create common ground or reconcile other stakeholders, including Turkey. Hence Ankara’s description of the declaration as "stillborn."
Turkey and the Government of National Accord (GNA), the only legitimate administration and the main representative of the Libyan people, signed two memoranda of understanding on the delimitation of maritime jurisdictions and security and defense cooperation on Nov. 27, 2019. After the approval of these memoranda, the Turkish Parliament authorized the deployment of Turkish soldiers in Libya on Jan. 2.
On April 4, 2019, the putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar started his well-funded and well-supported campaign to take Libya's capital Tripoli and topple the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) run by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Haftar's forces were initially successful in taking over many cities in Western Libya and encircled Tripoli.
Despite the dominance of the coronavirus pandemic, the Libyan crisis is high on the agenda of international politics. The world has been watching the success of the Turkish-backed legitimate government against putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar.
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What are the driving factors behind the conflict in Libya? What is Turkey’s strategic objective in Libya? What are the future scenarios for Libya?
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Putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s western front in Libya collapsed last week as the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) captured the strategically important al-Watiya air base to the southwest of Tripoli. The liberation of Tarhunah, a town some 65 kilometers (40 miles) to the capital’s southeast, will completely break the siege of Tripoli.
Libya's government is supported by Turkey, the only country providing the nation with weapons to fight putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by many regional and global powers – such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Greece, Russia and France. Although European Union countries officially support the legitimate government of Fayez al-Sarraj, a number strongly support its illegitimate rival, Haftar, on the ground.
In the last couple of weeks, significant developments have been happening in the Libyan civil war. The Government of National Accord (GNA) and militia forces loyal to the GNA made remarkable military progress in their offensive in the western part of the nation's capital, Tripoli. Armed drones provided by Turkey conducted effective attacks against Haftar forces. Those drone attacks played critical roles in the GNA's military advances in those areas of the country. The GNA also increased its attacks to take back the Watiya Air Base from Haftar's militia.
Libyan warlord Gen. Khalifa Haftar is taking a new moves after suffering a series of military defeats in recent weeks. On Monday evening, he announced the formation of a new government, claiming to have a “popular mandate.” Haftar leads the so-called Libyan National Army (LNA), which on paper, serves the House of Representatives and the High Council of State in Tobruk, a port city on Libya’s Mediterranean coast.
That mankind will draw lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic is just wishful thinking. The virus outbreak cannot seem to end violence or the struggle for power. The situation in Libya supports this claim.
Last week an important international meeting was held in Berlin with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's diplomatic efforts. Turkey, Russia, the UAE and Egypt, as well as representatives from the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Congo, Algeria, United Nations and African Union, participated in the Berlin conference.
In the summer of 2019, I had an opportunity to visit the western cities of Libya. As a group of researchers, we were trying to understand the dynamics of the complicated civil war in Libya.
Libya's putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar left the negotiating table in Moscow last week, putting off the prospect of a cease-fire until this weekend's Berlin conference . The man trying to topple Libya's internationally recognized, legitimate government did so under pressure from the United Arab Emirates. He denied Russian President Vladimir Putin his diplomatic accomplishment, fueling disappointment and anger in the Kremlin.
Turkey is exerting a huge diplomatic effort to allow the fragile cease-fire in Libya to blossom into a lasting peace. Italian Prime Minister Conte visited the Turkish capital Monday, immediately following Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. At the same time, Turkey's foreign minister, defense minister and intelligence chief spent the day in Moscow to facilitate talks between Libya's various warring factions.
After President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's meeting with key leaders in the Libyan crisis, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, Turkey has come to the fore once again as a game changer in Middle Eastern politics. Turkey's diplomatic efforts produced a cease-fire at a time when Tripoli was about to fall into the hands of Gen. Khalifa Haftar. Turkey has mobilized many regional and global actors such as Algeria, Tunisia, Italy and Germany to take more initiative in the Libyan crisis.
With tensions between Iran and the United States de-escalating for now, there is talk about cease-fire agreements in Libya and Idlib.
Following Turkey's decision to throw its weight on regional developments and be a more influential actor in the Mediterranean, countries trying to exclude Ankara and its rights, have been uneasy
Turkish Parliament on Thursday authorized President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his administration's plans to deploy troops to Libya. The deployment bill passed with the support of the People's Alliance, with 325 votes in favor, despite opposition from the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and the Good Party (İP).