Mosul after DAESH Internal and Regional Dynamics
The paper addresses the possible scenarios which might unfold in the post-DAESH era in Iraq and the Middle East.
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Why Does Turkey Care About Mosul?
Turkey is seeking to protect its economic and political interests in northern Iraq while fighting against PKK and ISIL.
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The belief that DAESH will face major transformations and will begin its downward spiral is very optimistic. To talk about post-Mosul DAESH scenarios, one must wait for a complete loss of the group’s territories.
Forty-nine hostages were rescued from ISIS after a successful operation. Considering the delicacy of the situation, the supervision and conduct of this operation appear worthy of commendation.
However, in order to marginalize ISIS in its countries of operation a more comprehensive policy that would diminish its power and influence in Syria simultaneously with Iraq is needed.
How has the rebellion against the Maliki administration in Iraq started? Who are the Sunni groups other than ISIS fighting in the field? What is the ultimate goal of these groups?
ISIS and the Geopolitics of Iraqi Oil
No need to say that this will create a substantial additional bill for energy-dependent countries like Turkey, and multi-pronged strategies shall be prepared beforehand to ensure energy security.
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What is next for ISIS and Maliki?
It will again depend on the Maliki administration to turn this situation to its advantage. Changing track and following a more inclusive policy and an attempt to win hearts and minds of people in Iraq will be his best chance to stay in power.
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The difficulty with dealing with ISIS is also partly because of its demographics which has a lot to do with the use of multiple strategies.
The attack on Mosul and the fall of the second-largest city in Iraq may also have some serious consequences regarding the future of international and regional relations in the region.
