Has Turkey entered the second phase in Idlib?

Long-standing tension between Turkey and the Bashar Assad regime just turned into a hot conflict. At this rate, everything else will take a backseat to military operations. The critical question is whether Turkey has moved to the "second" stage in Idlib – holding territory, reinforcing observation posts and exercising control around them, and enforcing a safe zone, 30-40 kilometers deep, for Syrian refugees and displaced persons.

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Has Turkey entered the second phase in Idlib
Idlib crisis marks end of Sochi deal

Idlib crisis marks end of Sochi deal

Despite supporting opposite sides, Turkey and Russia have maintained dialogue for the last several years in the Syrian crisis. Together with Iran, another Bashar Assad supporter, they initiated the Astana Process. They have taken several significant steps to lessen the level of violence in the country. However, the Assad regime has insistently violated the cease-fire and continued its attacks against the opposition and civilian targets.

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Hardly a day goes by without the Bashar Assad regime bombing hospitals, schools and bakeries in Idlib. Since the Jan. 12 cease-fire, more than 130 civilians have died in military operations that undermine both Astana and Sochi peace deals.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, on a diplomatic offensive since the Berlin conference, visited Istanbul on Friday. The wide range of topics on her agenda included bilateral trade, the European Union, the situation in Idlib, the proposed safe zone, the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya and refugees, all of which stressed the importance of strengthening German-Turkish cooperation.

Last week an important international meeting was held in Berlin with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's diplomatic efforts. Turkey, Russia, the UAE and Egypt, as well as representatives from the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Congo, Algeria, United Nations and African Union, participated in the Berlin conference.

Turkish efforts to provide constructive solutions to Libya have pushed the international community to add crisis to their agenda

Urban legends about Turkey's foreign policy

Public scrutiny of foreign policy is the backbone of democracy. Criticism, when firmly rooted in a rational analysis of the balance of power and national interest, can be constructive. However, when critiques resort to populism, however, they become ideological.

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Urban legends about Turkey's foreign policy
Taming dissent key to diplomatic solution in Libya crisis

Taming dissent key to diplomatic solution in Libya crisis

In the summer of 2019, I had an opportunity to visit the western cities of Libya. As a group of researchers, we were trying to understand the dynamics of the complicated civil war in Libya.

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Libya's putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar left the negotiating table in Moscow last week, putting off the prospect of a cease-fire until this weekend's Berlin conference . The man trying to topple Libya's internationally recognized, legitimate government did so under pressure from the United Arab Emirates. He denied Russian President Vladimir Putin his diplomatic accomplishment, fueling disappointment and anger in the Kremlin.

SETA Security Radar attempts to anticipate the course of major security issues Turkey faces and how to develop and enhance sound and relevant responses within this increasingly challenging regional security environment.

TurkStream substantially contributes to bringing to the foreground an aspect of energy sources that strengthens cooperation and provides economic benefit rather than conflict.

Turkey is exerting a huge diplomatic effort to allow the fragile cease-fire in Libya to blossom into a lasting peace. Italian Prime Minister Conte visited the Turkish capital Monday, immediately following Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. At the same time, Turkey's foreign minister, defense minister and intelligence chief spent the day in Moscow to facilitate talks between Libya's various warring factions.

After President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's meeting with key leaders in the Libyan crisis, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, Turkey has come to the fore once again as a game changer in Middle Eastern politics. Turkey's diplomatic efforts produced a cease-fire at a time when Tripoli was about to fall into the hands of Gen. Khalifa Haftar. Turkey has mobilized many regional and global actors such as Algeria, Tunisia, Italy and Germany to take more initiative in the Libyan crisis.

With tensions between Iran and the United States de-escalating for now, there is talk about cease-fire agreements in Libya and Idlib.

The targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Quds Force, an elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the deputy chief of Hashd al-Shaabi forces in Iraq, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandisi, is a game-changer for Middle Eastern politics. Immediately after the attack that killed Soleimani, Iranian leadership threatened the U.S. and its allies in the region. Iran fired missiles at two American bases in Iraq in retaliation to the assassination of Soleimani. No casualties were declared in Iran's retaliatory attacks. Leaders of both countries escalated the tension, but they were careful not to let the crisis get out of control.

With Hungary, Bulgaria and Serbia to depend on TurkStream, Turkey’s importance to increase in terms of energy security

The conduct of German authorities toward terrorist groups varies as the country favors some, such as the YPG, hesitating to hold the terrorists accountable under the law and disregarding judicial requirements.

Following Turkey's decision to throw its weight on regional developments and be a more influential actor in the Mediterranean, countries trying to exclude Ankara and its rights, have been uneasy

The year 2019, which set the stage for extraordinary developments, has now ended. Living the fast life must be the distinguishing feature of modern times. Over the last year, the world talked about Brexit, NATO's future, U.S. President Donald Trump's impeachment, Israeli expansionism, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, protests in Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, France and Bolivia, trade wars, the S-400 deal, Turkey's local elections, the Syrian civil war, Operation Peace Spring, the assassination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Aramco attacks, Turkey's new indigenous car, Kanal Istanbul, U.S. sanctions, economic recovery, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya.

There will be a lot of questions about the state of global politics in 2020. The unpredictability and uncertainty of superpower behavior and instability of the international system generate a lot of question marks about the potential developments set to take shape in the coming year. Here are some of the issues and areas that we will continue to watch during 2020.

Turkey took three crucial steps in late 2019 to tilt the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Those military and diplomatic measures, which the country took in the Mediterranean theater to strengthen its hand at the negotiating table, indicate that the Libya question will fare as prominently in Turkey's agenda as the Syria file.