A poll from a public opinion research company close to the opposition was published, showing that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has once again become the leading party. This research firm has been showing the Republican People's Party (CHP) as the leading party every month since the local elections. However, when the AK Party emerged as the top party in its latest monthly poll, the opposition’s public opinion shapers were infuriated, claiming the poll results did not reflect reality.
Before the May 14, 2023, general elections, the opposition viewed public opinion research as a “public relations activity.” They claimed they would win the elections in the first round with 65% of the vote. As a result, when Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, former leader of the CHP and then-candidate for the presidency, lost the elections to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, they disappointed their voters. Since the local elections, they have shown a similar tendency. It seems they have not learned from the past. Their anger toward the results of a research company stems from this.
Those angry because the CHP was polled as the second party actually said some correct things when analyzing the political reality after the local elections. For instance, they said that local elections and general elections are different. Since the CHP’s vote share hasn’t changed for years, the votes received in local elections are from other parties. Whether the result from these voters will be permanent depends on the politics the CHP will produce.
When such analyses came to the fore, Özgür Özel, the current chair of the CHP, tried a new political language. On foreign policy, normalization efforts and his attitude toward conservative sociology, his rhetoric differed from the Kılıçdaroğlu era. However, Özel’s trial politics were difficult to maintain because they were tactical. Similar tactics were tried during the Baykal (leader of the CHP before Kılıçdaroğlu) and Kılıçdaroğlu eras but could not be sustained as they were not genuine.
Politics should be grounded in authenticity. Otherwise, it turns into a back-and-forth game. Since the transition to democracy, the CHP has been searching for a savior and trial politics. This search continues. Two examples from the past week are sufficient to understand what I mean. Someone who insulted Erdoğan and his supporters was quickly embraced. They were hosted in a prominent position in the protocol. When it became clear that large sections of society, except for the party’s core base, were uncomfortable with this, Özgür Özel had to apologize. At the graduation ceremony of the Military Academy, the sword-wielding action of the cadets, organized and unsanctioned, was politicized. It was said that the cadets were sending a message to the government. Özel made statements that pitted Harbiye, the state's schools, against Imam Hatip schools. He provided material for those who see Imam Hatip schools as problematic.
To return to the beginning, the votes the CHP received in the March 31, 2024, local elections were not its own. Just as in the presidential elections, the votes the presidential candidate received differed from those of the party; the same dynamic was in play in the local elections.
I repeat this constantly: the political literacy of Türkiye’s electorate is very high. They calculate well how to vote in each election. Voters have the opportunity to compare in politics. Those who produce politics, seek genuine solutions to society’s problems and present a vision for the future will gain the support of voters.
After the elections, voters began watching the parties. They particularly waited to see if the ruling party had gotten the message. In post-election polls, even the core voters of the ruling party were reluctant to respond to surveys. Now, slowly but surely, the core voters of the ruling party have started to voice their decisions. To emphasize, my remarks concern the core voters of the parties. For years, the CHP’s vote ceiling couldn’t exceed 25%. Perhaps it has increased by a few points recently but hadn’t even come close to the vote share it received in the local elections. Attitudes toward the CHP’s new period of vacillating politics have begun to clarify, and these results emerge from the polls. Even the CHP’s call for early elections is not approved by the voters who lent them their votes in the local elections.
The results of the polls conducted during this period indicate a trend. This is also normal since there is a long time until the elections. Since the local elections, a significant portion of the electorate has been watching politics and the parties. They continue to compare. Those who shape their politics by observing trends will come out ahead.
