Tensions between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda date back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) took over power in Rwanda, while Hutu militias and extremists responsible for the genocide fled to the DRC. Rwanda intervened in the DRC in 1996 and 1998, viewing these Hutu groups as a security threat. Since then, the eastern part of the DRC has been a constant area of activity for the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group.
The M23 is one of the most important actors operating in the DRC territory, allegedly supported by Rwanda. While the M23’s goals are officially to “protect the Tutsi population,” the group’s activities are largely related to control of strategic mining areas in the eastern part of the DRC. The fall of cities such as Goma, the capital of North Kivu and Bukavu means that the eastern part of the DRC has been de facto under M23 control.
Power struggle in East Africa
The DRC-Rwanda tension is not limited to the two countries; there is a multi-actor conflict network in which regional powers such as Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, South Africa and Tanzania are directly or indirectly involved. While the M23 rebel group is trying to seize the lands in the east of the DRC, it is also aiming to take control of the valuable minerals in this region through a war economy. The DRC government, on the other hand, aims to consolidate its own power in domestic politics and gain more support from the international community by fighting the M23.
Uganda, as a country that has historically had close relations with both Rwanda and the M23, can sometimes shift the balance between the DRC army and the M23 in line with its own interests. The East African Community (EAC), on the other hand, generally appears to be on the side of the DRC. Indeed, the EAC also contributes to the resolution of conflicts in the region. Meanwhile, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) plays a leading role in providing military support to the DRC through the SAMIDRC peacekeeping mission. However, the limitations that SADC member countries face constrain military and logistical resources to the DRC, making their influence in the current process limited.
This crisis in the region has heightened the risk of a power vacuum emerging in the east of the DRC and of the ongoing situation turning into a regional war. If reports of increased Rwandan support for the M23 are accurate, this will deepen regional security risks and prompt other actors to intervene more directly. Indeed, the greater involvement of regional powers in the process raises questions about how global actors might respond if the conflict escalates. In other words, this region is likely to become a proxy war zone.
Interests of global actors
The ongoing crisis in the region has the potential to shape the interests of global actors. In particular, economic resources will enable actors such as the U.S. and China to intervene more in the conflict. Indeed, the U.S. is expected to strengthen its ties with Rwanda to protect its regional interests. On the other hand, it is also said that the U.S. is close to the DRC government to China's influence on its mining assets. However, the sustainability of this policy remains uncertain.
The current separation between the U.S. and Europe and the differences in strategic priorities also reveal the potential to further deepen the instability in the region. As a reflection of global uncertainties, the geopolitical divergence between the U.S. and Europe affects regional crises. Indeed, covert interventions can be expected in the region in the near future. When looking at the period before the U.S. elections, it was clearly seen that Western countries were acting together to limit China’s economic influence in the DRC. However, current tensions between Europe and the U.S. are adding instability. This division within the West makes it more difficult to adopt a unified strategy for the current crisis in the region. Another actor is France, which appears to be pursuing a balancing policy in the crisis by maintaining economic ties with Rwanda while preserving close relations with the DRC.
War economy, natural resources
Even though it is one of the countries with the wealthiest underground resources in the world, this wealth is fueling war and instability instead of peace and prosperity in the country. Gold, coltan, tantalum and other strategic minerals are among the indispensable raw materials for global technology giants. However, the extraction and sale of these minerals are largely based on a war economy. The biggest motivation behind the conflicts in the DRC today is the struggle to control these valuable resources.
Although the M23 rebel group emerged with the claim of protecting the rights of the Tutsi community in the region, in reality, it is gaining great economic power through the mineral resources in the regions it controls. The seizure of the coltan fields in Rubaya, in particular, was a critical move that increased the financial power of the M23. Today, the financial resources of the M23 are based on three main channels: taxes and fees collected from the mines, controlling the illegal trade in the region and directly selling minerals to the international market. Therefore, this model causes the war to become not only a military but also an economic issue. While groups like M23 establish war economies by controlling local resources, the DRC army struggles to halt their expansion.
The war economy in the DRC is not limited to local actors. The world's leading technology companies are indirectly becoming a part of this system. Minerals such as coltan and tantalum are used in many areas, from smartphones to computers, batteries to space technology. The supply chain of these minerals is of critical importance for global giants.
In 2010, the U.S. and the European Union sought to regulate the use of these minerals through legislation. Although the Dodd-Frank Act mandates supply chain transparency, its enforcement remains weak. Minerals processed in the DRC are often smuggled into the international market via Rwanda, making it difficult to trace their true origin.
Forestalling disaster
If the crisis in the DRC grows, a disaster scenario will arise not only for the two countries but for the entire region. Failure to control the conflicts may lead to major powers intervening in the crisis, albeit indirectly, to protect their military and economic interests in the region. In the long term, transparent control of natural resources in the DRC and strengthening regional peace initiatives are critical to ending the war economy. It will be beneficial for regional stability if actors such as Türkiye, who value peace diplomacy, take on a constructive role in the resolution process.
What is happening in the DRC is not just a domestic issue for one country but also an important indicator in terms of understanding how the global system works. Such a deep crisis will affect many areas, from the global economy to diplomacy. Therefore, this crisis serves as a case study for understanding the dynamics of the global economy and the role of international powers. If the proper steps are not taken, this crisis may have greater humanitarian and economic consequences not only regionally but also on a global scale.
