US foreign policy outlook in 2024

The year 2023 began relatively strong for the U.S. in terms of its claim to global leadership in foreign policy. However, due to a strategic blind spot in the context of the Gaza conflict, it ended on a disappointing note. In the upcoming year, it is not difficult to predict that the Biden administration will attempt to diminish this loss of reputation. However, President Biden's unwavering support for Israel poses a significant obstacle. While Washington acknowledges the unsustainability of this stance, overcoming it to influence Israel's "war cabinet" will require more than leaking discontent to the press. In 2024, Biden must shift his focus from providing ideological support to Israel and concentrate on repairing America's political interests and reputation. Failing to do so will hinder his ability to unite his party or establish superiority in the power struggle with Russia and China.

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US foreign policy outlook in 2024
Türkiye's guarantor proposal and the failure of Netanyahu

Türkiye's guarantor proposal and the failure of Netanyahu

Important parameter for guarantor model is Israeli government and its expected transformation, which is highly probable in the short term after its clear failures

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The year 2011, the beginning of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions, has been considered by most observers of the Middle East as a turning point in the history of the region. The process of mass demonstrations, insurgencies and revolutions is generally known as the Arab Spring. It is claimed that the region has entered into a new epoch with this sweeping wave of changes.

The Biden administration's performance succumbed to ideological perspectives and strategic blindness.

Describing 2023 as a relatively quiet year for Turkish foreign policy would exclude the events of Oct. 7 and their aftermath. The trend of normalization, ongoing since the general elections in May, played a pivotal role in determining the overarching course of foreign policy. Despite unresolved issues, emphasis was placed on minimizing potential conflicts and prioritizing common interests. In the post-election period, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted for a regional foreign policy centered on Gulf country relations, making the economy a primary focus. To mitigate security risks from Syria, ministerial-level talks with the Assad regime were initiated. Noteworthy strides were made in normalizing relations with Israel and Egypt. Erdoğan’s robust support for Azerbaijan in liberating Karabakh bolstered Türkiye’s status as a geopolitical player in 2023.

The current Western governments have been giving full and unconditional support to Israel’s oppressive policies and atrocities. Pro-Israeli Western governments do not take into account their citizens’ views on the latest developments in Palestine. They prefer to support the Zionists but not their people. However, they know that their pro-Israeli positions damage their relations with other countries.

Washington's efforts for 'damage control' in Israel

During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

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Washington's efforts for 'damage control' in Israel
2024 A challenging year lies ahead

2024: A challenging year lies ahead

The events of 2023 have significantly diversified potential geopolitical and strategic scenarios for 2024.

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Biden, in a ceremony where he criticized antisemitism this week, recounted the political pressures he faced for stating 35 years ago, 'Being Jewish is not necessary to be a Zionist. And I am a Zionist.' Biden has previously used expressions like 'If there was no Israel, we would have to invent it' and linked the security of Jews to the existence of Israel. It can be politically surprising that Biden, in his second term, insists on his Israel policy, risking American national interests. The only explanation for Biden's insistence might be an irrational and ideological perspective based on assumptions that many Jews might not accept.

While state universities in the American higher education system are obliged to adhere to constitutional provisions, private universities, like Harvard and MIT, aren't directly bound by the First Amendment, which safeguards freedom of speech. Private institutions can establish their rules and regulations, often attempting to extend freedom of expression in the name of academic freedom. However, they have, in the past, canceled programs and events deemed provocative or likely to incite disturbances, fostering a perception that such restrictions disproportionately favor conservative groups. Even on liberal campuses like Columbia, limitations and even bans on pro-Palestinian demonstrations have been observed.

The current situation amounts to a collapse within. Both Democrats and Republicans help create an atmosphere of repression as criticizing Israel and supporting the Palestinian resistance become subject to prohibition. Indeed, university presidents are being questioned and forced to resign over their supposed failure to prevent calls for genocide. The presidents of some of America’s leading universities – UPenn, MIT and Harvard – were recently reprimanded by members of Congress and were asked to step down.

Israel was established in the Palestinian territories and some parts of the Arab territories belong to Lebanon and Syria. Since then, it has been unilaterally expanding its territories against the neighboring countries after four major wars fought with Arab states. Although there is no state posing a significant threat to Israel, it has been pursuing aggressive policies toward all regional states, including the defenseless people of Palestine.

For Türkiye, Turkish-Greek relations have shifted from being solely a security concern to a potential axis of cooperation. While prioritizing its foreign policy within a broader geopolitical context, Ankara has chosen to address issues with Greece pragmatically. Nevertheless, changes in the regional strategic landscape, Türkiye’s rising influence, emerging regional challenges and its geopolitical presence in the Eastern Mediterranean following the maritime jurisdiction agreement with Libya have once again placed the relationship on a competitive and security-focused footing.

"There is no problem that cannot be solved between us," Erdogan told reporters as he met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens on Thursday, adding that he wanted to turn "the Aegean into a sea of peace and cooperation".

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid an official visit to Qatar where he held a bilateral meeting with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and attended the 9th meeting of the Türkiye-Qatar High-Level Strategic Committee and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.

On Dec. 1, the Wall Street Journal published a story by Dion Nissenbaum saying that Israel is planning to kill Hamas members around the world, mentioning those living in Lebanon, Türkiye, and Qatar. Turkish officials responded with a harsh statement through Anadolu that the Turkish Intelligence Agency (MIT) will never permit such undertakings, as various intelligence organizations tried to in the past. Pointing out the illegality of these alleged acts in Türkiye, officials said they had warned Mossad representatives in Türkiye. Turkish intelligence has made public several intelligence operations revealing Mossad cells and their activities in Türkiye. This shows that another wave of intelligence competition is coming in the days ahead including Mossad’s quest to attack Hamas in third countries and the MIT’s efforts to repel the Mossad threats.

Protest movements against Israel's operations in Gaza have sparked a reexamination of the limits of freedom of expression in the United States. Efforts by pro-Israel groups to equate criticism of Israel with anti-Semitism have become organized and systematic. The campaign, conducted through advertisements in media outlets and lobbying activities in Congress, aimed to convey the message that crowds taking to the streets to defend Palestinian civilians were contributing to the rise of anti-Semitism. However, censorship applied by some of the world's leading universities to groups supporting Palestine, the fear of being labeled as anti-Semitic, and threats to withdraw support from influential donors demonstrated how the boundaries of academic freedom could be defined. The experience of a prominent figure losing their job or being marginalized due to their pro-Palestinian stance also illustrates how organized political forces can effectively use the trauma of anti-Semitism as a weapon.

Israel has been bombing the Gaza Strip for almost two months, killing more than 15,000 Palestinians, most of whom are innocent children and women. In spite of calls and criticism from international organizations, hundreds of millions of people around the world and more than a hundred governments, Israel keeps committing atrocities.

The temporary cease-fire in Gaza was scheduled to expire Tuesday, but the parties agreed to extend it for two days. Still, witnessing the joy of Palestinians being rescued from Israeli prisons, rather than the killing of Palestinian women and children, offered some relief to people around the world. It is important, however, for the international community to keep objecting to Israel’s massacres. The prisoner exchange revealed that Israel was violating the human rights of Palestinians even before the Oct. 7 attack. Hence the need to keep talking about the two-state solution and mounting pressure on Israel to facilitate a permanent cease-fire is necessary. Specifically, the backlash from the West, including Spain and Belgium, needs to continue without interruption.

Elon Musk, the world's wealthiest businessperson, faced a new campaign against him when he liked an antisemitic post on his platform, X (Twitter). Media Matters, an organization that published a report on the prevalence of antisemitic content on the platform, triggered major American companies advertising on X to withdraw their ads. Musk, experiencing significant commercial losses, attempted to demonstrate his non-antisemitic stance by visiting Israel. However, associating this with proving one's non-antisemitic stance is problematic, considering the history of antisemitism predates Israel's history, and leaders like Prime Minister Netanyahu have a long history of trying to equate criticism of Israel's policies with antisemitism.

Even if Israel emerges from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with a limited military victory, it remains the loser of the conflict. Following its intense campaign against Gaza post-Oct. 7, Israel either failed or chose not to seize the greatest historical opportunity since its establishment. Today, it grapples with an ontological security crisis and profound regional and global status anxieties on a scale unseen since 1948.