President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan heavily criticized Türkiye’s opposition parties last week, arguing that he had failed to encounter “an opposition of our caliber and quality.” Recalling those opposition leaders refused to learn from their mistakes despite losing 17 times in a row, the president complained that the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), could not “alter its fascist DNA” and engaged in fascist behavior by questioning the legitimacy of the ballot box. Erdoğan also said that CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu could “not even retreat honorably” and refused to explain what he had promised to various parties, “including the terrorist organization’s political extensions.” Insisting that Kılıçdaroğlu and the CHP oligarchy’s shamelessness frustrated especially those citizens who voted for the main opposition party out of respect for the republic’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, President Erdoğan made the case that the People’s Alliance alone was equipped to address Türkiye’s problems: “There is no point in flogging a dead horse.” Erdoğan’s strongly worded critique will frustrate the opposition parties, which suffered a heavy defeat in the May 2023 elections, ahead of next year’s municipal elections. After all, the president not only says that the opposition alliance was problematic and ultimately unsuccessful; he also insists that the opposition cannot break out of its current state of fragmentation by focusing on the CHP and its chairperson. One might obviously ask whether targeting the opposition would not help them come together or remind them to embrace “anti-Erdoğanism.” Would Erdoğan’s comments not throw a lifeline to Kılıçdaroğlu, the CHP’s embattled chair who is experiencing problems within the opposition alliance? It is possible to ask many more questions.

Another victory in local elections?

Having launched his party’s March 2024 municipal election campaign on May 28, 2023, President Erdoğan doesn’t seem to care about such questions. Instead, he disseminates messages that will weaken opposition candidates and understands that he has the upper hand politically. In other words, Erdoğan wants to crown his success in the May 2023 elections with yet another victory in next year’s municipal elections. Unable to shake off the disappointment of their latest election defeat, the opposition parties cannot come together based on anti-Erdoğanism alone anymore. They have already gone down that road and failed despite forming a “grand coalition.” The opposition, whose "consensus document on common policies" has long been forgotten, lacks the resolve to unite around any set of principles or policies. They do not appear to have any shared views or models except working together in some provinces. To make matters worse, Erdoğan’s attacks might stall the opposition bloc’s attempts to reflect on what happened in May 2023. Specifically, Good Party (IP) Chair Meral Akşener’s effort to carve out a third way could prove ineffective under the current circumstances.

Deepening crisis of opposition

Maintaining control over the CHP’s delegates, Kılıçdaroğlu will not breathe a sigh of relief thanks to Erdoğan’s critique either. After all, pro-CHP commentators have already gone further in criticizing Kılıçdaroğlu than the president. In this sense, even opposition voters cannot take issue with Erdoğan taking a jab at the main opposition party’s defeated leader. It is highly likely that enraged opposition voters would rather tell Kılıçdaroğlu that “even Erdoğan” cannot save him. The main opposition leader remains unlikely to develop a new discourse, tell a new story or build a new alliance architecture. That’s why he will probably question the election’s legitimacy, make even more serious accusations and portray the country’s economic challenges as a matter of national survival. Accordingly, there is reason to expect a fierce election campaign. Over the next months, escalating political tensions might lead to the dissemination of anti-Arab messages with reference to asylum seekers – an attempt to weaken Türkiye’s soft power, target international students and hurt the tourism industry. The local election campaign will focus on the poor track record of CHP-affiliated mayors and preparing Istanbul for the next major earthquake. Politically speaking, “the opposition’s crisis” represents a much more useful topic than “anti-Erdoğanism.” Urging voters not to beat a dead horse, President Erdoğan updates his story with the “Century of Türkiye” concept. [Daily Sabah, August 28, 2023]