Macron's East Med provocations out of control

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean are escalating anew to dangerous levels. Turkey responded to a Greek-Egyptian maritime agreement, which undermined Germany’s mediation efforts, by dispatching the research vessel Oruç Reis, alongside frigates, to the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek military consequently went into high alert.

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Macron's East Med provocations out of control
A Vortex Of Conflict the Evolving Dynamics of Turkey s

A Vortex Of Conflict the Evolving Dynamics of Turkey’s Involvement in Libya

The analysis discusses the evolving dynamics of Turkey’s military involvement in Libya, laying out Turkey’s motivations for supporting the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, and examining how Turkey’s recent military achievements on the ground may leverage its hand diplomatically to secure a political settlement that protects its interests in Libya and in the Eastern Mediterranean.

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The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) celebrated its 19th birthday earlier this week. Over the course of its history, the movement has single-handedly governed Turkey – an accomplishment that has eluded all others in the history of the country’s multi-party democracy.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean seem incapable of de-escalating. Although the situation on the Sirte-Jufra line in Libya remains under control thanks to Turkey’s diplomatic talks with the U.S. and Russia, last week’s explosion in Lebanon and the Greco-Egyptian maritime deal fueled tensions anew. Athens and Cairo recently announced that they had concluded an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement, directly challenging Turkey’s November 2019 deal with Libya. As a matter of fact, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias did not hesitate to describe that agreement as “the opposite” of the Turkish-Libyan treaty.

Turkey’s most recent steps in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean raised questions in foreign capitals about that country’s international standing. As Americans grappled with President Donald Trump’s call to delay the 2020 elections, the European media went berzerk over the Hagia Sophia’s reclassification as a mosque. On the one hand, they called on European leaders to respond to “Sultan” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom they charged with neo-Ottomanist expansionism. At the same time, European reporters appreciate that Erdoğan has been filling the power vacuum that the United States left behind, empowering his country in the process. They also understand that the Turkish president, as an experienced leader, does what his European counterparts fail to do and takes his country to a new level of agency.

Turkey and Greece have been in conflict for the last several decades. However, mainly due to a series of anti-Turkish moves made by the Greek state and the transgressed explanations made by Greek officials, tensions between the two countries have risen dramatically in recent years. As a reaction to Turkey’s improvement of its defense industry and its effective interventions in regional crises, Greece has been trying to exploit every opportunity to produce anti-Turkish policies.

Turkey welcomes diplomatic efforts but is also ready to fight in Eastern Mediterranean

There is a significant responsibility for the European Union and NATO to facilitate finding a fair diplomatic solution to the recent efforts that try to contain and exclude Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.

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Turkey welcomes diplomatic efforts but is also ready to fight
A short pause in Eastern Mediterranean tension

A short pause in Eastern Mediterranean tension

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have escalated in recent days amid Greek concerns over Turkey’s decision to issue a NAVTEX for the research vessel Oruç Reis to start drilling near the island of Kastellorizo. Athens, claiming that Ankara had violated Greece’s continental shelf, issued a counter-NAVTEX and placed its navy on high alert. Turkey rejected the Greek claim, reaffirming that the islands, including Kastellorizo, did not have a continental shelf, and deployed 15 warships to the area.

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Both sides of the Libyan conflict are getting ready for the Sirte-Jufra front. The attack on al-Watiya air base, probably by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), demonstrated both parties’ determination. As Turkey took precautions to prevent future attacks, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar held talks with the interior ministers of Libya and Malta on Monday.

In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia occupied the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which officially belongs to Azerbaijan. Like the former Soviet Union, the United Nations also recognizes the region as part of Azerbaijan. Therefore, all steps taken by Armenia violate the main principles of international law and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. The occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia is similar to the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights: The occupier wants to control a strategically important region to take advantage of its foe.

Defeated coup of July 15, 2016 commemorated in panel by Turkish Communications Directorate

The effective steps Turkey has taken to fill the deepening power vacuum in its region have hurt the interests of many foreign governments. Those countries are unsettled by Turkey’s transformation into a regional and global player with game-changing capabilities under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership.

The Gülenist Terror Group's (FETÖ) July 15 coup attempt in 2016 was one of the darkest moments in Turkish political history. It was a traumatic event for the Turkish bureaucracy and military.

Hagia Sophia’s reinstatement as a mosque resulted in a sudden spike in Western media reports about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Needless to say, almost all of those stories were full of accusations and speculation about Turkey’s agenda.

French President Emmanuel Macron once said the 'NATO is brain dead.' Considering all the confusion the alliance is facing at critical moments, this statement has some basis. Lack of trust among the member countries and lack of cooperation and coordination have become some pervasive features of the strongest military alliance in modern history.

Turkey’s political parties are currently preoccupied with the proposed regulation of social media platforms, the legal status of Hagia Sophia, the parliamentary bill on multiple bar associations, the Istanbul Convention, the LGBT and Generation Z debates and the declining performance of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. In addition to those hot topics, there are also two permanent features: early elections and potential shifts between electoral alliances.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters Friday that his administration was keeping a close eye on the Libya situation. He referred to increased diplomatic contacts between Turkey and Libya, including Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and top military commander Yaşar Güler’s recent visits to Tripoli, as "shadow marking." Erdoğan stressed that those visits took place "as part of a certain plan."

Libya's urgent need is a strong stability, which is only possible with the elimination of spoilers like Haftar and his primary sponsor, the UAE

Following back-to-back successes by Government of National Accord, all sides seem to reorder positions

The analysis concludes by analyzing Turkey’s resurgent ties with the local Muslim communities in the Balkans (Albanians, Bosniacs, and Turks) and emphasizes Turkey’s contribution to regional peace and stability.

Germany's European Union presidency began yesterday. Given Chancellor Angela Merkel will quit politics in October 2021, she is likely to have a desire to make significant moves in the next six months to leave a lasting mark on European politics.