The TurkStream pipeline, a milestone project for both Turkey and Russia, marks its first anniversary since it delivered the Russian natural gas to Turkey and Europe on Jan. 8, 2020. In a general evaluation of its first year, the pipeline can be considered as a success for both Turkey and Russia, while its achievements are expected to increase more in the following years.

Two news stories with completely opposite titles appeared in Western media last week. The first story was about Turkey allegedly provoking its NATO allies by testing the S-400 air defense system. The other related to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks on the “unprecedented” level of cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine, viewing the Ukrainian leader’s decision to award President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with the medal of honor as problematic for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. That development, The Times argued, could be detrimental to Erdoğan’s relationship with Putin.

The clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which erupted on Sept. 27, have now entered the fourth week. Although the two warring sides reached an agreement declaring humanitarian cease-fires twice, they could not maintain the truce. The Armenian side insistently broke the cease-fires and continued its attacks on both the Azerbaijani military and civilians.

What is the current situation of natural gas in Turkey? What is the impact of Turkey’s first discovery in the Black Sea? What policy changes can we expect after the second discovery?

This analysis focuses on the position of different U.S. actors regarding the Turkish-Russian energy relations and, specifically, on TurkStream which is one of the most important projects undertaken by the two states.

The ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan – which began with the former's recent aggression – has escalated rapidly since Azerbaijan retaliated in kind. Baku has indeed turned Yerevan's miscalculation into an opportunity to regain lost territories. So far, Azerbaijan has made some remarkable military gains to liberate some of its territories from the Armenian occupation.

Recent tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have multiple drivers including the race for exploitation of energy resources, long-standing maritime disputes, and the broader geopolitical competition between regional powers. While Turkey’s recent assertiveness of her rights in the Eastern Mediterranean drew renewed attention to the region, this round of confrontation has been long in the making.

Western media’s opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is possibly the world’s worst kept secret. Western commentators immediately jump to conclusions about the supposedly expansionist goals of Erdoğan’s Turkey whenever Ankara launches a fresh foreign policy initiative. Experts in Washington, Paris, Athens, Abu Dhabi and elsewhere make the same arguments in an attempt to contain Turkey’s influence to an unbearable extent. At the heart of those comments lies the claim that the Turkish president has isolated his country in the international arena, which will lead the nation to a disaster and that the Turkish people deserve better.

For the last month, there have been increasing reports about the rising tension in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece. Although tension in the Aegean Sea is not uncommon due to several disputes in regards to maritime delimitation, this time there are broader issues. There is confusion among the international observers about the nature of this tension and it could be appropriate to note a few points on what led to it.

Turkey counters encirclement strategy by concluding maritime accord with Libya, unnerving inimical regional, global powers

One of the main reasons for Greece’s anti-Turkish policies is the dramatic change in the balance of power between Turkey and Greece. Turkey began to play in the upper league and became a major regional power. Therefore, Greece has been trying to prevent the further rise of Turkish power in the region, and for this reason, it is insistently trying to provoke Turkey and push it over its limits.

Turkey’s discovery of natural gas in the Black Sea looks to remain a hot topic for the foreseeable future.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced on Friday that Turkey's drillship Fatih discovered 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in the Black Sea. The largest discovery of natural gas in Turkey’s history, it is expected to be part of a broader reserve, marking the beginning of a new chapter for the country. It also represents a giant leap forward in its revolutionary attempt to end its dependence on foreign energy. The currently available natural gas reserve, which could meet Turkey’s energy demand for eight years, is priced at approximately $90 billion (TL 660 billion) based on current prices.

On Friday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, along with former energy chief and current Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, announced that Turkey had discovered some 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas – the largest deposit found in the country's history.

What is the current natural gas situation in Turkey? What does the future hold for Turkey’s energy market? How will Turkey’s economy and foreign policy be affected?

Turkey finds 320 bcm of natural gas reserves