The budget talks at Parliament have been so intense that they overshadowed the rivalry between the government and the opposition’s vision documents. Speaking at Parliament, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu escalated tensions, leading to a fist fight among parliamentarians. The budget talks are always intense, yet this year’s deliberations have been particularly tense because it’s an election year. Accordingly, the opposition has been making very serious accusations. Kılıçdaroğlu, too, has resorted to a two-pronged approach, talking about “making amends” yet fueling polarization. Most recently, he accused Türkiye of having become a “narco-state” to set a new bar for his aggressive political discourse. In truth, politicians must take into account some risks ahead of next year’s elections. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently issued a warning, identifying four threats or risks that Türkiye could encounter: The economy, asylum seekers, diplomacy and counterterrorism. On Thursday, Sabah’s Okan Müderrisoğlu aptly highlighted the fifth: Attempts to conduct psychological operations and systematic disinformation campaigns. At a time when even the United States suffers from election meddling, it is necessary to keep in mind that foreign governments and intelligence services, which are unhappy with Türkiye’s “autonomous” foreign policy, could take certain steps. In this sense, it is the national and democratic responsibility of all politicians to set the right tone and focus on the vision of each presidential candidate by taking into consideration the above-mentioned risks. Certainly, the People’s Alliance and the opposition want to win the presidency in the first round and control the majority of parliamentary seats. However, no one can be certain that the election, which will be fiercely contested, will be over in the first round. Since we do not know the opposition candidate(s), the available polls can only provide some insight into the potential result. Yet the picture will become clearer once the actual candidates start campaigning. Let us recall that many pollsters released numbers, which favored the opposition, ahead of the 2018 presidential election. The result, however, was radically different. Moreover, Türkiye has not yet reached the home stretch since the opposition bloc, the “table for six,” keeps postponing its decision on a joint presidential candidate. Since Erdoğan is running for sure, some observers believe, the opposition delays the announcement to stop him from running a customized campaign. At the same time, that delay limits the time that the opposition’s potential candidate will have to introduce themselves to the electorate. We will have to wait and see the result before deciding which method is more effective.

Unprecedented result

After five years under the presidential system of government, Türkiye faces the possibility of an unprecedented result in the 2023 elections. It is unclear how Turkish voters will act if the presidential race has to be settled in the second round, whereas the parliamentary seats will have been allocated on the same day as the first round. I predict that Erdoğan will win next year’s election in the first round. However, one could always think about the possibilities. In case of a two-round election, there will be three potential outcomes: (1) The People’s Alliance could have the parliamentary majority. (2) The “table for six” could have the parliamentary majority. (3) They will both fail to win the parliamentary majority, making the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) more relevant. Under all three circumstances, the Turkish people will presumably opt for Erdoğan as a strong leader that can govern Türkiye in a turbulent world. In the first scenario, it would make no sense to move forward without Erdoğan. The second and third cases, in turn, would highlight Erdoğan’s balancing and stabilizing role. [Daily Sabah, December 12 2022]