China or Iran: Who is Trump's target?

Ignore The New York Times’ smear campaign against Turkey’s COVID-19 response. The United States tops the list of the world’s most unsuccessful countries in fighting the coronavirus. U.S. President Donald Trump, who previously dismissed the possibility of a second wave in the fall, was at odds with medical experts and walked back his comments during a news conference. If the virus were to come back, Trump said, his country would easily defeat it.

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China or Iran Who is Trump's target
Why is there a debate about WHO today

Why is there a debate about WHO today?

The coronavirus caught a great majority of people off guard with its speed of dissemination and its ratio of killing people around the world. Warnings of many experts and intelligence about the emergence of such nontraditional threats to international security were not taken seriously.

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Conventional wisdom dictates that the coronavirus will radically alter our lives. Experts predict that radical changes will occur in a range of areas, including the questioning of alliances, the strengthening of the state and expedited digitalization.

The novel coronavirus outbreak that began in December 2019 in the Chinese city of Wuhan has turned into a global threat. The World Health Organization (WHO) defined the threat as a pandemic and called on every nation to take necessary precautions. Though the pandemic has lost the momentum it had during initially in China, it keeps spreading across the globe. New cases and deaths are reported every day, especially in the U.S. and Europe. The situation spiraled out of control in Italy and Iran, while in Turkey, the first cases began to emerge. Turkey’s Health Minister Fahrettin Koca announced at a news conference on the night of March 17 that the number of cases was 98 and that one person had died.

Turkey’s Health Minister Fahrettin Koca has become the embodiment of the country’s fight against the coronavirus. He urged everyone last week to “declare their own state of emergency” – possibly suggesting that the Turkish government was not prepared to impose an official curfew yet.

The COVID-19 pandemic is, first and foremost, a health risk. But we also rate various countries’ response to the crisis – like a stock market. In doing so, the main criterion is who was adequately prepared and whose response proved sufficient.

The coronavirus effect

The coronavirus pandemic established, however, that we, as fellow humans, have a middle ground and certain shared responsibilities beyond self-interest and fear. No country can afford to isolate itself from the outside world. That path only leads to more poverty, conflict and bloodshed. What was simply a Chinese problem just weeks ago is now a truly global issue.

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The coronavirus effect
Russia grows stronger in East Med while US looks for

Russia grows stronger in East Med while US looks for comfort

International focus has been on the Middle East for decades and particularly on Iran, Syria, Egypt, Iraq and Libya over the past several years. However, whatever is written about the Middle East, Russia is always part of the equation.

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Turkey has been the main supporter of the Syrian opposition fighting the Bashar Assad regime. Ankara has also diligently protected innocent Syrian civilians living in the Idlib region. It has stood against the atrocities, the Assad regime attacks and the regime's main backers Russia and Iran. On one hand, Turkey has mobilized its deterrent military power in the region against the regime’s future attacks; on the other hand, Turkish officials and civil institutions initiated a campaign to provide food and shelter for civilians. Western countries have been reluctant to get involved in the humanitarian tragedy and security problem in the region.

After a six-hour meeting between leaders and technical committees, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart announced a cease-fire for Syria's Idlib. During the meeting at the Kremlin, the presidents gave short speeches. The whole world followed the process as the decisions could trigger an escalation in violence while intensifying the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Syria. Turkey and Russia both wanted to end the civil war but were unwilling to concede their positions. For both Turkey and Russia, bilateral relations were at stake as well.

The deal signed between Turkey and Russia eased the tension in Idlib by declaring a cease-fire once again. Yet, despite the positive intentions of both parties, the unreliable nature of the Syrian regime raises cautiousness while increasing the responsibility on the shoulders of the Turkish and Russian sides as guarantor states

It is distressing to witness the lack of European concern about the humanitarian disaster in Idlib and how Turkey has been abandoned in its fight for civilian safety

Turkey's sole wish in Idlib is to maintain domestic and regional stability. This is what all involved actors must be aware of first.

The deadline for Bashar Assad’s retreat from Idlib has passed. Turkey remains committed to the Sochi agreement..

It has been more than eight years since the Syrian regime began one of the most brutal assaults against its own citizens, using every violent instrument at its disposal. The international community in these eight years stood idly by while the number of casualties and displaced people increased every day. The international bodies who should have been monitoring the situation stopped counting the number of people who died as a result of these atrocious attacks after half a million.

Russia's eagerness to have a presence in the Mediterranean is an old, well-known and deep-rooted policy. Syria, the country that could offer Russia the best chance of reaching the Mediterranean, presented an incredible opportunity for the country to implement its policy of reaching warmer seas when Bashar Assad called for help from Moscow in 2015. Russia has already developed good relations with countries such as Iran and Syria to contain NATO countries and U.S. allies in this region.

The recent escalation of violence between Turkey and the Assad regime in violation of the Sochi deal marks a significantly tense moment that may risk a deterioration of relations between Ankara and Moscow. Turkey has given an ultimatum to the Assad regime to withdraw its troops outside of the zone encircled by Turkey's military observation points until the end of February. So far, the Assad regime has resisted the idea of withdrawal and continued to expand further into the territory. However, Turkey expects its Russian counterparts to either convince or force the Assad regime to comply with the conditions laid out as part of the Sochi deal that was signed in September 2018.

Turkey faces growing pressure to retreat from three locations: Idlib, where Turkish forces are trying to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe; Libya, with which the Turks concluded a defense pact; and the Eastern Mediterranean, where Turkey is defending its rights under international law.

Andrej Kreutz raised a poignant question in his book from 2007, "Russia in the Middle East: Friend or Foe," well before the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011. Even though Russia has been an important player in the Middle East since the Cold War era, its influence in the region has burgeoned since Syrian President Bashar Assad invited Moscow into the Syrian civil war in 2015.

The Syrian crisis is one of the best examples of this approach. The Bashar Assad regime has killed more than half a million innocent civilians by using prohibited weapons of mass destruction, including barrel bombs and chemical weapons..

Turkey's objectives amid the recent tensions in Idlib are clear and the scope of a possible military operation would be limited..