In the first debate before the November elections, President Biden's performance against Trump could be a game-changer for the race. The Trump campaign has succeeded in raising doubts about Biden's age, awareness, and vitality, and has also sought to create controversy around the format and neutrality of the CNN-hosted debate. If Biden performs well, the Trump camp will likely dismiss it as biased due to CNN's perceived favoritism towards Democrats. However, if Biden makes any gaffes or appears mentally unsteady, they plan to exploit this to the fullest. It wouldn't be surprising to see Trump continue his classic political style of declaring victory regardless of the outcome. While a strong performance from Biden won't end Trump's campaign, any doubts about Biden's mental sharpness will make it much harder for his campaign to recover.

When we look at the G7 summit communiqué, we see an extensive list of problems related to various crisis areas and challenges in the international system. From Ukraine to Taiwan, from artificial intelligence to energy, leaders have pledged support for different initiatives in many problematic areas. While the joint declaration is filled with a series of good intentions, it is difficult to say that there are clear proposals leading to solutions. Although there are references to many initiatives previously agreed upon in other platforms, it is impossible to find agreement proposals that can provide lasting solutions in crisis areas such as Ukraine, Taiwan, and Palestine. This situation highlights how difficult it is for Washington to produce concrete solutions around comprehensive strategic policies and underscores the weakness of Biden's global leadership record.

The European Parliament election results indicate a rise in support for center-right and far-right candidates. Pro-European Union groups, which hold the majority in the parliament, saw the biggest losses among liberals and greens. This shift suggests that Europe will inevitably lean more towards right-wing policies in the coming period. Ignoring the rise of the far-right and persisting with left and liberal policies will only strengthen the right, making a shift towards more right-leaning politics by the center inevitable. Similarly, in American politics, the political cost of left and liberal policies has been bolstering Trump, leading Biden to adopt more centrist and right-leaning policies as the elections approach. While these rightward shifts may provide short-term solutions, it is clear that without a comprehensive political agenda, they will be insufficient to curb the rise of the right.

In the presidential race, Trump demonstrated that he would not take an ideological stance on the abortion issue, which Biden wanted to make a central agenda. Instead, he refused to be cornered on this issue. Conservative Republican groups expected Trump to support a law that would impose abortion restrictions across the country. However, Trump, having seen how supporting Trumpian candidates who advocated for abortion bans hindered their electoral success in midterm elections, did not want to face the same fate.

In American elections, especially in swing states, the turnout of party voters is crucial. Trump, while seeking to win over independent voters against Biden, also needs to court Republican voters. Haley's announcement of withdrawing from the race and not endorsing Trump in her speech aimed to remind the party's internal opposition that cannot be easily ignored. Haley indicated this by stating that Trump would "make an effort to win the votes of those who didn't vote for him." Despite the knowledge that Trump would comfortably win on Super Tuesday and secure the party nomination, a quarter of voters in many states expressed their dissatisfaction by voting for Haley. Haley's ability to garner significant support without spending substantial amounts on campaign ads last week demonstrates the presence of a considerable number of people dissatisfied with Trump's candidacy.

In the recent primary elections held in Michigan, a state where Arab and Muslim voters could have a critical impact on the November 2024 presidential race, a clear message was sent to Biden regarding Palestine. Michigan, known as a swing state, saw Trump win over Clinton by a narrow margin of 11,000 votes in 2016. In this week's Democratic Party primary elections, the fact that over 100,000 voters opted for the 'uncommitted' option against Biden constitutes a critical warning to the President. The highly effective 'Dump Biden' campaign launched before the primaries was evidently impactful. Despite Biden's attempts to address the Palestinian backlash with some statements to the press before the primaries, it was revealed that these remarks did not suffice to appease the Palestinian sentiment within the party. So far, Biden has been gauging the reactions of young people, African Americans, and Muslims within the party through polls, but the results of the Michigan primaries indicate a shift in voting behavior among these demographics.

The world was not in good shape on the second anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A quick look at the most recent developments alone would suffice to appreciate that we are entering a period of fragmentation and high risks.

The recent comments by special prosecutor Robert Hur, appointed by the US Department of Justice, describing President Biden as a 'senile, well-intentioned, elderly man' reignited the debate about Biden's age. Biden's enduring image of being elderly and lacking dynamism seems to be his biggest disadvantage in the November elections. Holding the title of the oldest sitting president in American history, Biden will break his own record as the oldest presidential candidate in the November elections. The fact that Trump, at 77, is running against the 81-year-old Biden will leave American voters with the choice of electing their oldest president. While some argue that age discrimination is unfair, Biden's advanced age has become a significant point of discussion that could influence the outcome of the election. In addition to Biden's memory issues, his controlled and brief appearances in public, contrasted with Trump's more dynamic demeanor, present a serious handicap.

Donald Trump, who seeks reelection in the United States, made headlines with his most recent comments on NATO. It is a well-known fact that he had previously described NATO as “obsolete” and condemned NATO allies that did not meet the 2% defense spending target. This time around, the former U.S. president told a crowd in South Carolina that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that does not meet its financial obligations. He made those remarks shortly after the Republicans blocked military aid to Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the war on NATO’s fifth enlargement in an interview.

Internal political disputes in the United States have reached a new phase, jeopardizing aid flow to Ukraine. Republicans, who announced they would not support aid to Ukraine until border security is ensured, deemed Biden's concessions on border security insufficient. More precisely, they stalled the issue at the behest of Trump to potentially exploit the immigration crisis in the presidential elections. Especially after this strategy was accepted in the House of Representatives, it was rejected by Senate Republicans. With the passage of a $95 billion aid package, the Senate shifted the responsibility of aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to Trump-aligned Republicans. If the House of Representatives rejects this aid package under the pretext of the border crisis, it will mark a new phase in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Avoiding a choice between "war continuation" and "diplomatic solution" until the November elections and managing the current situation should not come as a surprise.

The remarks made by Trump, who is widely expected to run for president as the Republican Party candidate, regarding NATO once again underscored how fragile America's claim to global leadership is. Trump threatened to pressure certain NATO member countries to increase their military spending or face consequences. By stating that Russia could do whatever it wants with these countries, Trump escalated his anti-NATO rhetoric to new heights during his presidency. Trump's longstanding questioning of the concept of collective defense by the United States and his failure to protect a NATO member country practically spells the end of this military alliance. The loss of the deterrent effect of NATO's Article 5-based collective defense concept would not only undermine the alliance's guarantees but also signify the end of America's leadership within the Western alliance. As America engages in a global power struggle with Russia and China, it will become increasingly difficult for the country to conduct this struggle within the Western alliance without establishing unity.

Representative Mike Johnson, the majority leader of the House of Representatives, became the latest political casualty of former President Trump this week with two significant defeats. Johnson's attempt to remove Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas failed due to three Republican representatives voting against it. Subsequently, Johnson's move to vote on a $17.6 billion aid package for Israel also failed with opposing votes from both parties. Johnson's lack of political leadership experience is among the significant reasons for this situation. Trump's reluctance to resolve issues such as the immigration crisis and Israel in Congress, which he wanted to use in his presidential election campaign, makes it difficult for Republicans to act unitedly. When the legislative process becomes election-oriented, Congress cannot produce solutions or shake off its dysfunctional image.

With the American Supreme Court now considering former President Trump's Colorado case, the debate around the 14th Amendment has become more tangible. The Colorado State Supreme Court had ruled that Trump engaged in an uprising against the American state during the January 6 events, and therefore, he could not participate in elections in that state. Similar decisions were made by the Maine State Secretary amid ongoing legal challenges against Trump using the 14th Amendment. The Supreme Court's ruling in the Colorado case will determine the fate of efforts to prevent Trump from being on the ballot. The conservative majority in the Court raises expectations of a decision favoring Trump, but the rationale behind the decision is crucial for American democracy.

The recent decision by the Colorado Supreme Court regarding Trump has the potential to shape the outcome of the November 2024 presidential elections. Due to his support for the events of January 6th, where he was involved in an uprising against the state, Trump may not be able to get his name on the ballot as a presidential candidate in this state. The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits individuals who have engaged in insurrection against the government from holding federal office. While this provision has not been enforced for a long time, the Colorado Supreme Court has revived the debate. As the legal process heads to the Supreme Court, the question of whether the courts or the voters should determine the fate of the American president has resurfaced.