Iran's political horizon: Navigating shifts and reformist hopes
Iranians are preparing to go to the polls on June 28, and this election seems to be more exciting than recent parliamentary and presidential elections. The reason for this is the candidacy of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.
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Power struggles and policy shifts in post-Raisi Iran
The tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash appears to have plunged Iran into a new period of uncertainty. Questions linger about the cause of the crash, and the political landscape in Iran is, as always, poised for significant shifts. Given the turmoil the country has faced in recent years, predicting the direction of these changes is particularly challenging. Despite the uncertainties, anticipating a revolutionary shift would be imprudent. However, Raisi’s death disrupts the existing power structure and could profoundly impact Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.
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As the municipal election campaign gained momentum with the unveiling of mayoral candidates and the fine-tuning of their campaigns, two major developments took place in foreign policy: the Turkish Parliament’s approval of Sweden’s NATO admission on Tuesday and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to the Turkish capital, where Türkiye and Iran signed 10 agreements.
Traditionally, Türkiye-Iran relations have been defined by a mix of competition and cooperation. Sharing a long land border and possessing a multidimensional historical depth, numerous dynamics simultaneously affect the relationship between the two countries.
Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.
As uncertainty, competition and conflict gain momentum within the international system, Türkiye engages in diplomacy to play a more defining role in global and regional crises.
Erdoğan's messages from the Tashkent summit
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan, for the 16th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit. Besides attending ECO’s General Assembly meeting, he held meetings with the host, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as well as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and President Ersin Tatar of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
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The cost of America's $6 billion prisoner exchange with Iran
The Biden administration is careful not to create expectations regarding the prisoner exchange agreement with Iran, aiming to emphasize that such "humanitarian" efforts are separate from the nuclear issue. Immediately after the successful exchange, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran, indicating that the situation is not merely a simple prisoner swap. The fact that the exchange also involves the release of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue frozen in South Korea for humanitarian purchases shows that it is more than just a prisoner exchange. The U.S. government, perhaps to avoid any political cost domestically, is both imposing new sanctions and claiming that it has no connection to the stalled nuclear negotiation process.
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We asked the leading Iran experts in Turkey and around the world to analyze the reasons behind the protests in Iran, the demands of the protestors, the Iranian administration’s attitude, the likely future of the protests and their impact on Iran. We present the assessments of those experts below.
What kind of Türkiye does Iran prefer? Which Türkiye can satisfy Iranian regional expectations?
Under the current circumstances, it seems impossible for the U.S. to discover a new kind of engagement that would contain Russia and China in the Middle East as well as address Iran’s problems with Israel and the Gulf. It is highly likely that the fresh diplomatic efforts by Washington, which cannot even appreciate Türkiye’s balancing and stabilizing/securing role, will prove to be a complete waste of time.
Unless the U.S. policy toward Iran changes, it seems difficult for the EU and its member states to open a new page in relations with Iran
The recent votes in Israel, Armenia and Iran have affected both the region and those countries' relations with Turkey. In particular, Tel Aviv's new Prime Minister Bennett's discriminatory statements and Tehran's new President Raisi's conservative attitude are on the agenda
This week's attack on the facilities of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, was no mere skirmish among proxies. Iran has allegedly fired missiles, loaded on drones, to strike at the heart of the Saudi oil industry. Although Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed the attack, already some fingers are pointing to Tehran. Hence a series of questions: have tensions in the Gulf, which have been escalating since May 2018, already spun out of control? Is the policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran giving way to war? Why did U.S. President Donald Trump escalate tensions right after sacking John Bolton, his hawkish national security adviser? What will be the Trump administration's military response to an attack that it considers a casus belli? As world leaders pack their bags for the United Nations General Assembly's opening session, the world is still trying to answer those questions.
Çankaya Palace in Ankara was home to a historic trilateral summit on Monday. The presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran met for the fifth time in two years to discuss the situation in Idlib, refugees, the most recent developments in northeastern Syria and the proposed constitutional committee.
An important meeting was held between the leaders of Turkey, Iran and Russia in Ankara on Sept. 16. The three actors' positions were close in the last trilateral meeting. The leaders of the three countries agreed on the structure of the constitutional commission and reiterated their commitment to the territorial integrity of Syria. They also supported the idea of reducing the tensions in Idlib province.
Despite its ups and downs, the Astana Process is the only serious option currently playing a decisive role to create a permanent solution in the Syrian crisis
This week some unexpected developments have occurred in international politics which signaled the direction of change in the international system.
At the Sochi summit, Erdoğan, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, reiterated their commitment to work together in finding a solution to the Syrian conflict.
