Macron's East Med provocations out of control

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean are escalating anew to dangerous levels. Turkey responded to a Greek-Egyptian maritime agreement, which undermined Germany’s mediation efforts, by dispatching the research vessel Oruç Reis, alongside frigates, to the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek military consequently went into high alert.

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Macron's East Med provocations out of control
A Vortex Of Conflict the Evolving Dynamics of Turkey s

A Vortex Of Conflict the Evolving Dynamics of Turkey’s Involvement in Libya

The analysis discusses the evolving dynamics of Turkey’s military involvement in Libya, laying out Turkey’s motivations for supporting the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, and examining how Turkey’s recent military achievements on the ground may leverage its hand diplomatically to secure a political settlement that protects its interests in Libya and in the Eastern Mediterranean.

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The current tension in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece is a consequence of Greece’s unfair and maximalist claims that violate Turkey’s rights in the region. Any sober analyst would agree on the unfair nature of the plans that Athens tries to impose on Ankara. These aggressive claims are supported by actors like France, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) who all have their own problems with Turkey.

Lebanon is an artificial nation created by French imperialists in the 19th century. The politics of the country is constitutionally divided between different religions and sects. There are no official records of Lebanon's population at the time of its founding. It was originally designed to be a Maronite Christian country. Since then, however, it is evident that the number of Muslims has increased much more than the Christians, most of whom migrated to the West and Latin America. In addition, about 2 million people left the country between 1975 and 2005 during its civil war. Furthermore, the birth rate of Muslims is higher than that of the Christian groups.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean seem incapable of de-escalating. Although the situation on the Sirte-Jufra line in Libya remains under control thanks to Turkey’s diplomatic talks with the U.S. and Russia, last week’s explosion in Lebanon and the Greco-Egyptian maritime deal fueled tensions anew. Athens and Cairo recently announced that they had concluded an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement, directly challenging Turkey’s November 2019 deal with Libya. As a matter of fact, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias did not hesitate to describe that agreement as “the opposite” of the Turkish-Libyan treaty.

Turkey’s most recent steps in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean raised questions in foreign capitals about that country’s international standing. As Americans grappled with President Donald Trump’s call to delay the 2020 elections, the European media went berzerk over the Hagia Sophia’s reclassification as a mosque. On the one hand, they called on European leaders to respond to “Sultan” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom they charged with neo-Ottomanist expansionism. At the same time, European reporters appreciate that Erdoğan has been filling the power vacuum that the United States left behind, empowering his country in the process. They also understand that the Turkish president, as an experienced leader, does what his European counterparts fail to do and takes his country to a new level of agency.

Beirut blast and the fate of the Middle East

All eyes turned to Lebanon after Tuesday’s horrible explosion in Beirut. According to the Lebanese health minister, at least 154 people died in the accident and over 5,000 others survived with injuries. An estimated 200,000 to 300,000 citizens have been left homeless. Lebanon, where protests broke out in October over economic hardships, suffered a financial loss of between $10 billion and $15 billion from the explosion.

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Beirut blast and the fate of the Middle East
Sources of Lebanon s perennial political crises

Sources of Lebanon’s perennial political crises

Most analysts call the explosion at the Port of Beirut Lebanon’s Chernobyl. It is the moment of truth that put the last nail in the coffin of the nation’s rotten and dysfunctional political system.

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Turkey and Greece have been in conflict for the last several decades. However, mainly due to a series of anti-Turkish moves made by the Greek state and the transgressed explanations made by Greek officials, tensions between the two countries have risen dramatically in recent years. As a reaction to Turkey’s improvement of its defense industry and its effective interventions in regional crises, Greece has been trying to exploit every opportunity to produce anti-Turkish policies.

Hagia Sophia’s conversion into a mosque sparked a debate over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political agenda. Some observers believe that the administration has a to-do list yet to be completed. That claim boils down to the idea of Turkey’s gradual Islamization. Western media outlets, too, amplified that message by speculating that Erdoğan undid Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s legacy and revived the Ottoman Empire to bring back the caliphate. Others, out of excitement or sorrow over Hagia Sophia’s reopening, jumped on that bandwagon.

There is a significant responsibility for the European Union and NATO to facilitate finding a fair diplomatic solution to the recent efforts that try to contain and exclude Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque's reopening, an embodiment of Turkey’s free will, could not have been possible without Erdoğan’s leadership and the Turkish people’s confidence in him. Hagia Sophia’s "resurrection" has become a symbol of Turkey’s efforts to become a prominent player in the international arena. A missing piece of our national identity has thus been put back in place. No politician would ever dare to reverse this decision as long as Turkey remains a democracy.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have escalated in recent days amid Greek concerns over Turkey’s decision to issue a NAVTEX for the research vessel Oruç Reis to start drilling near the island of Kastellorizo. Athens, claiming that Ankara had violated Greece’s continental shelf, issued a counter-NAVTEX and placed its navy on high alert. Turkey rejected the Greek claim, reaffirming that the islands, including Kastellorizo, did not have a continental shelf, and deployed 15 warships to the area.

Both sides of the Libyan conflict are getting ready for the Sirte-Jufra front. The attack on al-Watiya air base, probably by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), demonstrated both parties’ determination. As Turkey took precautions to prevent future attacks, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar held talks with the interior ministers of Libya and Malta on Monday.

In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia occupied the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which officially belongs to Azerbaijan. Like the former Soviet Union, the United Nations also recognizes the region as part of Azerbaijan. Therefore, all steps taken by Armenia violate the main principles of international law and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. The occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia is similar to the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights: The occupier wants to control a strategically important region to take advantage of its foe.

The effective steps Turkey has taken to fill the deepening power vacuum in its region have hurt the interests of many foreign governments. Those countries are unsettled by Turkey’s transformation into a regional and global player with game-changing capabilities under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership.

Hagia Sophia’s reinstatement as a mosque resulted in a sudden spike in Western media reports about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Needless to say, almost all of those stories were full of accusations and speculation about Turkey’s agenda.

French President Emmanuel Macron once said the 'NATO is brain dead.' Considering all the confusion the alliance is facing at critical moments, this statement has some basis. Lack of trust among the member countries and lack of cooperation and coordination have become some pervasive features of the strongest military alliance in modern history.

This book focuses on the contemporary situation in the Eastern Mediterranean, which has become one of the main spotlights of international politics.

It has become something ordinary to run into a headline nowadays indicating that the numbers of coronavirus cases hit a record high in the world and in some of the countries, most prominently the U.S. In the last week, on multiple days daily corona numbers passed 200,000 a day in the world. Since the beginning of the outbreak in the world, the hot spots of the pandemic have been shifting around the world.

With Turkey's support, forces loyal to Libya's internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) liberated al-Watiya air base from Khalifa Haftar's forces on May 18. The recapture of the air base, a key strategic site in the western part of the country, marked the start of a series of defeats for Haftar forces and their eventual retreat from western Libya.