Cease-fire in Lebanon: Catalyst for regional shifts?
After approximately 14 months of conflict, a cease-fire between Israeli and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Nov. 27. Mediated by the United States and France, the cease-fire is fundamentally based on the revival of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. According to this agreement, Hezbollah forces will withdraw north of the Litani River, while Israeli forces will retreat south of the Blue Line. This process is expected to be completed within 60 days.
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ICC Ruling, UN Veto, and Biden's Israel Legacy
The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) historic arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant has given President Biden yet another "opportunity" to showcase his unwavering support for Israel.
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With the full and unconditional support of the United States and Western European countries, the Israeli government has been attacking Middle Eastern countries and committing genocide against Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. The first step of Israel’s expansionist policies in the Middle East has been the increased occupation of Palestinian lands.
The genocide Palestinians are living through has divided the world into two: the oppressors and the ones who fight against them
In the wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood, the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel initiated a large-scale military operation against the Gaza Strip. The asymmetric and intense military attacks ended up with genocide. So far, Israel has killed more than 42.000 Palestinians, most of which are innocent children and women, wounded more than 90,000 and displaced more than 2 million people. Israeli security forces hit civilian residential areas, including schools, hospitals, ambulances, mosques, churches, tents, refugee camps and the U.N. centers. Eventually, Israeli forces destroyed almost all of the Gaza Strip. With the unconditional support of Western countries such as the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom, Israel violated all principles of international humanitarian law in front of the world.
President Erdoğan dedicating a significant portion of his UN speech to Gaza highlighted not only the importance of the Palestinian issue for Türkiye but also its central role in regional peace and global governance. The moral clarity and call to action on this matter, which has been a recurring theme in Erdoğan’s past speeches, carried considerable weight. The UN, established to ensure international peace and security, has been paralyzed in addressing the Palestinian issue due to its structural problems and inability to move beyond great power rivalries, illustrating the crisis of the international order. Türkiye’s insistence on keeping the Palestinian issue on the global agenda is crucial for its national interests, regional balance, and the future of the international system.
Crumbling, dying United Nations: Who will resurrect it?
While United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was calling for the restructuring of all institutions of international governance, including the U.N., in his opening speech at the 79th General Assembly, Israel was conducting its 800th air sortie against Lebanon and dropping its 2,000th bomb over Lebanon. In the aftermath of Israel’s ongoing attacks, reports state that more than 500 people, including 100 children, were killed in Lebanon.
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The UN from Washington's Perspective and Türkiye's Insistence on Reform
President Biden’s final UN speech of his political career coincides with perhaps the least effective period in American diplomacy. Since October 7, the Biden administration has stood by as Israel’s actions have severely damaged American diplomatic credibility in the eyes of the “international community.”
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The Middle East region has been in political instability since the eruption of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions in 2011...
In response to Israel's striking of Iran's consulate in Syria, Ayatollah Khamenei's statement of "retaliation will be given" has heightened the possibility of the regional proxy war escalating into direct conflict. Since October 7th, Netanyahu has been attempting to expand the conflict by targeting Hamas and Shia militia objectives in both Beirut and Syria. The relatively controlled continuation of the "regional war" relied on Iran and Hezbollah refraining from militarily supporting Hamas. However, Khamenei's remarks suggesting that striking the Iranian consulate would mean targeting Iranian soil have also put Washington on high alert.
Russia wouldn't want to lose face in Tehran despite having bowed to Israeli pressures to limit their support for Bashar Assad and Hezbollah. Willing to do anything to weaken the Assad regime and Iran, Israel openly supports a federal solution.
