The Saudi-Iranian Rift and Turkey's Position
Ankara, one of the most geopolitically significant players in the Middle East, is determined to take a neutral path on the Saudi-Iranian conflict, yet still, in the near future, a strategic alliance between Ankara and Riyadh rather than Tehran, seems more likely.
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Saudi-Iranian Tensions: Regional Turmoil and Turkey
With the increasing tension in relations with Iran due to the Syrian crisis, while relations with Saudi Arabia have been gaining speed in recent times, Turkey is required to take a more careful approach in politics.
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Iran's sectarian expansionist policy forces the Turkish government to back the Saudi government. However, Turkey, as the only country able to prevent the power struggle between the two countries, is aware of the dangers of a possible sectarian war and thus calls the two countries to reconcile.
2016 will be a year of important decisions, especially for Kurdish nationalists.
Although full of ups and downs, Turkish-Israeli relations have been experiencing their lowest point since the raid on the Mavi Marmara flotilla. The process of rapprochement, however, is looking to reshape relations for a more positive future.
The policymakers in Ankara are required to accomplish a structural transformation program for socio-economic development, while fighting a low-intensity war in the southeast and overcoming the international repercussions of the crisis with Russia. Not an easy job for sure. But then, who said that politics was an easy job?
2015 and International Security
2015 saw many incidents that are likely to continue in 2016, revealing the ineffectiveness of international and national security systems in preventing new threats like cyberattacks and showing countries that they need to update their security infrastructure to deal with 21st century threats.
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Self-Governance: The PKK's New Weapon
The PKK's new strategic discourse in its fight against the state is determined by the HDP's leadership which has recently brought up the self-governance' debate. In this way, the HDP's organic connection with the PKK has been proven with the party's own hand.
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The HDP made significant progress in the political arena, but it must keep in mind that a toxic mix of violence and cross-national alliances will not secure legal status for their voters.
Over the next decade, Turkey will have no choice but to deal with the consequences of the PYD's potential rise to power in northern Syria. As such, it is simply unrealistic to expect Turkey to negotiate with the PKK at this time.
The most critical question about security in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to be the crises between China and its neighbors in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.
We will most probably continue to have more information about Syria policy in the next few years, and these new accounts will enable a better analysis of the policy of the Obama administration since the beginning of the crisis.
