Recalibrating Türkiye-Gulf relations

As a reaction to certain regional and global developments, a large-scale normalization process was initiated in the Middle East at the beginning of 2020. As part of this normalization, Türkiye and the Gulf states normalized their relations three years ago to increase their autonomy and effectiveness in international politics.

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Recalibrating Türkiye-Gulf relations
Türkiye is rising actor in the Gulf

Türkiye is rising actor in the Gulf

Deepening Türkiye’s ties with those three Gulf states in trade, defense, technology, communication and security amounts to more than just reciprocal investments. After all, Türkiye has been gaining influence over the balance of power in that region. The country now seeks to form strategic alliances with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi – as it did with Doha several years ago. It is also possible for other Gulf states to become part of that trend.

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Monday as part of his tour of the Gulf states. Over the course of four days, he will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) with a focus on investments and commercial relations. However, it is possible to argue that Erdoğan’s trip goes beyond strictly economic relations and marks the beginning of a new chapter in Türkiye’s relations with the Gulf.

Following the Arab Spring, all the nations in the Middle East started to pursue a phase of regional softness after a protracted era of strife and rivalry. In many areas of the Middle East, the normalization agenda is being implemented in a coordinated manner based on specific concerns.

The visit had global-level dynamics. On one hand, both countries want to decrease their respective dependencies on global powers and need to cooperate with one another. On the other hand, they want to increase their global autonomy. They have begun to instrumentalize a global power against the other.

Türkiye’s influence has been growing, globally and regionally, as a balancing power. In this sense, Ankara must refrain from becoming a party to regional polarization while remaining active in the region.

In the aftermath of MBS and Lapid's visit to Ankara

Ankara hopes to be a balancing factor in the region that generates security and stability.

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In the aftermath of MBS and Lapid's visit to Ankara
Synchronization question in Turkey's normalization policy

Synchronization question in Turkey's normalization policy

Ankara seeks to properly synchronize the simultaneous normalization processes with its partners for a strategic balance of power in the region

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'One could expect normalization between Ankara and Riyadh to occur as quickly as the process between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates'

It may not be easy for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to open a fresh chapter quickly, but both have already taken good steps toward it

The Turkish government's new diplomatic initiative with its regional and global partners is based on logic, while the opposition still has no idea why it rejects the process

Now or later, Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s resuming realist and pragmatic politics could bring about broader regional implications.

Normalization is not an emotional decision to “get along with everyone.” Nor does it occur at one side’s request. It goes without saying that all states revisit their policy choices with an eye on emerging geopolitical trends. They make calculations and make new choices if necessary. That, too, is the driving force behind the pursuit of normalization by regional powers, including Turkey.

Afghanistan turned out to be an area of cooperation between Ankara and Washington, as U.S. policymakers began to describe Turkey as 'an invaluable partner in the region' – instead of 'our so-called ally.'

The Saudi-UAE alliance's risky ventures, which designate Iran as an archrival and Turkey as an adversary, makes them vulnerable to demands from the U.S.-Israel axis and undermine their international credibility

No one was shocked by U.S. President Donald Trump's expression of solidarity with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) last week.

The missing or killing of the Saudi journalist and intellectual, Jamal Khashoggi, will be remembered as a milestone not only for Saudi domestic politics, but also for the international perception of the Saudi regime.

Riyadh has a long history of abductions and enforced disappearances when it comes to dissidents.

The storm of polarization in the Middle East looks far from an end. At this point, the various players are not even trying to hide their true intentions, which used to be kept to themselves or in private circles.

The doctrines of President George W. Bush and Obama made long-term uncertainty innate to the region, which would change the security and alliance structures of the Middle East. But how?

The fact that Shiite militants pose no threat to Western capitals represents the main reason why Washington chooses to ignore the risks, including acts of violence against the Sunni population in Syria and Iraq.