The Turkish people elected their mayors and mukhtars on Sunday. In a country where no election is unimportant, we find ourselves surrounded by a public debate over the politics of this new era. In other words, the post-election period will keep us occupied. The fact that Türkiye is not scheduled to hold any elections for the next four years does not mean that Turkish politics will be less intense. In a world where the international system becomes more chaotic and competitive by the day, we will discuss many foreign policy issues from war and terrorism to trade routes and shifting positions. Observers describe the potential spillover of the ongoing conflict between Russia and the West to Eastern Europe and the Balkans as a nightmare scenario. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently said that the world entered a new period of war: “I don't want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past. It's real, and it started over two years ago.”

Erdoğan's key visits and domestic priorities

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will launch a serious diplomatic effort against that backdrop. The Turkish leader is scheduled to visit Baghdad and Washington, and to host Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi over the next two months. The ongoing massacre in Gaza, the Russo-Ukrainian war, the fight against PKK-YPG terrorists in Iraq and Syria, defense and trade agreements with African nations and the quest for peace in the Caucasus remain among the top items on his agenda. Meanwhile, on the home front, the country will focus on the economy, the state of the political opposition and the new constitution. Ahead of Sunday’s election, predictions about the election result’s impact received no less attention than the campaigns. Post-election scenarios thus attracted interest from the Turkish people and outsiders alike. Specifically, many observers noted that the opposition would face a serious crisis if the Republican People’s Party (CHP) were to lose the mayoral race in Istanbul. Others said that CHP and the Good Party’s (IP) leaders would face scrutiny and people would become disinterested in politics altogether. Yet others maintained that Ekrem Imamoğlu’s potential defeat would end his political career and his re-election would turn him into “the opposition’s leader.” Yet there were three points that such commentaries on the post-election situation seemed to be missing.

Turkish politics: Dynamics, municipalities and future visions

First, Turkish politics has always been dynamic and significant. The truth was that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would have generated additional momentum for its "Century of Türkiye" vision by taking back some municipalities from CHP. The political opposition would have possibly experienced some turbulence if CHP were to lose Istanbul, but would assume a new stance by 2028 anyway. Finally, Imamoğlu would have kept his eyes on 2028 even if he were to lose. The second point is that Türkiye has a presidential system of government, which offers the government five years of stability and keeps the opposition alert by generating two opposite poles within the political arena – irrespective of municipal elections. Let us recall that the Turkish people just voted for the fourth time since the presidential system’s 2018 adoption. The previous three contests were the 2018 presidential-parliamentary elections, the 2019 municipal elections and the 2023 presidential-parliamentary elections. Right now, President Erdoğan has a mandate for four more years. During this period of consolidation for the presidential system, the country will take bold steps in many areas including the economy and foreign policy. At this time, it would make more sense to keep in mind the heavy price that the opposition paid for demanding an early election and possibly forming alliances in 2023. Finally, it is important to take into account the impact of potential changes, risks, conflicts and opportunities in this chaotic international climate on Turkish politics. [Daily Sabah, March 30, 2024]