Fire in waters: Great Game in Mediterranean to contain Turkey

Turkey counters encirclement strategy by concluding maritime accord with Libya, unnerving inimical regional, global powers

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Fire in waters Great Game in Mediterranean to contain Turkey
Turkey Maritime deal with Libya 'red line' for Ankara

Turkey: Maritime deal with Libya 'red line' for Ankara

'No one can question' deal, 'especially France' says Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay

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Greece continues to escalate tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean amid calls from the European Union for dialogue. In addition to conducting military exercises, Athens deployed troops to the island of Kastellorizo (Megisti-Meis) and is preparing to conclude an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement with the Greek Cypriots – similar to Athens' controversial deal with Egypt. Last but not least, Greek leaders fueled tensions last week by talking about extending their claims in the Ionian Sea to 12 nautical miles.

One of the main reasons for Greece’s anti-Turkish policies is the dramatic change in the balance of power between Turkey and Greece. Turkey began to play in the upper league and became a major regional power. Therefore, Greece has been trying to prevent the further rise of Turkish power in the region, and for this reason, it is insistently trying to provoke Turkey and push it over its limits.

The recent tension and crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean are turning into a coordinated campaign to contain Turkey in an energy-rich strategic region. Turkey is the country with the longest shores in the Mediterranean and has been calling on international actors to negotiate a fair deal on the entire Eastern Mediterranean region based on mutual interests.

Turkey’s discovery of natural gas in the Black Sea looks to remain a hot topic for the foreseeable future.

More than natural gas

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced on Friday that Turkey's drillship Fatih discovered 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in the Black Sea. The largest discovery of natural gas in Turkey’s history, it is expected to be part of a broader reserve, marking the beginning of a new chapter for the country. It also represents a giant leap forward in its revolutionary attempt to end its dependence on foreign energy. The currently available natural gas reserve, which could meet Turkey’s energy demand for eight years, is priced at approximately $90 billion (TL 660 billion) based on current prices.

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More than natural gas
A wake up call for Turkey-US relations

A wake up call for Turkey-US relations

On Friday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, along with former energy chief and current Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, announced that Turkey had discovered some 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas – the largest deposit found in the country's history.

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s plan to remove Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan from power went down in the history of Turkish-U.S. relations. The fact that he made that statement some eight months ago does not make the situation any less grave. After all, those controversial words were not uttered by an inexperienced presidential candidate with no idea about foreign policy. Biden, who was President Barack Obama’s vice president, unveiled a thought-out and clear policy on Turkey.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean are escalating anew to dangerous levels. Turkey responded to a Greek-Egyptian maritime agreement, which undermined Germany’s mediation efforts, by dispatching the research vessel Oruç Reis, alongside frigates, to the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek military consequently went into high alert.

The analysis discusses the evolving dynamics of Turkey’s military involvement in Libya, laying out Turkey’s motivations for supporting the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, and examining how Turkey’s recent military achievements on the ground may leverage its hand diplomatically to secure a political settlement that protects its interests in Libya and in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) celebrated its 19th birthday earlier this week. Over the course of its history, the movement has single-handedly governed Turkey – an accomplishment that has eluded all others in the history of the country’s multi-party democracy.

For years now debate has raged in Washington, D.C., about anti-Americanism in Turkey. Various reports and analyses have pointed to it as the biggest spoiler of the bilateral relations between the two countries.

The current tension in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece is a consequence of Greece’s unfair and maximalist claims that violate Turkey’s rights in the region. Any sober analyst would agree on the unfair nature of the plans that Athens tries to impose on Ankara. These aggressive claims are supported by actors like France, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) who all have their own problems with Turkey.

Turkey’s party politics cannot seem to lose momentum. Two new political movements have recently emerged out of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Now, the Republican People's Party (CHP), which just held its 37th Congress, faces the same possibility.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean seem incapable of de-escalating. Although the situation on the Sirte-Jufra line in Libya remains under control thanks to Turkey’s diplomatic talks with the U.S. and Russia, last week’s explosion in Lebanon and the Greco-Egyptian maritime deal fueled tensions anew. Athens and Cairo recently announced that they had concluded an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement, directly challenging Turkey’s November 2019 deal with Libya. As a matter of fact, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias did not hesitate to describe that agreement as “the opposite” of the Turkish-Libyan treaty.

Turkey’s most recent steps in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean raised questions in foreign capitals about that country’s international standing. As Americans grappled with President Donald Trump’s call to delay the 2020 elections, the European media went berzerk over the Hagia Sophia’s reclassification as a mosque. On the one hand, they called on European leaders to respond to “Sultan” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom they charged with neo-Ottomanist expansionism. At the same time, European reporters appreciate that Erdoğan has been filling the power vacuum that the United States left behind, empowering his country in the process. They also understand that the Turkish president, as an experienced leader, does what his European counterparts fail to do and takes his country to a new level of agency.

Turkey and Greece have been in conflict for the last several decades. However, mainly due to a series of anti-Turkish moves made by the Greek state and the transgressed explanations made by Greek officials, tensions between the two countries have risen dramatically in recent years. As a reaction to Turkey’s improvement of its defense industry and its effective interventions in regional crises, Greece has been trying to exploit every opportunity to produce anti-Turkish policies.

Hagia Sophia’s conversion into a mosque sparked a debate over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political agenda. Some observers believe that the administration has a to-do list yet to be completed. That claim boils down to the idea of Turkey’s gradual Islamization. Western media outlets, too, amplified that message by speculating that Erdoğan undid Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s legacy and revived the Ottoman Empire to bring back the caliphate. Others, out of excitement or sorrow over Hagia Sophia’s reopening, jumped on that bandwagon.

There is a significant responsibility for the European Union and NATO to facilitate finding a fair diplomatic solution to the recent efforts that try to contain and exclude Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque's reopening, an embodiment of Turkey’s free will, could not have been possible without Erdoğan’s leadership and the Turkish people’s confidence in him. Hagia Sophia’s "resurrection" has become a symbol of Turkey’s efforts to become a prominent player in the international arena. A missing piece of our national identity has thus been put back in place. No politician would ever dare to reverse this decision as long as Turkey remains a democracy.