Hamas' acceptance of ceasefire and Israel's Rafah operation
Despite Hamas announcing its acceptance of the ceasefire on Monday, Israel stated that the agreement did not meet their desired level. However, they announced that they would send a delegation to Doha for negotiations. Additionally, they indicated that the Rafah operation would proceed as planned, showing no intention to heed Washington's demands. Despite CIA Director Bill Burns being in the region for the Doha talks and the Biden administration's clear opposition to the Rafah operation, the Netanyahu government shows no signs of backing down. Reports of the Biden administration halting arms shipments to Israel, thus delaying Netanyahu's Rafah operation, had made Hamas' acceptance of the ceasefire a critical turning point. However, Netanyahu's efforts to both continue and expand the conflict from the outset pose the biggest obstacle to ceasefire efforts.
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The 'tragedy' of US policy vis-a-vis Israel
The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran's direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran should be 'proportional,' also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, Iran's UAVs and missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, making the job of the Iron Dome relatively easier. However, Iran's low-intensity and controlled attack with low-cost weapons demonstrated that in a more 'real' war, Israel's task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel's defense to the forefront, seems to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that American foreign aid could reach the approval stage thanks to the attack on Israel indicates how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have decreased.
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The 'immediate ceasefire resolution' issued by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) due to the United States' abstention indicates that the Biden administration's political pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu persists. Despite the White House emphasizing that the decision is not binding and that there are no changes in policy, Netanyahu canceled the visit of the delegation he planned to send to Washington immediately after the UNGA decision. The fact that the Biden administration, which has been diplomatically protecting Israel with its veto power since October 7th, chose to abstain this time suggests that the crisis in bilateral relations has reached its peak. While Netanyahu may lean towards Trump, who has advocated for ending the conflict, Trump's remarks have increased American pressure.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has passed a resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza for the month of Ramadan. The 14 members council members voted in favor of the resolution, which was proposed by the 10 elected members of the council. Only the United States abstained from the vote. After the vote, there was an unusual round of applause in the council chamber, showing how much the international community wants the bloodshed to end.
Friday marked the fifth day of Ramadan. Unfortunately, there is still no cease-fire in Gaza, and Israel continues to kill Palestinians waiting for food supplies. Earlier this week, Israeli troops killed six Palestinians and injured 83 others as they waited in line to receive a bag of flour. That was not the first time, and it won’t be the last.
U.S. President Joe Biden recently said that they are working on a six-week emergency cease-fire, describing Rafah as a red line. Yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his commitment to conduct military operations in that area. The Israeli army perpetrating atrocities in Rafah, where 1.4 million Palestinians have been starving during Ramadan, would be a new source of shame for the world and the Muslim community. Since the U.S. exerts greater influence over Israel than any other nation, one cannot help but keep an eye on the Biden administration's (in)action.
Biden's red line...
President Biden publicly revealed his disagreement with Netanyahu over the Gaza issue in his 'red line' statement over the weekend. Biden stated that a military operation into Gaza was a red line for the Rafah that Netanyahu had planned. Facing heavy criticism from his own base for not calling for a ceasefire for a long time, Biden finally started to mention a ceasefire. On the other hand, by stating that he would never abandon Israel, Biden showed that his red line was not that strict. He also said that Netanyahu's policies were harming Israel. While expressing his intention to continue financing defense systems like Iron Dome, which protect Israel, Biden also mentioned that they could not tolerate the deaths of another 30,000 Palestinians and urged Netanyahu to be careful about the deaths of innocent civilians. It is no coincidence that Biden is making such statements at this stage of his presidential campaign, as the message of the Democratic electorate in Palestine was clear after the primary results.
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Will there be cease-fire in Gaza during Ramadan?
For the past five months, Israel has been targeting the innocent people of Gaza, with the United States and most Western governments continuing to mobilize their resources to support Israel’s brutal attacks against Gaza. By now, the attacks have become Israel’s longest intensive military operation against the Palestinians. On the one hand, while the Palestinian people are at their most vulnerable position and facing genocide, hundreds of millions of people around the world are chanting their just cause. On the other hand, as Israel continues its longest and most brutal attacks against the Palestinians, it has lost legitimacy not only in the eyes of the international community but also in the eyes of most of its supporters. It seems that this is the main paradox of post-Oct. 7.
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In American elections, especially in swing states, the turnout of party voters is crucial. Trump, while seeking to win over independent voters against Biden, also needs to court Republican voters. Haley's announcement of withdrawing from the race and not endorsing Trump in her speech aimed to remind the party's internal opposition that cannot be easily ignored. Haley indicated this by stating that Trump would "make an effort to win the votes of those who didn't vote for him." Despite the knowledge that Trump would comfortably win on Super Tuesday and secure the party nomination, a quarter of voters in many states expressed their dissatisfaction by voting for Haley. Haley's ability to garner significant support without spending substantial amounts on campaign ads last week demonstrates the presence of a considerable number of people dissatisfied with Trump's candidacy.
It was Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who said that a hurricane was brewing in the West. He made that remark in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País where he accused Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, of assuming a completely pro-Israel stance. Recalling that the EU’s policy toward the Russo-Ukrainian war and Israel’s massacres in Gaza came with a hefty price tag, Borrell predicts a hurricane in the West, warning against the approaching “circle of violence” – a reference to Dante’s Inferno – and urging Europe to wake up.
The effect of Israel's attacks on the Gaza Strip and tensions in the Middle East were discussed Friday at the Hope or Deception? Imagining a New Ground in the Middle East panel at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
Today’s world is facing rapidly changing security dynamics and increasing geopolitical competition. This competition, which has accelerated and morphed, especially with the COVID-19 pandemic, has also created a deep security crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s attacks in Gaza.
In the recent primary elections held in Michigan, a state where Arab and Muslim voters could have a critical impact on the November 2024 presidential race, a clear message was sent to Biden regarding Palestine. Michigan, known as a swing state, saw Trump win over Clinton by a narrow margin of 11,000 votes in 2016. In this week's Democratic Party primary elections, the fact that over 100,000 voters opted for the 'uncommitted' option against Biden constitutes a critical warning to the President. The highly effective 'Dump Biden' campaign launched before the primaries was evidently impactful. Despite Biden's attempts to address the Palestinian backlash with some statements to the press before the primaries, it was revealed that these remarks did not suffice to appease the Palestinian sentiment within the party. So far, Biden has been gauging the reactions of young people, African Americans, and Muslims within the party through polls, but the results of the Michigan primaries indicate a shift in voting behavior among these demographics.
Türkiye and Egypt stand at a pivotal historical moment in the evolution of their bilateral relations. Following 12 years marked by rivalry and conflict, the visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Egypt has the potential to open a new chapter in Ankara-Cairo relations. This visit offers both nations the opportunity to forge a novel model of cooperative relations on numerous contentious issues. More importantly, it could herald the onset of strategic cooperation in the realms of defense and security, areas in which such collaboration was previously nonexistent. Before the joint news conference in Cairo, the two leaders signed the Joint Statement on the Restructuring of High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council Meetings, signifying both countries’ readiness to recalibrate their relations.
Some analysts think ‘it’s too early’ to say all disputes will be resolved while others say two NATO allies still maintain ‘positive strategic relationship’
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits the Middle East this weekend for the fifth time since the Oct. 7 attack.
Following Türkiye’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership in the Turkish Parliament, the U.S. State Department notified Congress of a $23 billion (TL 698.52 billion) sale of fighter jets to Türkiye and an $8.6 billion sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets to Greece, another ally in the NATO. The sale to Türkiye includes 40 Lockheed Martin F-16s and equipment to modernize the existing fleet of 79 F-16s. Greece will receive 40 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters and related equipment.
The Biden administration has been under pressure, as reported in the media for some time, to bring an end to military operations, facilitate humanitarian aid, and address the post-war governance of Gaza, especially considering the lack of positive response from the Netanyahu government. Reports suggested that Netanyahu's government did not respond positively to these requests, and there were indications that Washington's patience was wearing thin. The latest news, where Biden reportedly told Netanyahu that the ultimate solution is a two-state resolution, was quickly countered by Netanyahu stating that this possibility is not on the table, creating a significant setback for Washington. With these statements, Netanyahu not only declared the obvious but also made it clear that under his leadership, there would be no genuine peace process, embarrassing the American President, his biggest supporter, in the eyes of the public.
We're talking about the possibility of Israel's attacks on Gaza triggering a regional war after October 7. Recent developments actually indicate that we are already in the midst of a regional war. However, the fluctuating intensity of such conflicts and the fact that the parties involved are not always clearly defined make it difficult to label it as a regional war. The evolution of warfare between countries, occurring in complex ways across different arenas and activating the capacities of various parties, has made traditional, all-encompassing wars increasingly rare. Many countries now prefer proxy wars due to their lower cost, lower risk, and deniability.
A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.
President Biden's message during his visit to a church in the state of South Carolina and the reactions of some protesters seemed like a summary of the dilemma he will face in preparing for the presidential elections. In 2015, a perpetrator advocating white supremacy killed 9 black citizens who came to the church for worship, a message that was discussed in the public eye as a result of Trump's message on the eve of the 2016 presidential elections. By starting his 2024 campaign with a visit to this church, Biden tried to show that black votes would be critical. By making a reference to Trump's expressions about immigrants 'poisoning' the country's blood, he conveyed the message that the real 'poison' is the idea of white supremacy. The messages given to the political electorate in South Carolina, a critical state that brought Biden to candidacy in 2016, stand out as an effort to reach out to black voters, which will play a critical role in the upcoming election.
