The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the U.S. took place on Jan. 20, 2025. He said during his election campaigns, "There will be no war from Day 1 when I come to the office." It is too early to tell if he can achieve its objectives and commitments to ending wars in Europe and the Middle East, but it is obvious that Trump is more powerful than he was in his first term. He took the majority of both the House and Senate and will be in full control of the United States government for the next two years.
Predicting Trump's strategies
Leaders and people wonder how Trump will address geopolitical rivalries and achieve his commitment to end wars. We expect radical executive decisions to be forthcoming in his second term. One of his decisions will be to rely less on the United Nations, the WTO and the G-7. He will focus on the G-20 summits and pay attention to BRICS. His 100% tariff threat on all goods from BRICS countries, if they attempt to replace the dollar with BRICS currency in international trade, was one of his first announcements after winning the election. In his second term, it seems he will try to eliminate any opportunities China can exploit.
The first signals of his foreign policy approach indicate that Trump will not address geopolitical rivalries acting as a policeman of the world. For instance, during his election campaign, he accused Taiwan of imitating the U.S. chip industry and threatened Taiwan to impose tariffs. It seems that he will seek bilateral negotiations to pursue the national interest of the U.S. rather than acting as a policeman of the world. To achieve his objectives, he will seek a balance of power between the U.S. and China. That is why Trump already picked Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as his National Security Advisor, both China hawks. In other words, neither Europe nor the Middle East will be the primary focus of Trump's attention. As a means of refocusing his attention on China, he will reach a compromise with Russia. This is the reason why Trump made the statement to end the war in Ukraine in a day.
In his first term, Trump was against the war. He believed in negotiation through strength. In the 45th U.S. administration, he was doing it from the point of strength. In the 47th U.S. administration, he will do it from the point of weakness. In the past four years, the U.S. has become weaker in many respects against its adversaries, such as China, Russia and Iran. Today, Trump knows the weaknesses of the U.S. He will seek the national interest of his country through his "America First" policies, focusing on the border, energy, rare minerals and economic security instead of continuing to be the policeman of the world.
On that path, Trump will pursue a realistic approach. The reality requires the U.S. to eliminate its "soft bellies" to remain the sole superpower of the world. The road to eliminate these soft bellies passes through collaboration with Türkiye. Mediterranean and Black Sea are complex regions at the center of a new chess board since the return of great power rivalry. Türkiye is geographically located at the center of this most critical region. There are wars in Türkiye’s north and south and all over its borders. This is one of the primary reasons Türkiye needs peace and stability in its surrounding area. This is also one of the major factors that enable Türkiye to play an increasingly mediator role in various conflicts.
At the center of Eurasia
The balance of power in Europe is between the European Union, Russia and Türkiye, and the trade between them is significant for all three parties. Neither one of these can hold its power without the other two. Their interdependence makes them strong and vulnerable at the same time. In other words, this interdependence creates the balance of power in the western Eurasia.
Interdependence on not only trade but also energy security is one of the main determinant factors in this balance of power. Ukraine’s decision to stop the transit of Russian gas to the EU member states resulted in the loss of a significant market for Russia. This situation also highlighted the continued vulnerability and dependence of certain EU member states on energy supplies from Russia. After this decision taken by Ukraine, the TurkStream gas pipeline came to the agenda for some EU member states that suffer from energy shortages.
Trump understands these balances of power in Europe and the Middle East, where Türkiye is one of the main pillars. The two leaders, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Trump, know how to work together well. On that note, we can understand why Trump complimented Erdoğan and Türkiye on what lately transpired in Syria.
In an ensuing statement, he clearly stated that "Erdoğan is smart, and he is behind the Syrian takeover." He continued in his statement, saying that the U.S. has nothing to do in Syria. The Syrians and the rest of the region must resolve their problems without America. Additionally, Trump is fully aware that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have to be resolved via the mediation of Türkiye. That brings us back to the U.S. foreign policy objectives of the Trump administration. It will solely be focused on China. As a result, Trump will put Europe and the Middle East on the back burner. His recent comments on Panama and Greenland support this argument.
Will that in turn lower the number of conflicts around the world? Only time will tell. Nevertheless, if the first Trump term is an indication, one thing is certain: There is likely to be another negotiation process with China. In other words, Beijing will experience another Trump term in Washington, who is expected to resume his "negotiation with China" policy. That, in turn, should give the world some hope that there will be no World War III if nothing else.
[Daily Sabah, Aylin Ünver Noi - Erbil Günaştı January 21, 2025]
