No region will be safe or secure unless the Syrian regime brutality is put to an end
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Even though the Syrian crisis continues to influence politics in the Middle East and the global balance, the European Union and major European powers, like the U.K., Germany and France, have continued to be the most reluctant and ineffective actors dealing with the crisis.
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There is an ongoing debate on Turkey's foreign policy decisions vis-a-vis the brewing crisis in Idlib. A rhetorical whirlpool has emerged around tensions with Russia, the significance of U.S. and EU statements, and Turkey's homework for Idlib.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described last week's regime attack in Idlib that claimed eight Turkish lives, as a "turning point" in the Syrian civil war. In addition to giving Bashar Assad time to retreat beyond the Turkish military observation posts by the end of the month, Erdoğan pledged that Turkey would push the regime forces away on its own if necessary.
The Syria civil war has been a test for the international community since it began almost nine years ago. The world has failed to respond and stop the bloodshed as the worst humanitarian tragedy since World War II unfolded under its watchful eyes.
The recent escalation of tensions around Idlib which have developed in response to coordinated attacks by the Syrian regime and Russia have put the pledges of the Astana and Sochi peace processes under a heavy strain..
The Syrian civil war has always had great potential to worsen any day. Since May 2019, the Bashar Assad regime has been pummeling the Syrian opposition's last holdout in the northwestern province of Idlib.
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Long-standing tension between Turkey and the Bashar Assad regime just turned into a hot conflict. At this rate, everything else will take a backseat to military operations. The critical question is whether Turkey has moved to the "second" stage in Idlib – holding territory, reinforcing observation posts and exercising control around them, and enforcing a safe zone, 30-40 kilometers deep, for Syrian refugees and displaced persons.
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Despite supporting opposite sides, Turkey and Russia have maintained dialogue for the last several years in the Syrian crisis. Together with Iran, another Bashar Assad supporter, they initiated the Astana Process. They have taken several significant steps to lessen the level of violence in the country. However, the Assad regime has insistently violated the cease-fire and continued its attacks against the opposition and civilian targets.
Hardly a day goes by without the Bashar Assad regime bombing hospitals, schools and bakeries in Idlib. Since the Jan. 12 cease-fire, more than 130 civilians have died in military operations that undermine both Astana and Sochi peace deals.
SETA Security Researcher Bilgehan Öztürk commented on the fall of Maarrat al-Numan to Syrian regime forces on TRT World.
Bilgehan Ozturk, Researcher at the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, on Syrian regime forces entering the rebel stronghold of Maaret al-Numan in Idlib.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, on a diplomatic offensive since the Berlin conference, visited Istanbul on Friday. The wide range of topics on her agenda included bilateral trade, the European Union, the situation in Idlib, the proposed safe zone, the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya and refugees, all of which stressed the importance of strengthening German-Turkish cooperation.
Public scrutiny of foreign policy is the backbone of democracy. Criticism, when firmly rooted in a rational analysis of the balance of power and national interest, can be constructive. However, when critiques resort to populism, however, they become ideological.
Turkey is exerting a huge diplomatic effort to allow the fragile cease-fire in Libya to blossom into a lasting peace. Italian Prime Minister Conte visited the Turkish capital Monday, immediately following Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. At the same time, Turkey's foreign minister, defense minister and intelligence chief spent the day in Moscow to facilitate talks between Libya's various warring factions.
With tensions between Iran and the United States de-escalating for now, there is talk about cease-fire agreements in Libya and Idlib.
The year 2019, which set the stage for extraordinary developments, has now ended. Living the fast life must be the distinguishing feature of modern times. Over the last year, the world talked about Brexit, NATO's future, U.S. President Donald Trump's impeachment, Israeli expansionism, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, protests in Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, France and Bolivia, trade wars, the S-400 deal, Turkey's local elections, the Syrian civil war, Operation Peace Spring, the assassination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Aramco attacks, Turkey's new indigenous car, Kanal Istanbul, U.S. sanctions, economic recovery, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya.
The NATO leaders' meeting went better than expected. In the alliance's final communique, released after talks concluded on Dec. 4, nations reiterated their commitment to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, stressed the importance of financial burden-sharing and underlined their intention to seek a common position regarding migration, as well as a united front on cyber and hybrid threats. Noting Russian aggression as posing a possible threat, NATO members called for dialogue with Moscow on intermediate-range missiles. Furthermore, as per Washington's request, the organization hinted it would be turning its attention to the Asia-Pacific region, in a nod to Beijing's expanding influence.
The death of the Daesh leader is a significant development in the fight against the terror network. The literature on terror organizations argues that for terror groups utilizing religious discourse and religious framing for collective mobilization, the decapitation, death or imprisonment of leaders is a highly effective intervention.
Turkey's war against Daesh played a crucial role in the defeat of the notorious group and the killing of its leader
The five days of intense diplomacy are here. The first step to determine northern Syria's fate was taken in Ankara, where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted U.S. Vice President Mike Pence. By Tuesday evening, a second step must be taken. In his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Erdoğan will complete the proposed safe zone's main framework.