Washington's efforts for 'damage control' in Israel

During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

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Washington's efforts for 'damage control' in Israel
2024 A challenging year lies ahead

2024: A challenging year lies ahead

The events of 2023 have significantly diversified potential geopolitical and strategic scenarios for 2024.

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Biden, in a ceremony where he criticized antisemitism this week, recounted the political pressures he faced for stating 35 years ago, 'Being Jewish is not necessary to be a Zionist. And I am a Zionist.' Biden has previously used expressions like 'If there was no Israel, we would have to invent it' and linked the security of Jews to the existence of Israel. It can be politically surprising that Biden, in his second term, insists on his Israel policy, risking American national interests. The only explanation for Biden's insistence might be an irrational and ideological perspective based on assumptions that many Jews might not accept.

The current situation amounts to a collapse within. Both Democrats and Republicans help create an atmosphere of repression as criticizing Israel and supporting the Palestinian resistance become subject to prohibition. Indeed, university presidents are being questioned and forced to resign over their supposed failure to prevent calls for genocide. The presidents of some of America’s leading universities – UPenn, MIT and Harvard – were recently reprimanded by members of Congress and were asked to step down.

Protest movements against Israel's operations in Gaza have sparked a reexamination of the limits of freedom of expression in the United States. Efforts by pro-Israel groups to equate criticism of Israel with anti-Semitism have become organized and systematic. The campaign, conducted through advertisements in media outlets and lobbying activities in Congress, aimed to convey the message that crowds taking to the streets to defend Palestinian civilians were contributing to the rise of anti-Semitism. However, censorship applied by some of the world's leading universities to groups supporting Palestine, the fear of being labeled as anti-Semitic, and threats to withdraw support from influential donors demonstrated how the boundaries of academic freedom could be defined. The experience of a prominent figure losing their job or being marginalized due to their pro-Palestinian stance also illustrates how organized political forces can effectively use the trauma of anti-Semitism as a weapon.

Perpetrating a massacre in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a backlash at home and from the international community. As President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned Netanyahu that he was destined to lose power, a prominent member of the Israeli opposition, Yair Lapid, argued that the time had come to replace the Israeli prime minister and form a new government.

What will the Riyadh summit bring?

Ahead of the meeting, the organization issued a statement to underscore that the event was held in response to the “dangerous developments” regarding the Palestinian question and the city of Jerusalem. In other words, that statement mentioned the protection of Jerusalem, the OIC’s original objective and the prevention of the massacre in Gaza simultaneously.

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What will the Riyadh summit bring
Erdoğan's messages from the Tashkent summit

Erdoğan's messages from the Tashkent summit

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan, for the 16th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit. Besides attending ECO’s General Assembly meeting, he held meetings with the host, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as well as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and President Ersin Tatar of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

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On October 30, 2023, President Biden took a significant step by signing an executive order that charts a course for the utilization of AI in the United States, aiming to both harness its potential and mitigate the associated risks. Before this directive, it's crucial to note that President Trump made history by signing two executive orders in 2019 and 2020, marking the initial official forays into AI governance by an American president. Trump's focus primarily centered on how the government uses AI and strategies to maintain U.S. leadership in this field. In contrast, since assuming office, President Biden's official approach to AI has predominantly emphasized ethical and responsible implementation. His primary focus is ensuring that the application of AI adheres to ethical standards and societal responsibility, particularly in its impact on American citizens.

The Biden administration hasn't fundamentally altered its unwavering support for Israel since the beginning of the crisis. However, in the face of heavy criticism from the international community, regional countries, and even its own party and American public, especially in the past two weeks, it has started emphasizing the humanitarian crisis more. As Washington increasingly finds itself isolated on the international stage, it has begun to add qualifiers, such as the need to protect civilians and ensure humanitarian aid access, while reiterating its full support for Israel. Reports have also suggested that Israel is preparing for a large-scale invasion of Gaza, but Washington is recommending a narrower operation that takes into account the safety of hostages and civilians. The change in rhetoric seems to reflect the administration's growing awareness of the need to alleviate public pressure.

US backing Israel with weapons, aircraft carriers, consultants and more, according to experts

The argument that Hamas bears responsibility for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, as put forward by Israel, has not convinced the American public. Unlike previous operations and wars, Israel's attempts to justify targeting civilians in Gaza and its insensitive remarks about civilian casualties have undermined its public relations campaign. Faced with the perception that Israel is willing to risk American citizens held by Hamas, the Biden administration has intensified efforts to delay a ground operation in Gaza. While criticisms of Israel from the progressive wing within the Democratic Party may not be enough to change the Biden administration's full support for Israel, they do indicate an increase in public sensitivity to the humanitarian situation, particularly regarding the need for Gazan civilians to reach safety.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens to spread across the region and exacerbate great power competition. As United States military bases in Iraq and Syria come under drone attacks more and more frequently, a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea shot down cruise missiles that the Houthi rebels in Yemen fired at Israel – harassing fire from Iran’s proxies.

The non-Western world viewed U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel as unconditional support for that country’s heavy bombardment and blockade of the Gaza Strip. Blaming Hamas – “the other team” – for the killing of more than 500 Palestinians at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital, the U.S. President neither shared any evidence nor talked about forming an international committee to investigate what happened.

Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has been underway for 12 days. Preparing for a ground operation, the Israeli army kills hundreds of Palestinians every single day. The strict blockade of Gaza, which prevents the delivery of humanitarian aid, has already rendered hospitals in the besieged Palestinian enclave unable to operate. As relief supplies pile up in Egypt, the tragedy in Gaza worsens. The following remark by Philippe Lazzarini, Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), best summarizes what is happening: “Gaza is being strangled, and it seems that the world right now has lost its humanity.”

In President Biden's visit to Israel on Wednesday, it wouldn't be surprising if he reiterates his 'unconditional' support while also placing veiled conditions on the Gaza operation. Statements by Secretary of State Blinken during his shuttle diplomacy in the region highlighted how uncomfortable regional countries are with Israel's attacks. Biden's meetings with King Abdullah of Jordan, President Sisi of Egypt, and Palestinian leader Abbas indicate his reluctance to provide Israel with unwavering, unconditional support and his consideration of regional dynamics. Despite his initial statement of unconditional support for Israel, it could be argued that he insists on the condition that it does not escalate into a regional conflict.

Last Friday, Israel asked the United Nations to relocate 1.1 million Palestinians to the south of Gaza within 24 hours. Although the U.N. warned that such an evacuation was impossible and likely to entail devastating humanitarian issues, the Israeli army continues to prepare for a ground operation after a weeklong heavy bombardment. Driving the Palestinians to the south is widely seen as Israel’s multistep plan to completely eliminate Hamas’ entire capacity – including its tunnels. Experts argue that Tel Aviv made that decision to make up an excuse to kill civilians and reach its actual goal of making Gaza unhabitable. There is talk of the possibility of Israel forcing all Palestinians to move from Gaza, which it has blockaded for 16 years, to Egypt. It goes without saying that such a development would not only put Egypt in an extremely difficult position but also trigger humanitarian crises and radicalization in the region. Let us recall that the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, along with its decision to turn a blind eye to the humanitarian tragedy in Syria, helped various radical organizations to emerge or grow stronger.

Former President Trump's Middle East policy was extremely pro-Israel. Trump declared Jerusalem as Israel's capital to satisfy his evangelical base, arguing that Israel could normalize relations in the region without solving the Palestinian issue through the Abraham Accords. He presented the "Deal of the Century," a plan largely based on Israel's priorities, promising economic investments for Palestine.

Hamas’ surprising attack on Israel on Oct. 7, followed by Israel’s ongoing and disproportionate military operation in Gaza, has the potential to become a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern history. Predicting the extent of Israel’s incursion into Gaza remains uncertain, and Hamas faces immense challenges in maintaining its resistance.

Türkiye carried out airstrikes in Syria and Iraq last week in response to a terrorist attack against the Interior Ministry in Ankara. During that period, one statement and one picture attracted plenty of attention.

The political dynamics within the American Congress and the activities of lobbying groups have long been significant factors negatively impacting Turkish-American relations. Since the 1970s, Congress has constrained the broad authority of the White House in foreign policy, leading to decisions against Türkiye on issues such as Cyprus and Armenia. In recent years, Congress has extended its influence into areas like Syria and defense cooperation.